California has peaked. Case numbers are fuzzy obviously, but hospitalizations have clearly peaked. Deaths will rise until late Jan or so
Pretty sure for Moderna and Pfizer itās
95% never tested positive (vs control group)
5% tested positive
0% had serious illness
During the length of the study and 0% had serious illness probably has a certainty down to 0.1% or less depending on the study size. (If 0 out of 10,000 tested then just claim 0/1,000 roughly for the math.
Given the uncertainty, I think the correct procedure is to continue to gather data and to make sure you are doing what it takes to ensure data collection on people getting vaccinated, even if it slows down the process a bit.
Wow Iām surprised to hear youāre going back. My school is optimistically hoping for in person classes in the fall.
Yup, first two weeks are remote, presumably to give students time for post-return quarantine and testing. Then I head back to the classroom for a hybrid class. Total of 26-28 students, with half of them attending on Monday (other half remotely attending) and the other half attending on Wednesday (with the in-person Monday group attending remotely).
Weāll see how it goes. I assume that Iāll also be getting tested regularly.
1 Like
You could put up a big plastic shield all around you
Iāve taught in a bunch of different classrooms over the last several years, and I canāt remember if Iāve taught in this particular one. But if itās similar to the ones Iāve taught in recently, the closest student is going to be at least 15 feet away from me.
Iām taking a tour of the classroom next week so that I can get familiar with the new technology theyāve installed for remote learning, so Iāll have a better idea then.
3 Likes
Suck it, Star Trek nerds:
https://twitter.com/nprpolitics/status/1350132248469794817?s=20
1 Like
Not quite. If we assume that the vaccinated and placebo populations in the trial are equal, then if N people in placebo showed symptoms and then tested positive, 0.05*N in the vaccinated population showed symptoms and then tested positive. The math isnāt too much harder for unequal populations, but for illustration of the idea, itās easiest to keep them equal.
1 Like
That what āvs controlā means.
Letās assume they are equal size groups 10,000 in each.
500 tested positive in the placebo group
25 tested positive in the vaccine group.
(500-475)/500=.95
Are we on the same page?
(My example on the serious cases was admittedly confusing).
2 Likes
Looks good. Your wording in your earlier post that I replied to made it sound like 5% of the whole vaccinated group tested positive, while 95% of the whole vaccinated group did not.
3 Likes
Terminology. Gets one every time.
Ok anyone know how common reinfection is with Covid? Last I saw there was only a couple documented cases in the US but I got a friend saying they know several people in LA who have gotten it twice in like a 4 month period.
Thatās super unlikely unless one of the cases was asymptomatic.
2 Likes
So, it turns out we weāre actually holding back vaccines in reserve, and states are going to get smaller allocations than they expected. Guess we might be running a large scale study on delaying 2nd dosesā¦
https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1350097480642424836?s=19
1 Like
The tennis player Tennys Sandgren was sick over Thanksgiving and tested positive then. He says he feels fine now but tested positive this week before getting on the flight to Australia for the open. They let him fly after the Australia Tennis People said that it was just asymptomatic shedding of virus, which can apparently last for months? And supposedly isnāt contagious. Who knows. Anyway, heās playing this weekend in Australia.
CDC says superCOVID to be the dominant strain by March:
Gotta define re-infection here. People can test positive for months on PCR.
So if someone catches covid, tests positive, recovers, and then catches the cold three months later he could test positive for covid if heās tested again?
100%
1 Like