COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/amp/California-calls-for-pause-in-use-of-huge-batch-15878735.php

ā€œEven if we have a lot of the population vaccinated, we donā€™t know whether that will prevent transmission of the virus,ā€ he said, adding that he believed quarantine requirements for travellers would continue ā€œfor some timeā€.

My son has become obsessed with a video a friendā€™s daughter made. Itā€™s a fairly decent, but very innocent and perky song she wrote all about how in 2021 COVID and lockdowns will be over with, and everyone will be happy out celebrating together. Given that increasingly seems incredibly unlikely itā€™s just bloody depressing to have to listen it over and over.

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This is going to happen whether the pandemic is properly dealt with or not. Governments are just going to cave to YOLO consumer demands and try to get as many people vaccinated as they can as quickly as possible.

Yeah just add a line of remembrance to 3 million dead in the US and song will still be accurate even if we totally botch the roll out. Social endings to pandemics not unusual.

I had to go inside a Rite Aid in LA yesterday, my kidā€™s doctor sent a prescription to the wrong place (our Walgreenā€™s has a drive through). There were like ten people in line at the pharmacy, and a ton of people just walking around shopping. Iā€™m strictly avoiding being around anybody but my family right now so it was honestly pretty nerve-wracking. Was wearing a tight N95 and sanitized the shit out of myself after leaving, but still.

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Eliot missed the mark a bit, especially this year. January is the cruelest month. I think things will be feeling considerably better by April, and by summer that song will be pretty true.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1351210605731045379?s=21

Evolution/ natural selection is a bitch.

Thanks, Darwin.

Had to be a substantial advantage to dominate so quickly.

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FUCK. Moms was set to get Moderna hopefully next week via sister, hope that isnā€™t part of this batch

And thereā€™s another mutation. This time in Germany.

Relative to previous viruses, does covid mutate faster than others?

After 2021 laughing at us thinking itll be a better year i feel like one of these mutations is going to fuck us.

Maybe. It feels to me like the Mutation Warning news stories are basically just a template now to generate lots of clicks.

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Much slower.

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I think the main issue is that itā€™s getting so much opportunity to mutate. But in general

Influenza>covid>DNA viruses like Polio.

The sheer number of infections means more mutants are arising AND there is significant opportunity for those to outcompete other variants (including the parent) AND we are applying selective pressure by making a harder to transmit (physical distancing, hand washing, and masks) and we are doing a shitty job of it, so something that sheds at a bit higher rate ORbneeds a little less virus to infect OR survives on air or on surfaces a little longer OR spreads better in a different demographicā€¦

It is very analogous to everyone half assing their antibiotics for bacterial strains.

Even the virus has no thoughts, it is far smarter than Homo sapiens

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How old are your girls? My 8 year old daughter has always vacillated on who her favorite parent is.

Just remember that no matter how bad 2021 ends up 2020 being over is a good thing. Even if what happens next sucks more that shit being over can only ever be a good thing.

330k doses affected in this pause.

All iā€™m seeing is that there was ā€œfewer than 10ā€ adverse reactions at one site, namely Petco Park, including at least one hospitalization.

Just saw on local news that other counties that have started administering from this batch (namely, El Dorado, Yolo, Stanislaus, Placer) have reported zero adverse reactions, yet these counties are slowing or cancelling county vaccination clinics because of this. That seems like a bad public health overreaction, hopefully they can investigate and restart as soon as possible.

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Given how rushed this process has been, I think pausing is reasonable if this incident would have paused a clinical trial.