It’s wholly expected that not all students/teacher cases are from transmission at school. I’m not sure what that proves or what the point is absent an agenda. In Fitzmagic’s^ top 10 football games we can project he must be the among best QBs of all time.
The main point of posting is the connections and support of organizations that are known partisan actors in the OFS-OFB-herd immunity debate and not shockingly there is a Venn diagram overlap with human caused climate change denial.
Summary
^for the non American football followers, there is a guy knicknamed Fitzmagic (Fitzpatrick) that has either incredible or horrible performances. On average he isn’t very good but and he is often not the starter, but on a few occasions he has gotten to start and runs off 3 great games in a row but then stinks for 6 games.
I think some of it is what you have been talking about. States hit hard in early fall are receding. That is probably due to increased restrictions, people making better personal choices or so many people being infected that most of the people behaving poorly already are infected. They are being replaced by a new wave of states like California.
I still think we likely have days with deaths over 4k before this is all said and done. Maybe it won’t ever get to the 5-6k range some predicted but I think we see a 7dma over 3k with spikes in the mid 4000s by early January. It’s hard to imagine Christmas not being a really bad super spreader event. Quite a few people I know that did not do Thanksgiving seem to be having Christmas parties and get togethers. There is still a lot of fertile ground to plow amongst the 30% of of the country who has taken this seriously this whole time and who has little to no immunity. That group could get hammered by Christmas.
Just FYI on the numbers, and Im probably not breaking news here, but I get some expert call stuff through work. The feedback from someone very involved/senior with the incoming admin team is that the case numbers right now arent trustworthy. Public health departments are overwhelmed and, supposedly, there are multiple states where thousands of reported cases are just flat out not making it into the official numbers. His take is that we’ve hit a reporting ceiling, but it that it isnt accurately reflecting the rise in case counts. Death count 28 days out will tell the story. Take it FWIW, but his take is the rise is worse than the numbers indicate.
EDIT: He’s also, unfortunately, pretty bearish about vaccine effectiveness on the new strain, but he does tend to be a pandemic bear so take that with a grain of salt. Not like OMG they won’t work, but more of a well there’s a real risk it is going to reduce effectiveness, the way the mutation came about is concerning, and Europe/UK’s reaction to the strain should tell you that the experts are saying this is a real issue.
Last night I watched the opening segments on local news nbc 7 and their first stories were
Interviews with local businesses being crushed by the pandemic. They want to open, they’re unfairly being forced to closed while other businesses remain open, these people are just devastated and don’t know what to do, etc.
Interviews of doctors at hospitals telling everyone to stay home or else the hospitals get overrun, things are going really bad, people are dying and testing positive at record rates in San Diego county
Interviews of families in their cars at a private testing site in a nice neighborhood. Every single person says want to get tested so they can travel and get together with more relatives over the holidays. All of them look rich and white.
what the hell what am I suppose think when I watch this no wonder we’re screwed
(Also, cases should drop first before hospitalizations. People frequently test positive before admission, then get admitted for a week or so, then get discharged. Would guess it’s a 1-2 week lag.)
James Gallagher
Health and science correspondent, BBC News
New variant ‘almost certainly’ in majority of Europe
The new variant of coronavirus is almost certainly in the majority of European countries already, according to Prof Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London.
He was giving evidence to the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee alongside other experts from the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, which advises government.
The variant has already been detected in other countries such as Denmark, but is likely to have spread much wider.
Prof Ferguson said: “I’m almost certain in my view, that this virus has been introduced into the great majority if not all European countries at this time.”
The UK has sequenced 45% of all the genetic codes of coronavirus in the world and it is still not certain whether it originated in the south east of England or was just first detected there.
This has raised concerns the UK is being punished for discovering the variant.
At the same hearing, Prof Peter Horby, from the University of Oxford, said: "I think it’s fair to say countries that have more extensive and rigorous science and are more transparent do expose themselves to important information being made available to others.”
Selection pressure plus
Lots of opportunities for mutation=
More transmission
Probably not at proof level yet but the preponderance of evidence sure points that way.
Not surprising. Its why depressing case numbers is so important. Followed by eradication or at least severely reducing case numbers such that contact tracing works well for isolation and ring inoculation.
Some Americans working in healthcare are beginning to receive their shots, but widespread vaccination will take time, and kids will be later. It’s believed that we need 70 percent or 80 percent of people vaccinated to achieve some kind of herd immunity that can slow the spread of the disease, and that definitely won’t be reached in January or February. So we need to be patient, wear masks, keep our precautions up for a little while longer.
Just monstrous!
EDIT: Oops, that was a link to a Templeton-supported researcher winning the 2020 Chemistry Nobel. Link to the herd-immunity/COVID denial/OFB stuff is here.
We’re awaiting other countries to perform their own sequencing data and leaving them to make their own announcements.
He was giving evidence to the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee alongside other experts from the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, which advises government.
UK has 800 untested truckdrivers crossing it’s border with mainland Europe every 24hrs. Also a fair bit of passenger traffic. New variant sequenced back as early as 2x September so, IMO it would be a small miracle if it weren’t already ‘all over’ mainland Europe. Italy - confirmed. France came out a few days ago and confirmed they detected the South African strain.
Just a view, not a troll. I am interested to know when US will confirm one way or the other, that is all.
UK have sequenced two of the changes back to Brazil and USA as far back as june or july, but not all the mutations present.
