COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

This is bananas. What a country we live in.

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Mehā€¦ people really overestimate the science training that nurses get. They have a lot of practical knowledge, people skills, etcā€¦ but actual scientific understanding of how things work and etc? They have very little of that.

You can make a lot of progress if you take the time to fully spell things out for nurses though.

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Maybe. However, if your thesis relies on ā€œUS media are more responsibleā€, then I think it should give you at least a little pause.

How is this known? It seems to be a bunch of speculation, not actual reports.

You donā€™t need a lot of special scientific training for this though, itā€™s pretty basic shit. Somehow weā€™ve managed to get ordinary people inoculated from all kinds of horrifying diseases in the past but now in 20-dickety-20 people who work with the elderly donā€™t even get flu shots.

I think if theyā€™ve already had COVID themselves, that changes the decision making process on getting the vaccine substantially.

Thatā€™s very different from someone who hasnā€™t had it and doesnā€™t want it.

Edit: Ok, disregard. I should have read whole thread first. However, the way you wrote this first post really does make it sound like they had COVID themselves.

Counter to counter point. Wearing a mask is annoying AF. If I could (hypothetically) receive two injections that would give me the equivalent of mask protection, Iā€™d absolutely take the needles, appointment and 5G chip.

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Every place where it is supposedly ā€œmandatoryā€ has some mechanism for medical or religious exemptions. Former is understandable. Latter much less so.

I know several youngish people (20s) who are just lazy on mask wearing and would go to a bar/restaurant, but have no problem getting a vaccine when their time comes.

There are very, very few people who have bona fide religious objections to vaccination. Antivaxxers are generally just selfishā€“they believe (wrongly) that thereā€™s a significant danger to being vaccinated, and they know that they can benefit from herd immunity without getting vaccinated, so why take the chance?

Itā€™s a little baffling in COVID specifically since thereā€™s no herd immunity and itā€™s a really dangerous virus, but team humanity sucks and will always find a way to lose.

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Manuas + Japanese intial investigations + UK initial investigations = report worth doing but results not out yet - if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck we can await the report but itā€™s probably still gonna be a duck.

What sort of actual report are you after other than the reports up thread stating Brazil variant 2.0 is real, it dominates and it is reinfecting? The CDC report might be along in a months time but it will be old news by then

Yeah, I agree with that. I think that the o/u on people who actually going to get it (both shots) in 2021 is about 50%. And the o/u on people who are willing to get it may be about 60%. The difference is because I think there are a good number of people that donā€™t really have a problem with it, but they donā€™t value it enough to go through the inconvenience of getting one.

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Itā€™s not really known, but some minor reduction in efficacy does seem to be anticipated by some scientists. Eg: South African Covid variant may affect vaccine efficacy, warn scientists | Financial Times

That might be paywalled, it contains the following quote vis the SA variant:

ā€œAt this moment, we think that a vaccine could be a little less effective,ā€ Professor Tulio de Oliveira, of the University of KwaZulu-Natal, who is leading South Africaā€™s scientific effort to understand the 501Y.V2 strain, told the Financial Times. ā€œ[But] between all the varieties of vaccines that are coming to the market, we still have strong belief that some of them will be very effective."

The article also references this study (not yet peer reviewed) from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, which contains the following summary of what is known so far:

A multitude of recent studies have identified viral mutations that escape monoclonal antibodies targeting the SARS-CoV-2 spike (Baum et al., 2020; Greaney et al., 2020; Li et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2020b; Starr et al., 2020a; Weisblum et al., 2020). However, it remains unclear how mutations that escape specific monoclonal antibodies will affect the polyclonal antibody response elicited by infection or vaccination. Several recent studies have identified viral mutations that impact neutralization by polyclonal human sera. So far, these studies have relied on either selecting viral escape mutants with reduced neutralization sensitivity (Andreano et al., 2020; Weisblum et al., 2020), or characterizing the antigenic effects of specific mutations such as those observed in circulating viral isolates (Kemp et al.,2020b; Li et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2020b; Thomson et al., 2020). This work has shown that single mutations to the spikeā€™s receptor-binding domain (RBD) or N-terminal domain (NTD) can appreciably reduce viral neutralization by polyclonal sera, sometimes by as much as 10-fold. However, a limitation of these studies is that they characterize an incomplete subset of all possible mutations, and thus do not completely describe the effects of viral mutations on recognition by polyclonal serum antibodies.

Their own work was on how mutations might affect polyclonal antibodies in convalescent serum. Their conclusion was this:

Binding by polyclonal serum antibodies is affected by mutations in three main epitopes in the RBD, but there is substantial variation in the impact of mutations both among individuals and within the same individual over time. Despite this inter- and intra-person heterogeneity, the mutations that most reduce antibody binding usually occur at just a few sites in the RBDā€™s receptor binding motif. The most important site is E484, where neutralization by some sera is reduced 10-fold by several mutations, including one in emerging viral lineages in South Africa and Brazil. Going forward, these serum escape maps can inform surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 evolution.

This is why I think most will. People are selfish and lazy. Not getting vaccinated for measles is like an abstract thing. Youā€™re almost certainly still not going to get measles even if you donā€™t get vaccinated.

I donā€™t think this logic is going to change many minds.

What might is not being allowed to do things without proof of a vaccine.

Like owning a gun / arsenal?

Spain is taking a list of residents refusing the vaccine - may limit public transport / services etc to those vaccinated only

Are there a bunch of actual cases of specific people who tested positive for OG COVID back in the summer and are not testing positive for the new variant?

If you donā€™t want a filthy disease vector ringing your doorbell:

Hang on, I know the whole world hates Rand Paul, but is this not more or less accurate?

If youā€™ve had corona and fully recovered, or had the vaccine and given it enough time to fully train your immune system, is it not true that in all likelihood the only real reason to keep wearing your mask is optics? The twitter thread is making out like heā€™s proposing eating babies alive.

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We donā€™t yet know if the vaccine stops people from being carriers and transmitting the disease. We only know that it is effective at preventing the illness caused by coronavirus. It probably stops transmission, but we donā€™ tknow. People should still wear masks, even once vaccinated.

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