COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

US recommending a pause in J&J vaccine usage due to clotting issues.

Seems like problem. At best don’t see how this doesn’t create more vaccine hesitancy. At worst we just lost a big portion of anticipated supply

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Shouldn’t we just shift everyone to Pfizer and Moderna? Pay the other companies however much they would have made on their inferior vaccines and have them produce the good ones. I’m sure this is impractical.

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I’m curious. Excluding the potential impact of the new variants, what is your opinion about the evidence that young children are weaker transmitters of SARS-CoV-2, and that daycare and elementary schools are therefore unlikely to drive transmission?

The evidence is…
  • Strong
  • Strong for reduced transmission but substantially weaker for reduced school/daycare outbreaks
  • Moderate
  • Weak
  • Equivocal
  • Nonexistent

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It’s really too bad the govt can’t just seize their means of production or whatever and make sure we have enough of the good stuff.

I don’t really know how to vote. I think the evidence was pretty good pre variants that opening safely was possible, not as strong thet opening safely was what was going to happen in practice in the US

One of the things of this era (Trumpism + Covid) that drives me nuts is this idea that people like Trump supporters or anti vaxxers are stupid because they claim to have self-contradictory views, as though they read numerous books and conduct carefully research and examine the facts from all angles and then arrive at contradictory conclusions because they’re stupid.

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What a bunch of fucking clowns.

Really not good.

I mean the fatality rate is literally one in a million

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This is the death blow to any hope of herd immunity right? We are now guaranteed to be killing off a hundred thousand Americans a year from this for the rest of my life right? Happy Tuesday.

Seems near certain that more people will die due to people not getting the vaccine after being spooked by this news than would have died or suffered serious consequences as a result of the vaccine. This seems bad.

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By not good , I hope you mean criminal.

It’s 0.00000857% of cases.

33% of people who are hospitalized with covid have blood clot issues according to one study.

This is journalistic malpractice. Every media source reporting this should be in jail.

Everyone involved with the pause should be fired immediately for gross incompetence on the job. If you can’t understand basic risk how are you in charge of medical approvals.

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We weren’t likely getting to true herd, but I don’t think it is that grim. This likely burns itself out somewhat over time and the vaccines are effective so 100k a year is hopefully high. Probably the death knell for 2022 being normal though and in a sane world we’d get announcements this week about lockdowns and restricted travel (I know lol).

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We could do this but I think it would take something like 6-12 months to really ramp. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do it.

Edit: maybe I’m being too optimistic there based on dans post, maybe a longer runway

Sadly the production methods are quite different for the mRNA vs traditional vaccines. Easy to get others to make J&J vs getting J&J to make mRNA.

This pause is going to increase vaccine refusal by a few percent which is going to make any hope of herd almost impossible. This thing is going to circulate at 20-30,000 cases per day for about… forever. We will be getting annual or maybe even semi-annual boosters for a few years to stay ahead of the variants.

Thankfully pretty much all the olds and vulnerables got high rates of vaccine compliance.

No one should be surprised when some variant arises that has a 0.5% ifr amongst the 13-40 year old set.

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A pause might increase vaccine hesitancy, but surely keeping the J&J vaccine in stock is going to increase it even more? GL explaining to people that it’s statistically safer than not getting the vaccine.

This illusory “freedom” nonsense in this country is so enraging. We consistently let idiots’ freedom to be idiots outweigh basic, widespread societal benefits. Vax denying morons kill people, full stop.

How so? This is a CDC and FDA decision.

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That said, this sounds like a horrible decision.

Less than 1 in 1 million? Even if you reduce the denominator by limiting it to women under 50, isn’t the risk of oral contraceptives (which we freely give to that population) considerably higher than that?

I’m willing to hear from those more informed than I, but this sounds extremely bad.

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