COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

? Isn’t this what the CDC has been saying since the start? Feel like I’m taking crazy pills or something, but I don’t recall them ever saying that this respiratory virus isn’t mainly spread via the air.

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This J&J pause is terrible news and terrible timing. And it creates the absolutely perfect “I told you so” moment for the morons who weren’t ever getting vaccinated but were saying “it’s just too early, theres not enough data on these vaccines. They were rushed.”

As always, the inability for the vast majority of the population to understand very basic math is infuriating.

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The whole droplet vs aerosol debate they were behind the curve.

Wash your hands and hygiene theater.

The first was deadly.

The second is good policy regardless. Certainly taken to an extreme but a reasonable precaution considering the unknowns.

It seems pretty easy. Make the conservative assumption until there is clear and convincing evidence. Weigh the greater harm.

This J&J thing seems like a misstep. Disease/lives saved from the vaccine is probably orders of magnitude more than any clotting risk. And that is just not getting shots into willing arms- not factoring increased hesitancy.

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Because every news story doesn’t start with the real numbers.

1:1000 of getting blood clots under normal conditions and 1:3 with covid.

I’ll revise, any story that doesn’t start with those numbers is malpractice.

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Agree, but when tf did they ever say it wasn’t overwhelmingly spread through the air vs via surfaces?

It’s dumb, loaded language. Washing your hands is still a good idea. Obviously people can go overboard, but invoking “hygiene theater” sure seems like a dubious message.

People aren’t going to get vaccinated if they think there’s a 1 in a million chance that it will kill them. That’s just no how people work. Think the best way to handle this is make the J&J available to people who want it but keep it out of the main supply. idk, this news is going to be disastrous no matter what they do.

sounds like the J&J vax actually prevents blood clots

in lieu of nobel prizes, please send NFTs to the following account…

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If this J&J pause interrupts production of the vaccine for 5 minutes people should be put in the guillotine. Not figuratively. Literally.

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You joke but it’s hard to see how that claim is any less scientifically valid as the one that the vaccine causes blood clots. What is the evidence of causation here at all? This seems like a level one correlation equals causation error.

The aerosol piece was actively denied by both CDC and WHO. I’m not sure WHO has ever gotten on board. It’s lol 3 vs 6 feet for aerosols. That has much more to do with ventilation vs distance. While the difference may seem esoteric, in practice the messaging and mitigation are different.

Yes, I agree, they fucked up there. WTF does that have to do with what the article is saying? Either way, there’s never been any dispute that it’s transmitted through the air primarily and surface transmission is far less likely.

I don’t think they are pausing production, just use. It sounds like there is a rare side effect that is potentially fatal if treated incorrectly and they are just doing their due diligence since blood clots were not listed as a possible side effect, so it hasn’t been studied. Especially since the vaccine has only been approved under emergency use authorization, I think it is reasonable to take some time on this and not cut corners.

Nah, that wasn’t what the CDC was saying back circa like march and maybe early April of 20 I think. They did update the guidance pretty quickly though.

I can guarantee all progress I made with getting my parents vaccinated has been lost. Terrible news.

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Leaked question from the CDC’s aptitude test for new hires:

  1. A trolley is barrelling out of control down a track. Many thousands of people are tied to the track, and the trolley will surely kill all of them if it isn’t stopped. You can flip a switch that will divert the trolley to an unused siding, where it will safely roll to a stop. However, if you do, 6 people will get a weird rash. What action do you take?

A. Throw the switch. Protecting human life is the highest value.
B. Don’t throw the switch. Inflicting weird rashes on people is an unacceptable cost.
C. “Pause” on your decision whether or not to throw the switch out of an “abundance of caution” while you gather more information on weird rashes. Convene many meetings to disperse accountability through the bureaucracy. When the trolley kills the people, complain about inadequate funding.

Answer Key: (C)

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You are wrong. Period.

Sure we’ve got plenty of time. It’s not like there’s not a massive pandemic creating variants out there and we don’t have to very quickly fight a demand for supply in many parts of the country and vaccine hesitancy in others.

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Are you sure? They thought a respiratory disease was primarily spread by surfaces?

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They probably paused in part to make sure it really is one in a million, if it is they will probably restart. I don’t think this is a hang the FDA thing, just a shitty thing that happened that will exacerbated by a hyper divided/hyper politicized populace and the US’s all-in in vaccine strategy. I do agree the net outcome of the pause is likely negative.

A two-paragraph quote that perfectly encapsulates how far up its ass the public health establishment has its head about COVID doesn’t exis–

“It’s a very rare event. You’re talking about 1 per million, and when you give millions of doses of vaccines, you will see events like this that you couldn’t see in the clinical trial just because you didn’t have millions of people enrolled,” Dr. Carlos del Rio, executive associate dean of the Emory University School of Medicine at Grady Health System, told CNN’s John Berman and Poppy Harlow on Tuesday morning.

“But I want to congratulate the CDC and the FDA for very quickly jumping on it, halting the vaccinations until we know more, and really trying to understand what’s going on,” del Rio said. “I think vaccine safety has always been a priority – and I think this is exactly the right move until we understand what’s going on and what’s the way forward.”