COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

https://twitter.com/shelli_rosen/status/1358027382087684096?s=21

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The new CDC director was on Maddow saying that schools can be safely reopened with appropriate precautions. Granted, half of the schools will hear that and YOLO it, but that doesn’t mean the other half is dangerous.

“Half” is doing a lot of work here. LolUSA#183 when whole states are committed to doing things wrong.

Also “half” is pretty privilege biased.

Plus the whole point is that a lot of the “data” is garbage. Bad assumptions about who is and who isn’t a contact, lack of thorough testing (and an extreme observer bias— places that do have intense testing tend to be the thorough rule followers).

We can hope that schools can do a great job but I’ve hoped my whole life that the Lions are just about to turn the corner. Quite frankly I think the Lions have a better shot.

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https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1358192968742539264

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A spokesman for AstraZeneca said they had not yet been able to properly establish whether the jab would prevent severe disease and hospitalisation caused by the South Africa variant because those involved in the study had predominantly been young, healthy adults.

But the company expressed confidence that the vaccine would offer protection against serious cases, because it created neutralising antibodies similar to those of other coronavirus vaccines.

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Damn this post is good (not yours, lol, Scott’s), and I’m only halfway through. Haunting:

Expertise isn’t a sham. The Director of the CDC could generate opinions as accurate as (or more accurate than) Zvi’s, if she wanted to. Maybe she’s even doing that internally, when she decides what precautions she and her family should take. Or maybe she isn’t; I know a lot of people who have turned into the mask they put on to succeed, just because it’s easier that way.

What I sometimes call Marx’s Fallacy is that if we burnt down the current system, some group of people who optimized for things other than power would naturally rise to the top. Wrong. People who most brutally and nakedly optimized for power would gain power; that’s what “optimize” means. The interesting thing about the current system is that, after millions of very smart and altruistic people have contributed to it over generations, sometimes gaining and keeping power within it is modestly correlated with being good and right… Think of centers of expertise like the CDC or the IGM Economists Panel as giant systems for disentangling corruption and power. Their job is to produce one or two people who can get in front of the population and say something which has some resemblance to reality, even though the entire rest of the economy and body politic is trying to corrupt them .

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That headline could not be more misleading:

But Prof Sarah Gilbert, Oxford lead vaccine developer, said vaccines should still protect against severe disease.

She added that developers were likely to have a modified jab by the autumn to combat the South Africa variant.

“We have a version with the South African spike sequence in the works,” Prof Gilbert told the BBC’s Andrew Marr.

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Gf got round #2 of Pfizer yesterday at 2pm. Symptoms started to kick in around midnight and she’s currently couch-ridden with pretty bad aches and chills, though temp is normal. I assume it’s going to be a long time until I’ll be able to get a vaccine so we’re pretty happy to have partial household immunity soon.

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This one clearer? BBC changed headline to same article

A study outlining early trials, first reported by the Financial Times, suggests the vaccine offered “minimal protection” against mild and moderate disease caused by the variant, the University of Oxford said.

Prof Gilbert told the Andrew Marr Show that current vaccines “have a reduction in efficacy against some of the variant viruses”.

“What that is looking like is that we may not be reducing the total number of cases but there’s still protection in that case against deaths, hospitalisations and severe disease.”

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Headline writers:

image

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Just got back from my vaccination, and yes unfortunately it was the Oxford/AZ vaccine that this morning’s news was about.

Apparently they have no idea which type they’re getting each day lol.

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You’re still on your way to safer Covid days than you were 12 hours ago! Good work. I’m awaiting my text!

I won’t post source because I know you won’t require it but UK tracing app now showing zero vaccine effect on immunity for minimum 12 days, so a younger guy like yourself should have some immunity after 14 days. Same source reporting 50% of Netherlands cases now UK variant so they may beat US (now in over 40 states) to be the next country to go ‘proper’ exponential.

I reckon a 2nd dose for Oxford takers might well be a Sputnik top-up but that’s me guessing.

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Come on with this too. I got swept up in the over 50’s tranche.

I’m not assuming any immunity for at least 3 weeks, and hoping they have enough Pfizer + others that are effective against the SA strain to prevent that from becoming dominant, or god knows what will happen to public confidence in the medical community.

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“We found that the vaccine effectiveness was still pretty much zero until about 14 days after people were vaccinated. But then after day 14 immunity rose gradually day by day to about 90% at day 21 and then didn’t improve any further.

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UK guaranteeing all over 50’s will be vaccinated ‘by May 2021’. UK not started to inject 60–65yr olds yet or those with underlying (not severe) conditions. Like I said, Good work :) MBN :)

I bet you’re the youngest person (in UK) you know who has a vaccination without as severe underlying condition or hospital job (?) For the avoidance of doubt, I’m not belittling asthma (wife has it) and I thought you were <50yrs. And I just asking Q’s as I’m interested / might sign up with your GP!

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Can we not do this every time someone here gets the vaccine?

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Nah. The place was choc full of people in their 50s. I had thought that having intermittent asthma might have pushed me up the list but no.

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I just remember you being suprised to receive the text but sounds as though standard for 50+yr in London which must be ahead of the regions - I’m in the South West and don’t think we’re vaccinnating the 60-65yrs yet.

Anyway, good to hear we have the first Brit UP’er vaccinated.

Half vaccinated with a weak as shit vaccine from a totally overrated university. Fuck Oxbridge.

:frowning:

It’s like you’re part of a vaccine trial you never signed up for :) TBH I wish I was part of that trial.

The Oxford vaccine does what it was designed for i.e Covid. Alas, all would have been good apart from the new UK, SA and Brazil variants i.e. superCOVID (at least the UK can’t find the Brazil one yet whereas Netherlands and US have found all three).

Fairly sure you’re goodish against the UK variant so just have to dodge SA - and the UK is hunting that strain door to door currently (next postcode to mine has 8,000 households getting tested at door front)