Under a specific set of conditions not seen in the vast majority of the country.
When community spread is low (which it isnāt) and schools socially distance students (not enough physical space) and improve ventilation (which they canāt).
Which, amusingly, is what pretty much everyone ITT has said since almost day one. Of course open schools as a priority when people in the community arenāt dropping like flies, and certainly open them before the Sizzler, once the bodies stop piling up. Almost qualifies as ācommon senseā, which is why it is absolutely not happening.
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people reported major fever reactions, which we now know what is supposed to happen. at first, russians were afraid of doing getting it, because they thought it would not be effective. there were relatively few confirmed cases after vaccination, although 90% efficiency was a totally made up number. lancet study said noone developed a serious covid case after vaccination, similar to other vaccines. if there was nothing else available in your country, iād probably take it now.
Thereās a peer-reviewed study indicating that itās effective. Seems fairly legit.
I would take the Russian or Chinese vaccines when offered. They have been used for quite some time now without reports of people dying of Covid after being vaccinated which is all that matters to me at this point. You can always get Moderna or Pfizer as a booster later if you want to make sure not to catch and spread the disease.
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Iām 16 hrs past my 2nd pfizer dose and just starting to get chills. Not necessarily unpleasant at this point but I figured I should wake up and walk my dog before it gets any worse.
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Dog: āI was sleeping, Bro. Da fug?ā
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Anyone else surprised that new cases are still this high in consideration all the people who have already had it now + have been vaccinated?
CNN posted a great article that describes how the Czech Republic fucked up so badly over the last 6+ months
Itās all dead on right.
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Itās really not surprising. Group immunity levels below herd immunity doesnāt have much of an impact on transmission rate.
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I am not an expert but this seems intuitively wrong to me. The more people who are immune the lower transmission rates should go right?
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The 10 or so posts above this one if you missed them
15% vaccinated (I guess some might have already tested positive, but I would imagine most in that group would choose not to get the vaccine)
8% tested positive - given asymptomatic cases and lack of widespread testing and Fauci telling people not to wear masks at the beginning (random guess 4x) ?
= 47% immune
Now add ~15% of people who take precautions.
= 62%
yet, we are still seeing the same daily number of new cases as October?
That is correct from my understanding, but the observable effect is negligible until you get close to herd immunity.
I think the assumption that a quarter of the population had an undiagnosed case of COVID is probably wrong. Moreover, thereās a ton of overlap between all three of those categories (why would someone with an undetected, asymptomatic COVID case not get a vaccine or not take precautions?), so you canāt just add them up.
People having it does have an effect, but itās very small until it grows extremely fast at the very end just before herd immunity. Itās a consequence of the exponential growth disease spread follows
I think your guess about crossover between previously infected and vaccinated isnāt accurate. A large portion of people vaccinated are healthcare workers and nursing home residents. Literally everyone I know from work who got covid also got the vaccine, and I know from friends who work in nursing homes that they made every effort to vaccinate all residents regardless of previous infection. The next group is boomers who generally give zero fucks about anything but themselves. If they arenāt antivaxxers they will get the vaccine even if they had covid.
4x truly is a wild ass guess. Iāve seen everything from 1.5 to 6x. 
We arenāt exactly doing a bang up job of getting a firm number on that.
We are somewhere between 20 and 50% population immunity. People isolating are minimizing their individual risk of getting covid, but they arenāt immune and virtually no one has zero risk.
Are you sure about this? Intuitively, if you start out with N infectious people, and each of those N people exposes R0 people to a sufficient dose of the pathogen to cause an infection, then the number of new infections will be equal to N * R0 * (1 - % immune). In other words, 25% immunity buys you a 25% reduction in new infections, 50% is a 50% reduction and so on. The potential flaw in the logic is that the percent immune in the overall population might not be the same as the percent immune in the population exposed to infection. I think for natural immunity youād expect more exposed people to be immune than the general population, while vaccination might target high-risk people who are less likely to be exposed.
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Not sure at all. Iām hardly an expert in the math. An infectious disease doc explained it to me like this. Say you have a virus with an R0 of 2. Once you get to 50% of herd immunity R should be around 1.9, assuming nobody bothered to take any other action to reduce R like stay at home orders and mask mandates. @ 75% herd immunity you are down to an R of 1.7 which is still an exponential cluster fuck. @ 95% you are at 1.1 but your gonna have a huge overshoot coming as R falls off the cliff.
Edit: These numbers are just to illustrate the point. I donāt know what the precise R should be for a given % immunity.
Iām impressed that you had the gall to just completely make up equations, call it intuition, and not look up the most basic things about disease modeling.
You do not state the simple model correctly before you just kind of add on 1-%immune for whatever reason, forgetting that this is exponential growth. You need that exponent on R0 for time.
Iām not capable of deriving the equation I want mathematically. However, absolutely shit all in this situation is linear growth. Herd immunity is 1-1/R0, which means this relationship is exponential and will not have much effect on growth in the beginning, as cases will continue to grow exponentially