Two (2) weeks? Months, maybe. It takes at least 7 days for cases to start levelling off after most countries enter lockdown…
I posted it 11 days ago but if / when the new variant takes hold 2 weeks won’t touch the sides - not that it did in April - flattened the curve for some of the summer…but this is winter and it’s changed…
Wichita’s bet on shaky ground…
50% of the 80yr+ population of UK now vaccinated - well, first dose anyway ;)
I’m not trying to stop it cold. The harder the lockdown the shorter. Remember a lot of that drop is lag. The real drop in transmission started a week plus earlier. I’m just buying time for the vaccinations of the vulnerable AND trying to do something that with the proper notice and messaging we can get “most” to by into.
Remember everything we observed is significantly behind real time.
If we tell people six weeks it ain’t gonna happen period.
Can you point to any country that turned it around with only a two week lockdown?
I guess I’m not writing in English.
Make a dent and use that time to vaccinate.
No one has tried two weeks because we have to wait to see the drop which takes longer.
I’m suggesting something different than what’s done before. It is similar to something I’ve done in a fermentation plant.
The US is huge. Instead of locking down the entire country and trying to vaccinate nationwide at the same time, what about locking down one state (actually, I’d start in multiple states), vaccinating everyone there, and establishing a cordon sanitaire around that state with strict quarantine requirements to travel into that state? Once done, pick a neighboring state, extend the quarantine zone, and do mass vaccinations there. Use the military and the National Guard to set up a mobile vaccination operation that moves from state to state.
I expect there are people who will flee the quarantine zone to avoid lockdowns. Let people go out if they want, but track them hard when they try to reenter the zone.
The politics of which states get to go first would be interesting. I’d be inclined to give the option first to states that were the most responsible in having things like mask mandates. I don’t think I’d want California first because I’d like to get the procedure down better in smaller states before tackling a huge city like LA. I’d start with Washington and Maine, maybe a midwestern state out of Minnesota/Wisconsin/Michigan. I don’t really want to reward Florida with an early start, but it makes geographic sense.
That’s practically what would happen. States with real leadership and the red states.
Certainly if you opt in you get more doses sooner.
This graph shows a Christmas dent, a New Year dent and an inauguration dent IMO (any dent is a slow reporting period)
California cases are down but then so are tests - hospitalisations have peaked but CA only scores a B+ as they don’t publish hospital capacity - it’s possible they’ve peaked cause they’re full?
Yes.
Which bet?
I guess I have the wrong poster but thought someone had Germany vs USA in the vaccine race (early days in vaccine race)
I said i would bet it 3 or 6 months from approval. I still would. Uk/Us are ahead because they approved it first.
The other thing to consider that “immunity” is not necessarily the most important goal. If receiving the vaccine still leaves you susceptible to getting COVID but makes it so you are less likely to die from COVID, I think that’s a good result.
Something like this was observed in the AZ trial. The reported an effectiveness of something in the 60ish percentage range, but if you looked at the ones who got COVID none got sick enough to even go to the hospital. And I don’t think that any had the long term adverse effects that some get (not as sure about this part).
Obviously immunity would be better, because it’s better to not be sick at all, and you’re much more likely to spread it to others if you actually get sick.
One thing I’m going to be looking very closely for is cases of people who are immunized, get COVID, and then die. If we don’t see any of those types of cases, that’s a massive win. If there are a lot, then we’re in for some serious misery.
0 voters
$200 says Germany won’t beat UK, 3 months from each country’s approval date (dose per capita).
I’ll take US vs Germany 3 months from approval date. That was my original offer. Uk will beat US.
The other 6 voters as of right now are doing it wrong.
Gf (therapist, considered essential) got dose #1 of Pfizer yesterday at a hospital in VA. She was in and out in 15 minutes, including the 10 minute observation period. Said it was super efficient and well-run. They wouldn’t let me in with her, so no chance of getting a spare dose (I doubt they would have had any, they were processing ~thousands of people per day and definitely had their shit together).
It’s somewhat encouraging to see an instance of vaccine rollout being run so well.
Yeah, I’d be a lot happier with a dull ache in the arm, but hopefully it’s just your resilience to this at play. Or, worst case, you get the real deal later on but sooner than most of us. Glad you decided to participate in the study.
Is the placebo in these studies just saline or is it some other vaccine? I thought I read somewhere that sometimes in these types of studies they are just using a generic other vaccine as the placebo to simulate the effects of getting a vaccine (pain in the arm, mild symptoms, etc.).
