The growth is always exponential. One person will always infect n people. If that is even a hair above 1 that means exponential growth. If it’s a hair below that means no growth. If they are actually seeing growth, then they have already started to see the beginning of exponential growth. If n is very close to one, it could be easy to be wrong about whether there is growth or not and it could change back and forth very easily as well.
How a respectable newspaper reports it, I suppose in that it’s not sensationalism like Radio 4 now too, it’s that bad atm.
Data has shown the coronavirus variant first detected in India, known as B.1.617.2, is continuing to spread across England, and is thought to be driving a rise in cases. It is believed to be both more transmissible than the variant first detected in Kent, which previously dominated, and somewhat more resistant to Covid vaccines, particularly after one dose.
They have hardly talked about any of BJ scandals recently, including the Dominic Cummings.
It’s bad… This is a tough listen, I don’t blame you if you skip it, but it tells a lot about the state of our country atm.
I’m not educated enough for that Jman, sorry, but it’s not an independent broadcasting operator when anything comes from BBC head offices which is a lot.
Every case is the potential for a new variant, and every new variant brings the possibility of vaccine escape. We need to get cases down and keep them down.
Even under your hyper technical “well actually” definition for exponential growth, as all growth, The statement “in the early stages of exponential growth.” Is still stupid in that context.
There are a number of sources calling this variant a recombination, but I haven’t really seen anything backing it up. Another more highly transmissible variant certainly wouldn’t be a surprise at this point, obviously.
Yeah, never say anything doesn’t happen in biology. There is an immense amount of strange shit that happens. Recombination is pretty ordinary, but it’d be difficult to distinguish between a recombination event and one variant adding the mutation(s) of another spontaneously.
For you. It’s a nonsense thing to throw in as some sort of important quote. It says nothing other than what we already know about covid since day 1. It wasn’t nonsense to say it, especially in what I’m sure is a far more detailed statement, it was nonsense to frame it as some sort of scary statement.
Recombination is rarely going to be a collection of a couple of point mutations. It requires the the infection of the same cell by two different versions and then with both reproducing and crossover homology, there is a recombination event in which part of genome 1 and genome 2 come together to form genome 1-2.
Mutations happen all the time. Those that confer advantage are then are selected by better reproduction rate (infectivity, etc). Not uncommon where favorable mutation 2 occurs in a strain already with favorable mutation 1. Frequency is likely much more likely than recombination.
So assuming it’s a hybrid is just lay press or non virologist non biochemist doctor/health officials speaking beyond their specific technical knowledge.