COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

I’ve read a handful of long-hauler stories where they were a marathoner or fitness trainer or something pre-covid - super driven, super fit. It seems really unlikely someone like that is going to immediately flip over to psychiatric-based chronic fatigue syndrome.

On the anecdotal flip side, the two women I’ve known who thought they had chronic fatigue syndrome and fibromyalgia were kind of a mess and really did not like work.

I wonder if being a marathoner or exercise junkie actually makes you more susceptible to some of covid’s long term symptoms.

Very strong COVID podcast from the journal Science, gonna call this a must-listen:

https://www.sciencemag.org/podcast/all-your-covid-19-vaccine-questions-answered-and-new-theory-forming-rocky-planets

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It’s not a question if there are people that have long term issues that are not the obvious things like lung damage. The question is what fraction is a true syndrome and what fraction is a collection of symptoms that have other causes but assigned to Covid.

I’m in the wait and see camp. I’m sympathetic to those struggling after Covid and am more than willing to give them each individually the benefit of the doubt. Regardless of the cause-real or misassigned or hyper aware of their bodies or psychosomatic—they are suffering. It doesn’t bother me at all for that to be called long haul for now.

I do suspect that long term there will be a medical diagnostic definition that will classify a large fraction differently than long haul Covid similar to things CN has mentioned. He has doctored through these issues before.

The only real tragedy is if people don’t get effective treatment based on a misdiagnosis and personal misunderstanding of their own specific underlying causes.

Two weeks out from my second shot now. Had dinner last night with a friend who is also two weeks out and has been more strict than I have the entire pandemic. Felt both super weird and incredibly normal to be in his house. I really don’t think I’ll feel comfortable being in public settings for a long time. No way will I be eating inside a restaurant any time soon. Any maskless activity is going to be really uncomfortable I think. What a weird time we are living through.

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Yeah, I thought about this too. Like, I’m not anywhere close to getting a shot yet, but when I get one, when would I out to eat again? It may not be until 2022 until I can get my girls vaccinated that I go out to eat with the whole family. A date night when we’re both vaccinated? I guess maybe when there’s at least ~50% of the local population vaccinated and restaurants have been opened for full capacity indoor dining for at least a month with no uptick in cases? It’s ridiculous that one of life’s ordinary and nearly universal luxuries is now a life and death decision.

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My wife and I have come pretty close to deciding that we’re sending the kids to in person school in the fall whether they are vaccinated or not. The two of us will have been vaccinated by then as will most of the adult community that desires to be vaccinated. Their own prognosis is good enough that I think the benefits of going to school will outweigh that downside risk. They can still spread it to others, some of whom could die, but that effect will be mitigated by widespread vaccination. So, it’s not ideal, but we’re willing to accept it.

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I haven’t even got my 1st jab yet - (mid-50s so shouldn’t be too long now - maybe I should finally sign-up with a Doc as well) - but when I’ve had them I am sooooo looking forward to having a beer in my local as I haven’t had one for over a year now and I’m getting thirsty.

… oh and Monday night pub poker - it took years for me to find my current game and it’s just so good - good drink, good food, good players and great company - really looking forward to that hopefully later this year again?

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Short answer is yes I’m worried, but I think the benefit outweighs the small risks.

I’m not really worried that about the blood vessel thing. It seems like something that should be probably be recovered from in the long run.

I hadn’t heard about the diabetes thing. That link is not super convincing, but I guess I have to look into that further.

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It sounds complicated when you lay it out like that, but almost all of those factors point in the direction of a big fourth wave. To put it another way, what data suggests anything other than continuously rising infection counts with restrained hospitalization and death numbers until we reach herd immunity through a combination of natural immunity and vaccinations?

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Little point young children wearing masks, says Sage expert

A scientist advising the UK government says there is little point in primary school children wearing face masks.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4, Professor Calum Semple, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), says: "Primary school children are the lowest risk both to themselves and to society.”

He says there is “really good data” that shows children are half to a third as likely to acquire the virus.

“When it comes to transmitting they are probably half as likely to transmit it as adults,” Prof Semple says, adding: "That risk actually gets smaller as you go into younger age groups.

"I am not a great fan of young children wearing face masks. If I had to invest in a single activity to improve the environment both for the children and the adults, I’d be looking at improving the ventilation, unsealing windows that have been painted shut and kept shut for energy-saving reasons.

“That would be a much more effective way to reduce transmission in schools.”

