Yes I was just looking at deaths to go with the idea if we will or wonât hit 4K/day in January. Iâm worried the big states are going to more than make up for the decrease in the Dakotas etc.
Iâm worried the case numbers are flat due to testing. Hopeful itâs lockdowns but not sure and worried about Xmas rise.
I hopeful that the 28 day cfr is still down a notch.
Lol apparently he is the mayor of Lincoln county. I had to look that up, itâs two counties west of Chattanooga, which is pretty much the middle of nowhere even for TN
Wow this is right in line with my optimistic guess of when I thought things could potentially return to normal based on a combo of infections and vaccinations. I mean if it really happens in June timeframe there really is light at the end of the tunnel.
More info about the South African variant (Oliveira is one of the authors):
https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1341360696580321281
Link to paper:
In addition to the N501Y mutation, there are two other critical ones, K417N and E484K. The criticality is apparently related to being physically in the receptor-binding domain (RBD), which is the location that binds to the ACE2 receptor. One other interesting tidbit from the paper is that they identified the N501Y mutation in an immunocompromised person in the U.S. who was infected for 20 weeks, and are concerned that the prevalence of HIV in S.A. could lead to longer evolution opportunities within individuals. However, they immediately say thatâs not what happened. Not sure why they brought it up, but it is an interesting concept.
Oster (the Atlantic article on OFS) seems to have some interesting funding connections.
https://twitter.com/loretta_torrago/status/1341449254930419713?s=21
â The data collected by the National COVID-19 School Response Dashboard and the optimistic interpretations Oster and other advocates for in-person instruction draw from them serve to reinforce an anti-public school and specifically anti- teacher program. To this end, a number of very predictable talking points have emerged. First: that children donât get or spread coronavirus in appreciable numbers. This is false. Second, that transmission doesnât happen in schools. This is also false. Third, any transmission that does happen in schools simply âreflectsâ the level of transmission in the surrounding community. Schools are part of the community, but to the extent that making this distinction is meaningful the assertion is false. Fourth, that any teachers, school staff, or children who die of COVID-19after working or attending school in-person didnât acquire it in school. This is morally questionable and certainly, at least in some cases, false.â
There is literally nothing in SW Tennessee between Chattanooga and Memphis⌠maybe Jackson?
TFW youâre definitely not about to make up a bunch of straw men to argue withâŚ
EDIT: Also, wouldnât climate change deniers want schools to be closed so that kids donât learn? Doesnât even make any sense!
The degree to which people are willing to stan for Emily Oster is becoming cult-like.
Solid post chief.
Ty caffeine. It must be hard.
Onion, obv.
Jackâs def much smarter than thatâŚ,
O i wonder if the massive explosion of cases in California and now Georgia is an indication of this variant spreading.
Apparently since November 15th only 300 cases have been genetically sequenced in the US. So basically we have no idea because we are not really looking it for it.
noncompliance with mandates and no effective response is far more likely.
I am going to manifest reality and claim that we have peaked.
Chattanooga and Memphis are on opposite ends of the state. Jackson is between Memphis and Nashville. But yes, the southern edge of TN is all pasture.
Georgia isnât having anything approaching Californiaâs levels (1/2 the per capita case rate), but yes, the spike in California is complete insanity.
To me, the surges, peaks, and retreats of the virus seem extreme and difficult to explain by behavior alone.
Like, why are Quebec and Ontario both seeing sustained growth in caseload for months despite actual real lockdowns (like, no gyms or indoor dining in many places) while places like goddamn Iowa have no restrictions whatsoever and see their rate slashed by 70%?
Make no mistake: Iâm not arguing against mitigation. Mitigation is the reason Ontarioâs peak case rate is one tenth Iowaâs peak rate adjusted by population. What Iâm arguing is that tomorrowâs case rate has to be more than a function of todayâs case rate and the mitigations present.