Prof Jim Naismith, of Oxford University, said: "The data from Imperial represent the best analysis to date and imply that the measures we have employed to date, would - with the new virus - fail to reduce the R number to below 1.
“In simpler terms, unless we do something different the new virus strain is going to continue to spread - more infections, more hospitalisations and more deaths.”
The R number is the average number of people an infected person passes the virus onto. If it is above 1 the epidemic is growing.
Early data suggested that the virus was spreading more quickly among the under-20s, particularly among secondary school age children, but the latest results indicate that it is more infectious in all age groups.
Prof Axel Gandy, part of the research team, suggested that it may have appeared to spread more easily among school children simply because the early data was collected during the November lockdown, when adults’ movements were restricted but schools remained open.
Yeah grocery shopping was my biggest leak during this whole thing (aside from directly working with covid patients I guess). I started out changing my grocery shopping habits from going a couple times a week to once every couple weeks. Over the summer I drifted back to my pre-covid shopping habit. I finally started doing curbside pickup in October and haven’t been in a store in months. It is so much easier that I don’t think I’ll ever go back to shopping in store if curbside remains an option after this mess.
Sure and I’m not trying to justify recreational trips in general, but I’m not afraid to talk about one aspect fearing that it’s an endorsement of everything involved.
But, still, I will justify some recreational trips. I will go camping. Yes, it will cause a couple extra visits to gas stations and public restroom. I get that it’s optional and I could do better, but I think it’s less dangerous than my regular life at home the way I’m doing it.
Public policy is not the same as personal decisions. It can be safer to travel than to stay home. That depends on what the travel is like and what home is like. That doesn’t work at a policy level, but it’s true, and fuck not saying true things just because…they are, what, blasphemy?
This is the thing that really frustrates me here. We’ve had various tiers of lockdown but the idiots are always looking for the latest “loophole” - you could drink in a pub if you had a “substantial” meal so we get
… we still have the right to protest so any large moron gathering is billed as a protest etc.(Trump did the same with his rallies).
As far as “crushed it” goes, the only countries I see that crushed it that I really think we can trust data from are Australia and New Zealand. Certainly the only developed democracies that did. And they do have something in common.
I’m willing to give people a lot of latitude when it comes to what they should do to take care of essential needs such as food and shelter and what they need to do to make money so that they can afford those essential needs without ending up crushed by debt at the end of this.
What we really needed was for people to recognize that social and leisure activities are not essential and that they shouldn’t be doing all that shit. I’m disappointed in the people who think it’s too great of a sacrifice to not get laid for a year or two if it saves a ton of lives. Not surprised, just disappointed.
And, @JohnnyTruant, all this talk about where the lines are can be literally saving lives! If I weren’t here talking about these lines right now, I wouldn’t have read this post and be thinking, ‘woah, I really should do curbside pickup. And then when I shop for my mom, she could order all her own stuff’.
Anyone else have a pretty decent NYE even with staying home? I am realizing this morning I didn’t miss the usual that much. We stayed home, played some rounds of What Do You Meme via zoom with some people, drank our faces off, ate some good food and hit the hot tub at midnight in the middle of a snowstorm.
Maybe Covid is changing me or maybe it is just making me realize I didn’t like the usual NYE bs as much as I thought. I wouldn’t have changed last night even if I could.
Idiot expats and long-term travelers whining about covid vaccination requirements will be the next phase. I’m on a lot of ex-pat forums for mexico and central america. There seems to be a very vocal minority of conspiracy nut expats.