The evidence that it’s hard is that so many people/countries are doing so badly at it. I think that’s really really good evidence and support.
The ten year timeline is a bit silly right? It’s been like 2 weeks so far. You don’t expect the pace to change?
If the govt said 20M by the end of the year and even hit 10M I’d feel a little more confident in future projections of the pace speeding up. All I see now are excuses and finger pointing that do not instill confidence.
Can’t we all just agree this is 90% Trump’s fault? It has to start with a stronger federal presence. The whole idea of distributing the vaccine then leaving states on their own seems deeply flawed.
Seems like to me you have identified a pretty large failure.
While I mostly agree with your argument that the rest of the world failing is a clear sign this is super hard, as has been pointed out many times US has had tons of doses and approvals for 6 weeks, almost everyone else has only had two weeks. Only other country that got theirs around the same time as us is the UK from my understanding, and their Gov isn’t really much better than ours in dealing with any of this, if at all.
So we will see if Germany etc is still struggling badly in a month or so.
It’s been almost two months since approval here. It’s been less than 2 weeks for the EU. You keep mis-stating this to try and use a direct comparison of vaccination rates to state your point. I’ve already offered to bet you Germany will more % vaccinated in some equal amount of time.
If anyone finds an article that gives reasons as to why the vaccination pace should pick up soon, please post. I’d love to be optimistic based on something other than hope.
You haven’t told them yet that the UK will sanction a mix n match approach to vaccination lol.
Which type did you have first?
Type A.
Nurse, do we have any Type A left?
No. Plenty of Type B though.
Fuck it, that’ll do.
April is no good. The u.s. is probably going to run into more people who don’t want the vaccine. Germany is probably going to do a somewhat better job. March 1st seems more than fair. I will take that for $200, but 200 for me is probably more than 500 for you.
According to the German health minister the initial slow roll-out is due to having to use mobile vaccination teams to go into retirement homes instead of having vaccination centers that can jab more people per day. If the US does something similar the pace should pick up eventually.
It needs to be the same amounts of time post-approval for an accurate comparison. Germany is weeks behind. I’ll take 90 days post approval if you want.
ETA- I am slightly wrong on my timeline. Germany is only 10 days behind.
I think its fair to assume we’ll get a boatload more leadership from the feds under Biden. He wants to take charge and succeed on this. So, I definitely expect the pace to pick up, although not necessarily on day one.
Is your assertion that the US is doing a mildly substandard job or a colossal clusterfuck, because you’re talking like the latter and betting like the former. You should snap take Germany will have a higher percentage of the population vaccinated by March first.
I’m saying using vaccination % as a metric when one country has been vaccinating for twice as long as the other doesn’t make much sense.
Your point is the US is doing fine because we are #4 or whatever and ignoring that factor.
I’ll give you March 1st USA and I’ll take March 11th Germany for $200 if you want.
If the Washington Generals have a lead at half-time can I get even money on the Globetrotters?
If we are betting on who can vaccinate people faster giving your side a 10-20% time advantage is an angle shot but you do you. Anyways I’m going to drop it I guess.
Come on. Same date. They have to pass us because we are doing it so wrong. I’m not asserting the US is the best.
I’m giving you Germany for goodness sake. Like that’s the country off the top that I’d be least likely to give.
You want a bet like you’re proposing, you take Italy or something.
At the current rate France will have its population vaccinated in the year 3855.
Isn’t that what like 5 people ITT have been saying to you?
It should be on % of doses available administered. That adjustment probably drops USA well down the list. Not sure if we can get that number easily whoever.
As for the “easy” derail
It would be easy to do better than so far.
It would be hard to do it great but it’s nowhere near impossible. they got millions of smallpox vaccines done in weeks in NYC back in the ‘40s.
We aren’t even trying. I have no clue what’s going on in Europe.
I’m doing some reading on this now.
Let’s use California as a model. Their first shipment was 327,000 vaccines. That seems to be allotted primarily to health care workers, of which there are 2.4 million in the state. None of those are expected to go to staff and residents of long-term care facilities, who are also supposed to be part of the first round of vaccinations.
They can’t really go on to the next phase in part because they apparently haven’t agreed on who is part of that phase. In general, after LTCFs and frontline medical staff, the general direction is to vaccinate the elderly and essential workers. They are quibbling over who is essential. Law enforcement? Agricultural workers? Several industries are lobbying for their workers to be considered essential (so they can go back to maximally exploiting them, I presume).
Cold storage does seem to be a bit of a problem.
Counties have been asked to provide the state with information about their vaccine distribution plans and their cold storage capacity.
“But all the plans are sketchy, and many of them say ‘we plan to plan’ because we don’t know what will be available,” Trochet said.
Also:
During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, the county set up temporary sites in various communities to rapidly vaccinate several people at once. But the Pfizer vaccine presents a logistical challenge the county hasn’t dealt with before because it must be kept extremely cold.
The county Department of Health Services — which operates four public hospitals and 27 clinics — recently bought eight subzero freezers that altogether can store more than 1 million doses.
So, right now, it seems like they are still ironing out details of who can administer the vaccine and where and issues of storage. Places need to buy special freezers if they want to use the Pfizer vaccine. As I noted before, other countries are waiting to figure this all out before they start giving people shots. The US has taken the strategy of trying to do a partial rollout while figuring this out on the fly. It will get better.
You also have to consider the lag in the supply chain. While x number of vaccine has been produced, they couldn’t give those all out this week if they tried. A lot of doses will still be at the factory awaiting shipment. There’s apparently some sort of limit to how many doses they can load on a plane to ship to a far-off state because keeping them sufficiently cold presents a safety issue. If