“New Zealand is back to normal”
gee, I wonder why…
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I still don’t understand why the new variant is finally getting people’s attention. The plain old version was bad enough. But whatever it takes to get people on the stay home train.
If folks do go out the biggest factor after wearing a good mask and minimizing how much you go is the community prevalence. People seem to ignore that part.
As Incidence in our area went up we’ve gotten more selective.
Teachers should basically refuse to go back until they are vaccinated.
https://twitter.com/cleavon_md/status/1345028589234753536?s=21
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Man, do you ever make posts that aren’t an attack on someone, extremely bitter, or otherwise negative? It’s not normal to behave like that. Do you get some kind of benefit from it? Your posts used to annoy me or make me angry, but now I’m starting feel bad for you. It seems like there’s something really wrong in your life. I hope it gets better for yo.
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Grim reading from Zeynep on superCOVID:
I did some very rudimentary modelling based on the Helix paper. Basically took their percentage of S-negative tests, tried to extrapolate that to all cases, then backed out a monthly growth factor and played it forward. It turns out to be very important what week you pick as your base number and whether you assume that there is a background level of non-superCOVID S-negative tests.
The top panel shows projections for each choice of base week, and the bottom panel shows the same with an assumed background S-negative rate of 0.05%:
All of this is on top of the 1-2 million regular COVID cases we already have.
I think they just want to be afforded the same privilege that you did when you traveled during peak pandemic, without a vaccination or a test. Fair is fair after all
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I have had a 33% success rate with curbside pickups being complete and accurate. Definitely not a fan.
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Doing your risky things when there’s low prevalence is individually optimal, but actually socially undesirable. More precisely, if you have a fixed budget of lockdown days where Rt is low and OFB days where Rt is high, it’s better overall to lockdown when cases are low and OFB when cases are high. You end up with the same number of cases at the end of it all (commutativity of multiplication), but you have fewer infections along the way because you stayed lower on the curve for longer.
Obviously that’s not a realistic model, but one implication is that if there’s new information that makes you think you’re going to have to be stricter in the future, you should put that extra strictness in as soon as possible, especially if you’re young and healthy and not at great risk of dying yourself if you get sick.
Neither are democracies…important for more than one reason. Vietnam is probably a decent example though and I know you know a lot about it. But, like China is too? No way in hell I trust their numbers. They could have half the Uighers dying of covid and it would not get counted.
Thailand was doing well. Now locking down after 2,000 new cases just outside Bangkok.
Got mild cheddar cheese block instead of mozzarella
Guess I better fade dying next time
:)
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2k cases? You don’t say
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I would be okay in learning that we’re all being lied to about the new virus variant if it results in people taking things more seriously and staying home.
Narrator: People are taking it less seriously and not staying home.
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It’s not expecting nurses to be scientists, it’s more about them being more knowledgeable about the practice of medicine and not being massive hypocrites.
Texas#1
Finally.
People do seem to spend a lot of time looking for loopholes to Gleam the Covid Cube.
I don’t get it. I don’t get it at all.
It’s not that my risk profile is very high to begin with. But the point that we should collectively tighten up in advance of rises (to prevent the rises ideally) is spot on.
The question is for those that are already in the top few percent of limiting exposure, does tightening further impact society or is society spread itself more driven by superspreaders and YOLOers.
I sense that “90% safe” moving to “95” helps decrease my personal risk. But since my opportunities to spread are so small probably mathematically not much impact on society.
^percent safe is just a concept, not some calculable number.
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Well the grocery store was my only human contact most weeks. But I guess I have to give that up for good now.
In LA grocery stores are a disaster. One report on a store had every manger out with COVID plus 15 plus other employees.
A 60 year old cashier was working massive overtime to help fill in, risking her life for $20 an hour.