Prof Semple adds that data shows teachers going to school “as a workplace are no more at risk than people in general society going about their daily living and normal working environment”.

Link…

Today is Second Moderna Shot +14 days for me. I plan on entering a supermarket today for the first time in nearly exactly 1 year.

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If teachers only went to work then it could be safer… but they don’t. The one’s I know go here, there and everywhere.

It is and has been this side of the Atlantic - we’ve been testing the same 15,000 families every week since April, syptoms or no symptoms, all with school age kids atteding schools (NHS worker families) in a country that genomically sequences, track and traces so follows the infection trail.

Primary school kids (<12yrs) have never worn masks in UK schools - in fact I think it’s olny France in the whole of Europe that masked under 12’s. And schools have never closed here - so I guess the data is ‘good’

Schools are safe.

Here’s what I think the best idea is to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 among students and teachers.

Adds up, imo.

Edit: Would take stuff like that way more seriously if they just came out and said “it’s fine if some kids and some teachers contract and spread around COVID-19, cuz hardly any of the kids will die, and because we can just get more teachers.”

Just be honest about it and say that degree of suffering is worth it for the greater good that comes with children learning inside of a schoolhouse.

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what degree?

If incidence gets pretty low I think its an easy choice and I would expect it will be. Outbreaks will be more local flare-ups.

I’d expect they would be doing some mitigation measures still by then.

I’d want the school to have a plan should there be a local outbreak–either go remote/hybrid/or increase mask/distancing measures.

(Remember I’m not anti-OFS, I’m not pro-OFS without a good plan, and lolUSA plans under Trump).

Turns out the schools that take shit extremely seriously and constantly test kids have less COVID! I’m sure we can extrapolate this to every school in the US!

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In the U.K., a new paper published in The Lancet found that partial school reopenings this summer were associated with a low risk of cases; out of more than 57,000 schools and nurseries, the study found just 113 cases associated with 55 outbreaks. These cases were correlated strongly with local infection rates, showing how important it is to reduce community transmission to keep schools safe. “Transmission will occur in schools, just as it will anywhere that people mix,” Munro says. “But children aren’t the drivers of disease.” Instead, it’s increasingly clear that in many countries, it’s people in their 20s and 30s who spark outbreaks that then spill over into both older people and children.

The best way to understand how transmission might occur between children and adults would be to constantly monitor healthy families with school-age children to see if they get infected. By testing frequently, scientists would catch infections as they occur, making it clear who got sick first.

Iceland and deCODE put this into practice by conducting comprehensive testing and tracing, screening more than half the country’s population: Anyone who was potentially exposed was quarantined, sealing them off from the community, but often exposing their families. By looking at the difference between adults and children in these quarantines, deCODE found that children play a minor role in transmission.

Germany, South Korea, UK and just about everywhere that has and continues to study it still finds that the world is not flat.

I have 4 kids under 12yrs and an underlying condition - no first vaccine yet - I know this is emotive for you - you’ll never see the study you’ll need to see before sending your kids back unvaccinated, which I guess you won’t do - it’s never going to be risk free but it way lower risk than you attribute (IMO).

Just fine and dandy to see some in the thread release the kids, now Ma and Pa have their vaccine

Analysis – why the focus on age not occupation?

The next phase of the vaccination programme aimed at the under-50s is all about speed.

The more quickly they can be vaccinated, the more lives can be saved from Covid-19 (reducing pressure on hospitals) and the more likely the roadmap out of lockdown can be delivered.

The government’s committee of vaccine experts says that means people should be vaccinated according to what age they are and not what job they do.

It would be more complicated and more time-consuming to invite all teachers or police officers for their first dose than to make an offer to all those in their 40s, for example.

Research by the Office for National Statistics suggests a number of occupations have higher-than-average death rates, including restaurant workers, taxi drivers, metal workers and shop assistants – so which group would be prioritised first and how would they be identified?

The conclusion is that a fast, efficient rollout to all adults, by age group, is the best way to achieve the target of giving all adults a first dose by the end of July.

To know more about this issue, read here.

Side effects of dose 2 are no joke. Currently have a 100.5 fever and can’t get out of bed. I ache all over my body (especially my feet wtf) and feel like I did after a HS football game mixed with a hangover. No side effects after 1st dose.

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Primary schools c. half the average community spread, secondary schools (12+yrs) about the same as community (but the schools are unmasked, the community is masked)