COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

[DrChesspain]

@goofyballer

Vaccine question - when/if elderly parents get vaccinated, would the smart people ITT feel comfortable resuming maskless, indoor activity with them in private settings?

Not a snarky question: Are you more concerned for their health or yours?

[Danspartan]

Cite?

[Danspartan]

@Surf

I’m hesitant to post as it’s clearly not a published paper and may be found to be completely erroneous, but I think it’s interesting to at least think about. So far it’s mostly just interviews with one of the doctors so the source is some random radio station website lol

Posting it as new info so wtf does this mean. You didn’t mention any grey in your initial post. Please do better (that’s for all of is itt- it’s a pain but necessary).

[Danspartan]

It sounded like you were directly quoting a study.

[CaffeineNeeded]

There’s no methods but it sure looks like the other papers where they use bad methods that have near zero chance to find an affect and then declare it safe based on that.

The idea that schools don’t spread covid when they spread every other disease is not really a serious one.

[MrWookie]

Kids can and do spread the virus to each other, and then to their homes.

[microbet]

Lemma on goofy’s post/NBZ poll

Will you feel comfortable resuming maskless, indoor activity with elderly relatives in private settings after both you and they are vaccinated?

• yes
• no

[amead]

Of course, the wishcasting otherwise is just silly.

100% of my nieces and nephews that have been attending in person school have contracted COVID-19. 100% of my nieces and nephews that have not been attending in person have not.

Small sample of 8, but still.

[microbet]

That was pretty much the goofy/NBZ question, no?

[MrWookie]

lol me, guess I just missed it or something. I’ll delete.

[Churchill]

@Danspartan

This is essentially “my” (OFS) containment thread…

The Raid (on Rebekah Jones's home)

Regarding transmission in children, I might be ponied here as this is a few weeks old, but the gold standard now is an Iceland study, in fact check out National Geographic’s headline: The study found that children (defined by them as 15 and younger) transmit the virus half as effectively as adults. The study was very well controlled: The best way to understand how transmission might occur between children and adults would be to constantly monitor healthy families with school-age children to…

@spidercrab

From my looking around, I don’t see that evidence. I see things like:

• A CDC report that shows no association between a positive COVID tests and attending in-person school or child care. This is in contrast to social gatherings or at-home visitors, which were associated with positive COVID tests.
• A large-scale study of COVID transmission in child-care programs (in the journal Pediatrics ). . This study “found no evidence of child care being a significant contributor to COVID-19 transmission to adults. This finding is consistent with previous studies showing a lack of association between school closures and transmission rates.” [It doesn’t look at transmission from adults to children or children to children, and cautions that the level of background transmission may be a threat to child care.]

[Pauwl]

I think at first it will be uncomfortable just due to programming over such a long time with regards to wearing a mask. I’ll probably panic at random times when I realize nobody is wearing a mask. But, I think returning to life in general is going to feel weird after everyone is vaccinated.

[MrWookie]

Interesting results. I wouldn’t mind getting a bit more granularity.

Would you host elderly relatives in your home without masks when they but not you or your family have been vaccinated?

• Yes
• No, I am worried they could still give it to me and my family
• No, I’m still worried they could be in the 5% and get it from us.
• No, I care for or otherwise have high risk people in my household, but if not for that, I’d be a yes.
• I voted no above thinking that “indoor activity” meant out on the town, not just in my own home. They could come to my home.
• No, but for some other reason

[superuberbob]

Apparently students are expendable.

[amead]

Yep, and the whole thing is just plain silly. Everyone with a lick of common sense knows that of course kids are coming down with COVID from in person schooling.

The only real debate is whether it is justifiable to expose children (and their teachers) to that risk in light of the many benefits.

I get the desire from parents and schools and politicians to WANT kids not to be getting the rona in schools. Parents never want to willfully expose their children to harm, and this is a scenario where some feel they must. Hence the dissonance imo.

[ChrisV]

@JohnnyTruant

And of course, the standard lack of evidence being selectively applied to conclusions is just suspect. At least they mention their gaps in contact tracing and testing, but as we have always known, kids will be less likely to show symptoms and therefore less likely to be tested and therefore the known case sample is not valuable enough to base such strong conclusions on. It wouldn’t be hard to fix with widespread testing of large random samples if not all students to actually get the information, but there is more incentive to keep that murky than clarify it by the Backtobuisiness task force it seems.

The doctor who ran the study said this:

I would put a little asterisk by that and say that yes, there is a possibility that there’s an asymptomatic student who has given it to a teacher and we don’t really know, because I don’t know the source of infection in every case. But there’s no evidence of that. In most cases, the infection could be traced to a family member or a friend where they had spent time together outside of school. In some cases, sports activities, carpooling, and social gatherings were identified as the sources of infection.

Given that for known infections, they were acquired outside of school at a much higher clip than within school, why would it be any different for undetected infections? Presumably contact tracing involved testing kids who were in class with infected people (the article mentions setting up in-school saliva testing) whereas kids who have contact with infected people outside school aren’t always informed or tested. So if anything, we’d expect infections acquired at school to be detected more frequently, in percentage terms, than those acquired outside.

[NotBruceZ]

Possibly COVID-related:

https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1353435071861071873

[Danspartan]

OFS articles are like Bill Clinton bimbo eruptions. Emily Oster quality research based on church schools in south Carolina or whatever red state ain’t gonna cut it.

[Danspartan]

Oh and there is a huge difference between trolling trolls that don’t even know they are being trolled and trolls and trolling out of lack of self awareness and knowledge.

[whosnext]

Correct. If the ambient infection rate is “high” (Phase One) then it is beyond stupid to consider opening schools. Only when the ambient infection rate is “low” (Phase Two) is it time to consider opening schools.

So “studies” purporting to show how safe schools can be made with stringent precautions and mitigation factors only become germane when we reach the second phase. And I like most people hope that we can re-open schools (when the time comes) with a minimum of precautions/mitigation.