COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

So we wait to shut down until it gets awesomely bad but if the 7 day average drops by 1 its YOLO.

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At least they’re not opening the schools!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-vaccine-coronavirus/2021/01/25/f1ce56dc-5f2e-11eb-9430-e7c77b5b0297_story.html

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“I think with the grace of God . . . we’ll be able to get that to 1.5 million a day,” Biden told reporters.

Well we’re fucked.

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Long time ago they issued some closure in my city and the state made them stop it. And my city has been kinda famously OFB at times. He’s been mixed on this all along. Easy to say whatever during press conferences.

Check out the change in LA county deaths just since this November:

COVID-19 Weekly Update
Week Manhattan Beach
New Cases Manhattan Beach
New Deaths Los Angeles
New Cases Los Angeles
New Deaths
January 18 - January 24 53 3 58,449 1,402
January 11 - January 17 63 2 94,485 1,598
January 4 - January 10 101 2 101,538 1,477
December 28 - January 3 89 0 98,806 1,291
December 21 - December 27 55 0 96,163 607
December 14 - December 20 60 0 98,184 577
December 7 - December 13 45 0 75,635 389
November 30 - December 6 59 0 54,008 270
November 23 - November 29 33 0 31,323 201
November 16 - November 22 28 0 25,583 174
November 9 - November 15 20 0 17,353 97
November 2 - November 8 15 0 13,017 98

New deaths in LA county (per week) is the last number in each line

What’s nuts is that the US is 6th in the world in vaccines per 100 inhabitants with 6.82. Israel, UAE, Seychelles, UK and Bahrain are the only countries ahead of them. Sure they fucked up basically everywhere else but they’re on point regarding vaccinations compared to most of the world.

Czech Republic is 15th in the EU at 1.81 vaccinations per 100 people. 15th doesn’t sound terrible until people remember that we’re 2nd in the EU in both covid cases per capita and covid deaths per capita over the last 14 days. We should be getting these out way faster given our situation.

seems good

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1354042345524752385

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I hope that trend is coming to California rather than our trend heading to everyone else.

Yep, a lot of the leading indicators are positive.

%pos rate has declined to 11% recently (peak was 17%). Overall cases are below the pre-Christmas levels on the same number of tests. Hospitalization rate is down about 15% from its peak.

As we vaccinate more and more people and the reduced transmission rates take hold, the death rate should plummet in the coming weeks. The pandemic remains an extremely huge challenge, but hopefully the period of 3,000 deaths/day will soon be behind us for good.

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I think (hope) many people will be/are being more careful as the time when they can get vaccinated gets closer. I think even with not-braindead people there’s been a little “this thing is never going to end and we’re all going to get it anyway so YOLO”. But when the end is in sight I think a lot of people understand that it would be so incredibly stupid to be careless and die when they are a few months from vaccination.

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Yeah some people are really good at pretending. I’ve dated some people I thought were decent who ended up being pretty awful. Though I was in my early to mid 20s.

Denmark, genomically sequencing 100% of their positive tests would most definately think it’s heading outwards but most ITT seem convinced otherwise.

Fauci is onboard but the messaging needs to be stronger.

Can you explain exactly what you’re trying to say here, because once again, it makes zero sense and I’m tired of guessing at your nonsense.

J&J vaccine phase III report supposedly coming out next week. Their early data was quite promising. Different type of vaccine so I assume there won’t be a ton of cross over in raw material other than glass vials. Could put us over the top.

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Also don’t understand. I don’t think anyone here disputes that there are mutant strains that are taking over as the dominant strain due to faster spread.

we have a friend in that trial. No reaction so he’s wondering if he got placebo. On the other hand, another friend’s wife got Moderna two weeks ago with no reaction.

Every country that has been bashed by the UK variant has experienced a drop in cases whilst the more transmissible variant becomes dominant.

The best analogy is the guy stood on the beach, watching the tide go out incredibly far only to get mullered by the fast moving, unescapable wave that we all knew, after seeing the vid 4 times and would now know, was coming.

Just trying to warn the folks that the Tsunami is coming.

Danish public health officials say that if it weren’t for their extensive monitoring, they would be feeling a false sense of confidence right now. Overall, new daily confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Denmark have been dropping for a month.

I believe this will be problem for US, more than any other country to date becuase you have not and will not lockdown hard enough to stop the spread.

Attempted to get a vaccine appointment in New York after a co-worker confirmed that higher ed support staff was eligible. Called, was informed that there were no appointments within 200 miles through April, but to try back again since things could conceivable open up.

Yeah right, but called back a few hours later, and got a February 11 appointment. Before my 75 year old parents’ March appointments. Feel guilty to a degree, extremely fortunate/lucky to a large degree.

But, a good case study for eligible folks in NY that there were no available time slots - try back frequently!

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so I was right and you were talking about something wholly different than anyone else. Thanks.

Two reasons for this to happen

  1. The new strain(s) bypasses current control efforts
  2. On the downside of cases, people relax lockdown efforts

I’d place my bet on primary (2) with a side helping of (1).

And of course the US will get smacked hard. Alot of colleges seem to be coming back in person, Villanova down the street is back on campus this week.