COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

From the BBCs coverage

Guessed within 1 of the U.S. number.

Shocked but not surprised at the worldwide number.

Biden invoked the Defense Production Act. Only 11 months late. Maybe paywalled.

100% agree with this. Usually misinformation had a negative effect but in this case it should help. Most importantly I donā€™t want anti-vaxxers/anti-maskers running around claiming they got vaccinated so they donā€™t need a mask.

My second shot is scheduled for a week from today. I plan to wear a mask indefinitely, until it is clearly ok not to. Maybe Iā€™ll switch from a KN95 to just a cloth mask depending on the environment.

Your pony has rinderpest.

I knowā€“I read the story before posting the link. Like some fucking rook.

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Vaccines are already basically the GOAT and mRNA vaccines are just an improvement. But it seems like mRNA vaccines could really help against viruses that change a lot and newly emerging diseases because theyā€™re quicker to develop and get into production.

Whatā€™s the 4 weeks? I thought it was 1 week post Pfizer Nd 2 weeks post moderna that you were gucci?

I was just tossing out 4 weeks as an example. Iā€™ve heard itā€™s like ~2 weeks or so for the immunity to kick in.

The rabies and rinderpest episodes of TPWKY are pretty good.

https://thispodcastwillkillyou.com/2018/11/26/episode-14-rabies-dont-dilute-me-bro/

https://thispodcastwillkillyou.com/2020/06/23/episode-52-rinderpest-moo-cows-moo-problems/

I canā€™t find it, but the post that said along the lines that those that have been the most cautious are the ones getting Covid 2.0ā€¦ is true.

Of course, my plan is to avoid Covid 1.0 and 2.0ā€¦ Just gotta hang on until I get that sweet, sweet jab. Then Iā€™m gonna trust that the vax companies are going to be able to adapt and booster jab us if needed.

Science messaging is hard, especially to non-scientists. What sheā€™s saying here is 100% true, because it hasnā€™t been empirically shown that the vaccine prevents transmission specifically, because it wasnā€™t measured. It sounds like at least one group is looking for vaccinated volunteers to sign up and get deliberately infected with the virus so that they can be subsequently monitored. Then we can know the answer to this question, at least a lot better. People want firm answers right away, though, and so they take the lack of a firm answer to be a firm answer the other way.

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Check out the Interesting Things Explained Well Episode One, which cover rabies! And the eruption of Krakatoa. One of the GOAT podcasts imo https://interestingthingsexplainedwell.libsyn.com/

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Rabies is not a joke to the point where if you wake up in a room and notice a bat, we vaccinate you for rabies even if thereā€™s not a mark on you.

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Is your hospital full of bats?

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I just signed up to do this exact job. My Mom also does it, she said there are typically 3-4 kids in a class in my district because most kids opt to lfh.

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My parents-in-law (both over 70) got vaccinated in Texas today. When I talked to them a couple weeks ago, they were very far down the waiting list, so seems like things are progressing well.

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Somehow I just discovered Slate Star Codex or whatever he used to call himself. FU anyone who read his blog and didnā€™t tell me. For those who donā€™t know - heā€™s a psychiatrist who somehow finds time to pen like 20k words/week of incredibly rich content. His posts are basically like how I imagine my book sounding in my head - incredible brain-tickling insights put forward in clear language. But then I read this and cry because Iā€™m so so far away and this guy cranks these out in his sleep apparenlty.

The NY Times found him, did an interview, then said they were going to doxx him. So he shut down the blog in protest.

Anyway I got on his free mailing list a few weeks ago and pretty much every post has been amazing so far. Hard to pluck out just quotes but this one is good:

When Zvi asserts an opinion, he has only one thing heā€™s optimizing for - being right - and he does it well.

When the Director of the CDC asserts an opinion, she has to optimize for two things - being right, and keeping power. If she doesnā€™t optimize for the second, she gets replaced as CDC Director by someone who does. That means sheā€™s trying to solve a harder problem than Zvi is, and it makes sense that sometimes, despite having more resources than Zvi, she does worse at it.

This post led me to a blog he links which speaks directly to the idea of doing your own research:

We were all ahead of the CDC on this stuff, and we knew it. But as the first post mentions - there are unfortunate reasons for that. And basically there are times and reasons for when doing your own research is superior to the official sources - but most people are idiots for whom doing your own research ends badly.

Not sure what rock youā€™ve been under. He was repeatedly discussed on the old forum.

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you should have already been reading ShtetlO, heā€™s been around for 15+ years as well.