COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

We show that, surprisingly, P.1 is significantly less resistant to naturally acquired or vaccine induced antibody responses than B.1.351 suggesting that changes outside the RBD impact neutralisation.

Cliffs: South African variant (not P.1 Brazillian) is why the vaccinated shouldn’t be travelling and should still be masking up

Covid vaccines ‘may protect against Brazil variant’

The P1 or Brazil variant of coronavirus that has also now been seen in the UK may be less resistant to current vaccines than experts originally feared, say scientists.

A team at Oxford University has measured the protection generated by the Oxford-AstraZeneca and Pfizer-BioNTech shots the UK is using in its mass rollout.

Blood tests show people who have been vaccinated develop antibodies that can fight coronavirus. While these are best matched to attack the original version of the Covid-19 virus, they still appear to work well against some of the new variants that have been emerging - including the Brazil variant of concern and the Kent variant that is now dominant in the UK.

But tests against the South Africa variant were less encouraging.

This version of coronavirus has some additional changes to its genetic makeup that may help it dodge some learned immunity from vaccines or past Covid infection, they say in a pre-print of their work.

That doesn’t mean the vaccines won’t work at all, but it is worth continuing to develop new, updated coronavirus vaccines to keep pace.

https://twitter.com/mmpadellan/status/1372593147751055366?s=21

Since I got the jab today I’m self proclaiming I got #100,000,000 in USA#1.

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Massachusetts ending its penalties for travelling out of state and not quarantining, removing quarantining requirements for the vaccinated. Excited to book some day trips to NH outdoor activities as the Spring and Summer progresses

Glad to see these studies being done. We have millions vaccinated at this point, do we have many known instances of vaccinated people having severe COVID outcomes? Seems like they are exceedingly rare if they are happening. Still all for caution and masking, but really dont see a lot of reason for pessimism about the variants once vaccination is widespread.

When is that going to be?

We have like a fourth of the country that says they won’t get the vaccine, not to mention all of the under 16s that this isn’t approved for yet.

We’re still a long way from beating this thing.

Are these rural locations letting people not qualified get jabbed?

Vaccination being widespread throughout the herd i.e. humans i.e. the world (say 2023?) or within the US when vaccination prgramme runs out of takers at 50% or assuming a bar on international travel? Virus only needs some humans worldwide, unvaccinated, to mutate past vaccines even if your own state hits ‘partial (world) herd’

Everything I’ve read is they just verify you are who you say you are. I have not seen a single person anywhere on the internet say they had to verify an underlying health condition.

Because I might type in rhymes…

Vaccination rate good, no. of postives as a % of tests skyrocketing. Explain?

Id hope for when kids are vaccinated in 2022, but reality is will likely be earlier. Its just going to be an endemic virus with the unvaccinated fending for themselves and we will try and use boosters to stay ahead of mutations. Herd immunity isnt really in the cards IMO, and the population isnt going to accept NPI for the vaccinated to protect those choosing not to vaccinate for much longer after vaccines are widely available. Vaccines are really good so hopefully death and severe outcomes almost all limited to the unvaccinated and we can hopefully improve therapeutics to help outcomes there.

Feel really bad for those who cant get vaccinated, they are gonna get a really raw deal and just have added risk in life now.

Its going to be cat and mouse with boosters maybe, but I dont see a lot of reason to think we wont be able to contain the virus with vaccines. In the interim we will likely move to a world where people from countries without vaccine assets are more or less banned from countries with vaccine access.

EDIT: Here’s the article I havent seen, and if it is out there please pass it along. Fully vaccinated people are dying of COVID variants. Also, just to be clear, this isnt exactly the approach Im advocating. Just where it seems like we are going.

Variant/behavior driven surge among a population that’s still 90%+ not vaccinated. I dont think it is that big of a mystery.

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and we’ll also see…

a world where people from countries with vaccine assets are more or less banned from countries without vaccine access beacuse we wouldn’t want to bring back a mutated virus which is almost a dead cert where access to vaccines isn’t avaiable

I’m not anti-vax. The paper above shows you vaccines will be less effective with some mutations. There’s a reason the world ain’t OFB 4 months after the first vaccine and that isn’t because no-ones died yet.

We’re still awaiting the article claiming vaccinated don’t transmit - best we’ve got so far shows a cut in transmission by (up to) 75%

I know you arent anti-vax. Im just saying we have vaccinated millions. If vaccinated people are going to die of COVID variants more than rarely then Id expect to start hearing about it happening in the wild. Im not advocating opening up travel until we learn/vaccinate more. I just dont really see a lot of reason for concern that vaccinated people are going to have severe outcomes from COVID variants. Not saying it cant happen, just saying so far a lot of reasons for optimism.

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Everyone is letting their guard down and going back to normal.

Might actually have a point there, tbh.

Someone already posted a paper on this a few weeks ago, IIRC.

Could be due to vaccinated people not getting tested when a contact tests positive?

I was reading about Pfizer immunity and when it starts to kick in (14 days after first shot) and saw that in the first week after the first shot infection rates actually went way UP. The likely explanation is that in defiance of common sense and science, many people YOLO it up immediately after their first shot. That factors in here somewhere.

I only had to write down what my health condition was. I didn’t have to show proof.

I would plan on going back for the second shot. I got my first in Loudoun County and my 2nd appointment was canceled due to that snowstorm last month. The system never opened back up for me to reschedule, so I started looking for other places but all of the 2nd shot clinics were limited to people who got their first shots there (eventually found an email that led to someone at LCHD manually rescheduling me). Might be different if availability is better in a few weeks, also you might have better luck with chain pharmacies or something like that. Obviously make sure you have a record of your first shot in case you need to go to a different provider for the second.

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You mean 12 hours was too soon to go hang out at the saloon? Damn.