That’s how you are reading it - it not how I read it.
Is this how this silly arguments on here begin? At the first opportunity WichitaDM clarified what he meant but you insist that’s not what he said - jeez.
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I mean I am skeptical how we could know these vaccines are 100% at stopping severe Covid as Moderna has claimed and has been repeated here. The last trial data I saw had 12 people vaccinated pozzed (which is a good thing). The release is here:
If you took a random sample of 12 covid positive people the odds of someone having a severe case is not that high. That’s my point of contention.
Yeah my tone was too combative
I’m on edge about terms like it’s possible right now after having to talk to bro in law about videos he watched on wayfair child cabinets, so probably too sensitive to certain phrasings right now.
And just the general push back I’m seeing all over the place about the vaccine that we all need in order to get past this.
Sorry about the overreaction.
I think the line we should be taking and espousing in this informative thread is that anybody getting the vaccine should consider themselves just as likely to get covid or severe covid for the first 5 weeks as they were before the vaccine. Playing it safe is the smart play and what we need society to be doing. We don’t need millions of people yoloing it up during their vaccination process, which we all know is going to happen.
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I agree with everything you are saying I think you just misunderstand me. I also think I combined two points in one post which made it confusing. I am saying:
-My friend’s story as I think some would find it interesting. It is really more of a cautionary tale that we need to remain diligent after getting vaccinated than any negative point about the vaccine, and
-I don’t think based on the data we have we really know if these vaccines will prevent all cases of severe Covid. We have good data on short term efficacy. Really good data. But I think people are reading 0% of people on the Moderna vaccine have had severe Covid yet as there is a 0% chance I can get severe Covid if i get the Moderna vaccine which is not the same thing.
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Based on that, 15% were severe so you have 85% chance of not being severe
.85^12 = .14 so yeah, 14% chance that those 12 weren’t severe even if the vaccine does nothing to reduce severity for the 5%
So yeah, I don’t think we can say it eliminates severe covid for the 5% yet based on a sample size of 12.
That’s my only point of skepticism. We probably will have better data as we go along.
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This isn’t right. No one thinks the vaccine is effective that quickly.
I think you were the one who posted about Moderna being 100% effective against severe Covid. Can you address my point a few posts later where I clarify? I understand the vaccine isn’t fully effective at the point my friend is at.
To be clear I am not trying to be combative I think your Covid posting is A+ so I am trying to understand how we could possibly know Moderna was 100% effective vs. severe Covid with the tiny sample size of pozzed people post-vaccine (which again the fact so few have been pozzed is actually a good thing).
I don’t think it was me, but if it was it was the vaccine would not have been effective yet. The talk about severity isn’t relevant here as this person didn’t have time yet for the vaccine to be anywhere close to effective.
I’m not sure about the severe covid stuff. It makes absolute sense from a theoretical standpoint though.
That’s a fair point and I did a poor job frankensteining two thoughts together early in the morning.
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No prob I edited my post about your other point. Apologies. I’m not as familiar with the other stuff about severity but it makes sense
My friend’s fb post this morning got me thinking about the 100% efficacy claim vs. severe Covid from Moderna and then suddenly a bad post is born!
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And nominated. Committee waiting on the Bear.
Shit fucking luck catching a hard case of the virus 3 weeks out from 95% effectiveness 
Hope your friend ends up ok.
Also since Moderna and Pfizer are so similar couldn’t we kinda combine their positives and their lack of severe infections for a larger sample size?
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Let’s see what happens end of January.
Fwiw I read your original post as suggesting it’s possible the vaccine gave her covid, but I gave you the benefit of the doubt that you wouldnt make such a claim. Glad that’s not what you were getting at.
100% effective at preventing severe covid wouldn’t come in to play until a week after the second shot, or roughly a month after the first. It would be like somebody eating a weed brownie and after 10 seconds saying “it’s not working”. It takes time to do it’s thing in your body.
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Does anyone know what the fuck is happening in LA? I don’t have any connections there but things seem like they’re both nightmare level and hospitals aren’t drastically changing their procedures reading between the lines of media coverage.
Yah this seems crazy. Esp. since LA isn’t Missouri vis a vis how seriously the population is taking precautions/public health mandates.
Lots to go at for capitalism wrt covid, but vaccine creation and distribution has been anything but capitalism from basically start to finish.