Yeah fuck me Churchill. It’s not like my wife is bloated as all hell from doing a round of IVF and likes stupid sugary sweet weird thing at Starbucks to feel better. I’m clearly valuing my Starbucks over kids going to school. Why you think it’s appropriate to post that is beyond me.
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The lack of urgency displayed by this govt is on a par with its competence - 11 days away ffs.
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So, UK joins China, Australia, Thailand, NZ and Singapore in 11 days time (any more countries?)
Are we late or are we ahead of the other 200+ countries.
11 days gives the government the time to set the proposal into law, a few hotels to adapt to quarantine hotel procedures and a few of those whingers on vacation to get back home before we see those press columns full of peeps abroad stating ‘zomg, we got no notice’
Not having a bash, I have zero UK political tendancies which is why I only haunt this thread. Trying not to be a Boris stan but starting this thing tonight ain’t gonna work operationally
Again completely unnecessary. I’m starting to think there is a lowest common denominator at play in this equation.
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Again about 10 months behind UP
What a fucking tool at the Florida store all over the news today.
I smell it if my neighbor smokes. I smell it if someone in the car in front of me on the freeway driving 70mph is smoking.
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I don’t follow this closely enough, but you’re mad about believing something about schools that other people scoffed at. Maybe you had some point, maybe you didn’t. Stop bringing it up like this.
(Posted from a covid testing line)
Eta: Also, imo, everyone quit attacking people for their personal shit altogether. PM them if you want. Or PM everyone else itt to see if they are ok with you wasting their time.
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Thread is dead… Is covid over?
It’s over. Go crazy!
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I’m going to Olive Garden tonight to shove some breadsticks up my ass and drink a gallon of soup
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So cases in the US appear to be falling rapidly, which is great news. The holiday death bloodbath should start to abate as well.
Are we thinking that this is the backside of what everyone predicted was the true crushing second wave? Would we anticipate things continue to decline into summer, which was generally “better” last year?
Are we going to see an even bigger “third wave”? Curious to get some predictions as thread consensus has pretty much nailed it at every step of the way thus far…
Because its your right as an American!
I don’t think there will be a big third wave. The big wild card in my mind was the new more contagious variants. Those don’t seem to be dominant in the US yet. And even in the UK it looks like vaccination is already having a favorable impact on the rate of spread. The US has administered 35 million doses so far. To the extent that vaccines are going to the most vulnerable and exposed, that should really help reduce the death rate even if we do see increased spread.
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Well, at least you can remain masked during the breadsticks course.
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My best guess is the biggest wave is behind us now. Whether or not we have a fourth wave or not probably depends on whether we get enough people vaccinated before one of these hyper contagious strains takes over. While we aren’t to herd immunity at this point we probably do have most of the people at high risk of catching it with immunity. My best estimate for where we are at right now is:
30-40% have natural immunity.
10% have some or full immunity from the vax.
20-30% continue to live carefully enough to be at low risk of contracting Covid.
That doesn’t leave a huge reservoir of people to get pozzed anymore even though there is some overlap in those groups. Now if the last group eases up too early or if immunity doesn’t last as long as we hope(not much evidence for this) then there may be another large spike but I would guess no.
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I generally agree. We will get a moderate next wave that will be driven by the variants and some level of quarantine fatigue. It’s helpful that as this wave fades we will be heading into spring.
But #1 anyplace that decides to go true YOLO with no masks, full OFB OFS dining church concerts—-will pay a price.
But #2 a mutation arises that gets around acquired immunity
This gets back to herd immunity- true herd immunity means that there are no broad outbreaks with no masks, no distancing.
For a good chunk of the next few months we will be dependent on 3 legged stool of partial immunity, masks and distancing. Let up in any of these and we will get at least a modest wave. Eventually we will get a solid post of herd immunity unless the anti-vaxxers prevent it. Even if the virus mutates around natural or vaccine immunity, I expect modified vaccines to be able to knock them down fairly rapidly (6?months?). Especially once we get better supply chain rolling and apply to modified vaccines.
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The UK is locked down though, and vaccinating faster than us. The US isn’t locked down and if early vaccinations blunt a spike in deaths and hospitalizations, we almost certainly won’t be. It looks like the J&J vaccine won’t be available until March, AZ is in limbo, and the current rate of vaccination is plateauing. I would bet a lot that we see the current downward trend in new cases reverse itself soon and sharply.
The 20%-30% who have been living carefully are the ones who are going to get superCOVID.
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Exactly. And although we are vaccinating at a greater rate and only vaccinating +70yr olds, we are being informed that vaccinations will only start to be shown in lowering infection rates in the Autumn i.e. way too early to think any country’s vaccination programme is leading to lower infection rates.
Yes, the second wave should be along in early March, IMO