COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

Same, fucking joke

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Start smoking and overeating. Ldo

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Iā€™ve been on the standby list for weeks, they are definitely not using it, there was actually a small scandal where they have been throwing doses away and the county health director had to resign etc.

Damn how is Vegas crushing it so hard? I guess itā€™s the combination of sourcing it to Walmart and the population being half trumper and half conspiracy theorist

Iā€™ve talked to so many people who want to wait years for the vaccine

https://twitter.com/theresa_chapple/status/1365121563733942274?s=21

Read the whole thread.

Sounds exactly like the NFL findings, only kids and teachers.

These would seem to be more typical conditions vs some of the idealized studies out there.

3 feet of distancing. Good but not perfect masking. Class breaking into small group work. Lunch eaten in class. And this is missing some stuff because contract tracing testing was only 60%.

100% of the population is 1A.

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I have a friend who had covid a few months ago and just received his first vaccine. I think moderna.

  1. I was surprised he was getting vaccinated already. Is there vaccine guidance for people that already had covid?

  2. He has very bad side effects after the first dose. Is that to be expected because his first dose is more like anyone elseā€™s second, given that his immune system should already know to respond? Are booster shots in the future likely to have a lot of side effects?

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  1. Guidance is to get vaccinated. Thereā€™s obviously no RCT demonstrating immunity for people who had COVID.
  2. Yes, at least thatā€™s what happened to everyone Iā€™ve known who has had covid and got vaccinated
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I feel like everyone who thinks they have ā€œbad side effectsā€ needs to make this assessment about 3 days after the shot. Almost universally, by that time, everyone says ā€œWell it was kind of bad, but I got over it fast, and Iā€™d rather that than have COVIDā€. As bad as it is, almost no one wishes they didnā€™t do it.

Yea obviously itā€™s subjective and means different things to different people, and Iā€™m just going off of his wife saying he was ā€˜very sick.ā€™ I had no side effects on either shot except a sore arm. But heā€™s the first Iā€™ve heard described as very sick after the first shot. Iā€™ve heard quite a bit of that after the second shot.

Maybe itā€™s possible that for people who already had covid, the first shot is more like the second in everyone else.

lol, I was deeply shaken by this study because I thought it showed that the school population was catching COVID at 10x the community rate, but then I realized that I accidentally used the population of Georgia instead of the population of Cobb County in the community denominator! The actual results are:

  • Case rate among schoolchildren and staff approximately the same and approximately two-thirds of the community rate. Despite what is presumably more intensive/easier contact tracing to find asymptomatic secondary cases.
  • Provocatively, only 4/32 cases in students were unambiguously student ā†’ student, and only an additional 4 student cases were ambiguously sourced.
  • 0 unambiguous student ā†’ staff cases.

Conclusion: Vaccinate staff and reopen schools immediately? KIDS SPREAD IT.

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Even taking your read here as correct, your position is incorrect and your tone is not helpful. The question in play isnā€™t if schools contribute to spread at a rate higher than the community at large, the question is if they contribute to spread and how much. It doesnā€™t magically ok to have school if a community is going to Applebeeā€™s every night.

Finally, shit like this bugs the absolute crap out of me:

Provocatively, only 4/32 cases in students were unambiguously student ā†’ student, and only an additional 4 student cases were ambiguously sourced.

Limitations to your data collection should not be the basis for your conclusion, and this line of thinking is not even a little bit valid.

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Czech Republic getting a bunch of Sputnik doses.

Is it legit?

This question is unanswerable without some baseline for comparison. What are teachers and students doing if they arenā€™t in school, and how does the risk of that compare to the risk of school? Itā€™s not unreasonable to assume that the baseline risk is approximately what the community is experiencing. More specifically, a child is going to be under the care of some adult somewhere. Itā€™s not unreasonable to imagine that itā€™s less risky for the adult to be a teacher, with both parties masked and socially distant, than for it to be a parent.

Iā€™m not following what youā€™re trying to say with your other point at all.

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My main problem with that and the Chinese one is that while they have published studies, itā€™s not clear that we can trust that they didnā€™t fudge some of the data.

My main fear is that it wouldnā€™t be as protective, but Iā€™m largely speculating. If it were actually an option for me, Iā€™d research it a lot more than I have (which is almost none).

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https://twitter.com/dhruvkhullar/status/1365485658605826051?s=21

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Thatā€™s true by definition, but doesnā€™t make your random community level spread valid. Nothing else in that post makes it valid tbh. You cannot compare a community that isnā€™t taking covid seriously, compare that to a school where the spread is the same as that, and conclude that it is safe to open for school.

Thatā€™s a preposterous argument.

The point to the latter of my post is you pointing out that we only know X amount of student to student transmission happened. The problem is that the methods sucked, you donā€™t actually know how many cases there were. Itā€™s not valid to say ā€˜well we looked in this stupid way and didnā€™t find it, so it must not be thereā€™. Itā€™s like counting M&Ms in a jar with a blind fold on and declaring that thereā€™s definitely only 1 jar in the room because you only found one.

At this point, the public health people are saying to open the schools.