Fauci guesses indoor gatherings possible safely in Q4 ‘21 if we get high vaccine uptake. Given the large non vax movement in USA that you are talking about, a return to our normal lives this year may be too aggressive of a target.
We probably don’t get the uptake we need to get to herd immunity if it is 80 percent needed. We are still learning on the fly how long vaccination protection lasts, that complicates a full reopening, especially if uptake hovers at 50 percent. There are people who legitimately can’t get a vaccine, so reopening while they are at risk is a dicey moral and political question. Possibly a legal one when vaccine passports become involved (not sure this Supreme Court ends up going for vax requirements for domestic events, which will hinder return to normal for the vaccinated)
It would be easier if everyone was just confident in vaccines and this rollout went smoothly, but doesn’t seem like a likely path. I feel somewhat confident I will be able to see my non immune compromised family in person at some point in 2021 as most will get vaccinated. Feels better than it did six months ago that there is an other side, but societal luxuries like travelling freely/responsibly, full crowds at sporting events and restaurants, unrestricted in person school, and de masking seem more like 2022 or 2023 events to me.
Also share your worry that the new normal is going to mean like 30,000 domestic COVID deaths a year/six figures worldwide in the background. Wont shut down modern society, but depressing to think about and will continue to add stress to the healthcare system during the winter season
