https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1344607063658405888
https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1344607093148549121
First tweet begins the thread. Second tweet was the most interesting finding.
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If the US/Europe(Europe did better than the US but not by a ton) had actually worked to eradicate Covid like most of Asia and Australia/NZ this new strain wouldnāt have occurred because of literally hundreds of millions of less chances to mutate right?
If this strain takes hold in the US, and there is no reason to think it wont, we are fucked and all this vaccine talk doesnāt matter much. We will hit natural immunity levels that are close to sufficient long before enough people get vaccinated.
All confirmed ITT at least 10 days ago
It seems like you are on about a 1 game winning streak. Letās not get cocky lol.
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At least 2 if youāre counting.
And Iāve got a bad rep to try and set straight - didnāt use to point them out before ;)
It was reassuring (noted) to see you shared concern at the new variant, long before it became ārealā your side of the pond
Maybe so I was trying to give you credit. Iāve been saying for a few days at least it seems like the US is ignoring it for now which is eerily familiar to what we did last year at this time. Not that it would matter. We arenāt ever taking this seriously here until people start dropping dead at bars.
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Faster service times
Looks like one of the papers is from at least some of the authors cited in the minutes, and the other is from an independent group. The publication of the figures and data that back up the earlier statements is certainly newsworthy.
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Okay now that is hashed, everyone west marks, socially distance and stop effing going to restaurants, gyms, house parties and what ever other dumb stuff people insist on doing which are obviously stupid to be doing.
I think bobmanās superCOVID is a good term - maybe the superexpotential nature and rapido death climb will bring them to their senses (yeah, probably not)
SuperCOVID is only the prevalent strain in like 1/4 of the country - imagine if you multiplied these stats to the US (x6?, England only, not UK) and this was / is during lockdown
7 days deaths adding say another 50% in a week should make the news
Yes. But perhaps Churchill can comment on the tightness of a typical English lockdown. It is interesting that the B.1.1.7 variant has some quality that allows it to escape lockdowns that knock down the spread of standard strains. There may be something else to add to your list of things not to do.
I explained what I was talking about. A lot of people who donāt 100% trust the US govt would rather just not get covid or the vaccination. They wrongly see both as having similar risks. Their plan A is to get neither. But if they do get covid they think theyāre probably going to be ok. So for them itās selfish. They donāt care if they risk giving it to someone else or that they really should get vaccinated for societyās sake.
That was my first question when they cited it spreading during a lockdown.
My definition of what an actual lockdown would be is a pretty far cry from what most countries and governments think is a lockdown.
Call me skeptical that they have implemented a real lockdown.
Fyp
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During the ālastā England lockdown (Nov 3 or 4Dec ish), link below in blue, is when new variant was still going exponential even whilst lockdown lite. Over half the current population of England are now in a new Tier 4 lockdown with 99% of the remaining population in Tier 3.
What are the restrictions in tier four?
The restrictions are similar to the last national lockdown and include:
- Residents should stay at home, unless they have a āreasonable excuseā such as work or education
- All non-essential shops must close
- Hairdressers and nail bars must close
- Indoor entertainment venues must close
- Gyms and indoor swimming pools, indoor sports courts and dance studios must close
- You cannot meet other people indoors, unless you live with them or they are part of your support bubble
- People should not leave tier four areas or travel abroad, except for limited reasons (including work and education)
- Weddings and civil partnership ceremonies are only allowed in exceptional circumstances
āClinically extremely vulnerableā people in tier four areas are advised to stay at home āas much as possibleā. The government says if they canāt work from home, they shouldnāt go to work.
Almost defintately stricter than the US has seenā¦ can meet one other person outdoors, no others indoors and it still goes up from those that canāt WFH, essential businesses, etc.
The UK lockdown has been very varied across the country for a long time now, whether itās āproperā by your standard is obviously close to impossible for me to judge, but the worrying thing to me is simply that they were measures that did slow the spread of other variants but not this one. What has worked now does not.
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Itās not just a selfish POV, though. Itās a seflish POV where they have miscalculated.
Even for youngs, chance of death or bad outcomes from COVID is higher than chance of death or bad outcomes from the vaccine.
Pure selfishness would lead one to get the jab (shit, now Iām saying it too).
Now you may argue that they are assessing ābad outcomes from vaccineā differently. And they are. But their assessment has no basis in fact. Itās largely based on feels.
So, this subset of anti-vaxxers is not just being selfish, they are also doing the EV calc wrong.
Nature is calling it a jab too, the terminology is taking root.
Iām not saying theyāre right. Iām saying theyāre being selfish based on what they believe. They know thereās a benefit to society in them taking the vaccine. But they donāt want to take on what they see as personal risk to benefit society. It really is that simple. Itās like these yoga moms who count on everyone else to vaccine their kids.
But letās do the math anyway. Letās say you believe thereās a 1% chance it turns out everyone who gets the vaccine has some serious long term health problem after 3 years or something. You havenāt gotten covid yet and feel pretty confident you can wait this thing out. So letās say you believe thereās a 10% chance you catch covid if you donāt get vaccinated before it dies out. Also as a young healthy person, you know thereās about a .01% chance of dying (might be lower) and letās say you think thereās a 5% chance of long term health problems if you do get covid (might be higher).
So the vaccinated plan is simple: 1% chance you have some weird long term health impact (according to what you believe).
Non vaccinated = .5% long term health impact (10% chance of catching x 5%) and .001% chance of dying.
Of course the numbers are wrong. Iām just saying this is their mental calculation.
Thatās what Iām saying. The point is that itās not enough that they are selfish, they have to be selfish and misinformed and/or bad at math.
But once you add that second part in there you are not just describing the young anti-vaxxers, you are describing all of them. Or nearly all of them. Their universal problem is that they have incorrectly assessed the risk and magnitude of potential harm from the vaccine.