Comparisons with the 1918 flu have always been dicey imo. The timelines realy don’t match at all.
Got a text message late last night for a surprising vaccine appointment for this Sunday.
I guess they factored in a history of asthma 'cos I ain’t that old.
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You jammy person.
That surprises me too. I’m on the vulnerable (not severly vulnerable) list and thought we weren’t in to that group yet.
I hope you don’t think it strange I’m remembering you might be from London area - there does seem to be low take up in the 75yr+ group in comparison to the other regions so maybe London area first to open up to those with underlying conditions.
Any preference to Pfizer or Oxford? My folks got Pfizer in Surrey last weeknd (75yr Dad got appointment text and 74yr old Mum went along with her docs ‘just in case’ and got jabbed too)
LOOOL reported for stalking!
I was taken aback and wasn’t expecting it until April at the earliest. Maybe the recent prescriptions for inhalers affected it.
I’d much prefer the Pfizer of course but I’ll take whatever’s given and thank my lucky stars the government got one thing right over the past year (10 years?).
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Too early too tell if we get one more late winter/early spring push IMHO. This forecast trickier than the other ones that this site has nailed, just a lot of variables. Easier for optimism about the summer and beyond, but think there’s going to be some degree of individual risk tolerance and simmering COVID for years vs. true herd immunity. The article posted above talks about the UK health minister opining society will “tolerate” some number of deaths and sickness levels from COVID. I think that’s likely where we are headed for 2022-2025. If there are 50,000 deaths a year and long COVID in the background, think most/all restrictions are lifted and that’s just society as work for a better state continues in the background.
You really think that?
Seems there are a lot of parallels.
Reuters dive into the shit show that is the EU vaccine campaign. Lots of spin and counter spin, but just going by the numbers it does seem like they got screwed by AZ.
They were getting 3.5 million Pfizer per week from when it was approved in late December. There was a slow down for a week or so, but I don’t think by much. On the other hand up until early December they were on for 120 million AZ in 2021 Q1. AZ reduced that to 80 million on Dec 4, and then 31 million on Jan 22nd.
EU can’t get off lightly, though. Hard to be sure given I think details of all the contracts aren’t public, but it reads like the EU got screwed because they had the weakest contract. Which is probably mostly on the EU.
There are some parallels but also big differences. We’re not even sure why the 1918 outbreak behaved the way it did.
I think the US has one last Superbowl bump in us - now with more super covid!
I’m actually curious about this - I’ve seen this bandied about a lot and would like to dig a bit deeper into this. Not trolling or trying to incite any weird rivalry, just genuine curiosity.
What does “locked down” mean in the context of the UK? Is it everyone in every city, town, village, hamlet (whatever ya’ll call stuff) sheltering in place? Is it universal across the entire country with no local variability?
I see mentioned that in the US there is “no lockdown”, and I generally agree with this, however as someone who has only left their home a handful of times over the last year, I feel pretty darn locked down. Is the government stationing armed soldiers outside my door to keep me from leaving my house? No. But I have to imagine that I’m every bit as locked down as the Brits, and while my experience isn’t universal across the entire country, there are still plenty of folks like me.
Are there not different degrees of precautions taken across the vastness of the UK, or is everyone subject to restrictions in their freedom of movement? Legitimately interested in your perspective as I don’t have visibility into that level of detail across the pond.
Mandatory journeys (for work if you can’t WFH and shopping etc) and outdoors exercising in groups of two only.
My friend and his parents have taken UP level covid precautions since March. Friend has not been inside his parents house, none of them have been to any stores, etc. Got a text from my friends mom yesterday inviting me to Easter dinner at their house in April. My initial reaction was “wtf um no” before I realized we all will be more than a month and half past our second vaccine shot by then. It just feels so foreign. But if everyb6there is vaxxed then it should be safe to join, right? Man this is going to take a while to get used to the post pandemic world - if we ever really get to that point.
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It won’t be completely safe until it’s disappeared, which may be never. These aren’t going to be easy decisions but I’d wait and see how far the infection rates have fallen by then.
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Yea I’ve been told it’s pretty safe for me (unvaccinated) to hang out with my nurse friends who are well past their second dose
I get to go to a superbowl party, woo. But yea it’s going to be weird.
I’m going snowboarding with a few people I have yet to meet, and I’m very worried my months of isolation has given me weird habits. Like I’m genuinely concerned I won’t come off as a normal human being because other than small trips to the grocery store very rarely I’ve only had face to face interaction with people a few times over the last few months.
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Not sure what you mean by “behaved”, so maybe I’m missing something.
In 1918 it initially spread massively via troop transport because of the war in Europe. Transport ships were hotbeds of transmission among thousands of soldiers being carried hither and thither.
2020 via massive amounts of readily available international air travel.
Then lots of similar stuff: anti-maskers. 2nd waves. Opening up too soon etc
Yea when I realized that I may be able to enjoy some normalcy for the first time in 13 months it was kind of exciting. I think if any one of us wasn’t vaccinated, or if anyone in my household wasn’t, then I would decline. I haven’t made a decision yet and obviously have time to do so, but barring any awful news on Moderna efficacy it likely will be my first “risky” activity for me which I know will be a bit uncomfortable.
Crazy to think that tons of people are currently eating in restaurants and shopping and visiting friends completely unvaccinated and here I am fretting over a dinner with 5 fully vaccinated people, myself included, two months from now.
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My fact-checking for that claim led me to this piece:
Which sounds like everything nonessential is closed and you can only leave your house for good reasons.
Here’s something on Denmark, which actually has good data on regular vs. superCOVID:
From this piece, it sounds like Denmark has closed schools and restaurants, but (I think) has left other businesses open. That’s good enough to crush standard COVID, but leaves superCOVID with R just above 1.
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I haven’t put much thought into it because being vaccinated is still such a distant hypothetical for me. That being said, it seems crazy to me to not attend a function where literally everyone has been fully vaccinated.
I mean, if we’re saying that fully vaccinated gatherings aren’t sufficiently safe to conduct, then I think we’re entering the previously-strawman territory of “we cannot engage in any activity that carries with it any possibility of someone getting sick, no matter how remote and no matter what the benefits of holding that gathering would be”.
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