COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

You could run for queen fucking mum with that level of coffee makery

Iā€™m a fan of tracking the ongoing progress until it becomes self-evidently moot

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Despite Georgiaā€™s essentially open eligibility right now, there are still tons of places with same-day vaccine appointments available in South Georgia. But things have tightened up a lot, to where anything within about 150 miles of Atlanta is booked out at least 5 days. I see that as progress.

And hopefully now that the state has acknowledged the Atlanta/not-Atlanta disparity, theyā€™ll do something about it. (Sweet summer child, I know.)

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20% but that is probably below the average since we can assume those who had Covid symptoms are probably less likely to donate soon after???

So maybe 30% is the real number? Only 40-50% more by vax to reach herd.

But Highly unlikely the 40-45% value the guy in the WSJ claimed last month. Also some fraction of those vetted vaxxed are overlaps with infection derived antibodies.

Say 150,000,000 fully vaxxed to account for the double counts to get above 230,000,000.

At 75M kids that means adults would be pushing 85% in rough numbers.

True herd is going to be tough. Endemic disease here we come while a pandemic continues to rage outside of the 1st world countries.

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The localized nature of antibodies and vaccines and willingness to mitigate is also going to make this always a thing. Iā€™m hopeful that by, say, mid 2022, we are down under 1,000 cases/day and 20 deaths/day. But boosters will always be necessary, and I somehow donā€™t think weā€™ll ever fully climb out from under the need for some degree of mitigation. Hope to be proven wrong though.

Iā€™m much more optimistic than that. I think that once vaccines get approved for children (hopefully down to at least 2 if not younger), then this is going to be less of a thing than the flu going forward, which means, yeah, probably annualish boosters, but probably far fewer annual cases, deaths, and I might even be so bold and to predict fewer deaths per case than the flu, but that would require equal or greater vaccine penetration compared to the flu vaccine. These vaccines are better than just about any flu vaccine ever has been, and the nature of the virus is to be much more susceptible to vaccines than the flu.

I wouldnā€™t be surprised if we see greater mask wearing during flu season and a greater willingness to WFH when sick in the wake of this, at least in bluer areas. People are much more keen on how a cough for you could be lethal to someone youā€™re only 2 or 3 degrees of Kevin Bacon away from.

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I donā€™t disagree with any of that. 1,000 cases/day and 20 deaths/day is a much smaller thing than the flu. And thatā€™s what I mean by us always needing some degree of mitigationā€“mask wearing in high-risk months/places might become the norm going forward.

1000/20 a day nationwide will be basically zero mitigation even in the bluest of states. Hopefully some better norms in terms of staying home when sick and being cognizant of spreading and picking up germs though as you suggest.

Iā€™m back to normal after my 1st shot on Monday. That little sucker packs a punch. Had a sore arm and chills Monday night. Slept a lot past 2 days. Probably 30 hrs of sleep. 2nd shot will be hell I think.

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Got my second of pfizer jab yesterday morning. No side effects other than a sore arm.

Folks on the Facebook side effect group seem to think I have between 4 and 14 months left on earth.

Iā€™ll report back in 15 months.

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How soon are you vaccinated after the 2nd shot? Immediately, or do you have to wait a few weeks like with a flu shot?

Gotta wait 2 weeks IIRC.

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2 weeks for Moderna. Pfizer is allegedly 1 weekā€¦ but i would wait 2 before licking doorknobs.

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Ohio just made 40+ eligible as of Friday 3/19. Wife and I are currently booked via Kroger for a Friday evening Pfizer jab in Columbus. Absolutely cannot wait to get a real haircut. Wife has put in great duty cutting my hair with clippers over the last 13 months, but Iā€™m not exactly getting stopped on the streets with compliments.

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Yea getting a haircut is definitely the first thing Iā€™m going to do once vaccinated.

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an aeropress costs like $20, you can get pour-over drippers for like $6

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Fuck me I think I paid like $20 for my pour over thingy.

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Iā€™m not talking price, Iā€™m talking quantity. Who needs 3 coffee making thingies?

Ok thanks

Got what figures to be my last pandemic haircut immortalized on my new driverā€™s license, lol.

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