LA County is asking everyone to quarantine for 10 days at home if they travel outside the county.
The WSOP main event is happening right now? Wtf?
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Does he like… get paid out for 9th? Or is he legitimately disqualified?
He gets paid for 9th. This was all specified in the rules announced beforehand.
Unbelievable that the WSOP isn’t online this year. Like… It’s the one thing where we already have the infrastructure to do it seamlessly online and have had that infrastructure for 20 years.
No sympathy whatsoever for these people … pricks.
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They went with online with a live final table for TV.
If he’s reported then he’s reported I suppose. But given the most recent posting was him getting called an idiot by several people for something he was later shown to be correct about, then the timing of this feels off.
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Yeah I’m a bit puzzled by this. He had a really bad take on something a few months ago but apart from that he’s been posting mostly BBC/Sky articles and getting grief. Part of it I think is due to the BBC articles in particular being c’n’ps with no link - but that is because the BBC ones are mostly from their rolling news which means links don’t work so well. I read most stuff but could obviously have missed something important wrt this so please don’t hate on me too.
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Oh. I guess that makes more sense then. I withdraw my outrage.
I ended up down the social media hole to a couple prolific Covid deniers pages this morning somehow. In the midst of all of the insane misinformation they each recently made posts explaining cognitive dissonance and how the left refuses to be convinced by facts because of it. Posted completely unironically.
I don’t really have a point I guess other than I don’t see Covid ever ending here with these people spreading lies and all patting each other on the back for it. Like life will go on and I think for the vaccinated we will resume our normal lives at some point this next year but we are still going to have morons dying from Covid and/or getting serious health complications from it for years and years thanks to these morons.
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Maybe we should hold off on Medicare for All until enough COVID deniers die without us having to pay for them.
We’ve been getting attacked by the local gangster crew… Seems there paranoid wrt there boy getting it again… 3 drivers so far in the same place, call went out yesterday to stay away from the street but its where we all sit at times.
Fun times lol.
It’s in the papers here… If need more info.
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Fauci guesses indoor gatherings possible safely in Q4 ‘21 if we get high vaccine uptake. Given the large non vax movement in USA that you are talking about, a return to our normal lives this year may be too aggressive of a target.
We probably don’t get the uptake we need to get to herd immunity if it is 80 percent needed. We are still learning on the fly how long vaccination protection lasts, that complicates a full reopening, especially if uptake hovers at 50 percent. There are people who legitimately can’t get a vaccine, so reopening while they are at risk is a dicey moral and political question. Possibly a legal one when vaccine passports become involved (not sure this Supreme Court ends up going for vax requirements for domestic events, which will hinder return to normal for the vaccinated)
It would be easier if everyone was just confident in vaccines and this rollout went smoothly, but doesn’t seem like a likely path. I feel somewhat confident I will be able to see my non immune compromised family in person at some point in 2021 as most will get vaccinated. Feels better than it did six months ago that there is an other side, but societal luxuries like travelling freely/responsibly, full crowds at sporting events and restaurants, unrestricted in person school, and de masking seem more like 2022 or 2023 events to me.
Also share your worry that the new normal is going to mean like 30,000 domestic COVID deaths a year/six figures worldwide in the background. Wont shut down modern society, but depressing to think about and will continue to add stress to the healthcare system during the winter season
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Steven Millman mini update:
December 27th COVID Mini-Update: The Phantom Dip
I mentioned in the Dec 24th Update that there would be an expected dip in reported deaths (and cases) as a result of under-reporting during the holidays. You can see this dip clearly in the updated data attached.
To give you a sense of the under-reporting, the model I constructed to predict mortality from COVID estimated that 36,925 people would die in the two weeks ending on December 23rd. During that period, 36,751 died according to data from Johns Hopkins. That’s a variance of 174 deaths or about 0.5%. Pretty tight by any standard.
That same model predicted that 9,984 Americans would die over the next three days (12/24-26), and so far only 5,785 have been reported. There is virtually no chance that this is not the result of under-reporting from the holidays.
This means that we are about 4,000 deaths under-counted which will most likely start showing up in the data Tuesday or Wednesday based on previous reporting cycles. The model estimates just more than another 14,000 will die by the end of the year, and the “missing” deaths will add to that. The number of deaths over the next seven days is expected to be the highest of the pandemic even without this effect, but will look much worse as these under-reports are brought in.
Then the whole process will repeat itself for the New Years holiday (Friday).
Starting the first week in January, we should also see a nationally identifiable surge in cases due to holiday travel and get-togethers if that should occur as expected. If that’s what happens, regardless of the vaccine, the rate of increase in deaths will continue well into February. Let’s hope not, but the data will be available soon enough, so no reason to debate it.
As always, I’m not a medical professional. Just a professional statistician that’s going to self-medicate with a bourbon.
Happy 80th birthday, Dr. Fauci! You’re the Christmas baby we all need right now. Thanks for not retiring like any sensible person.
Just spitballing here, but what if we used the vast coercive power of the state to mandate vaccination and eliminate the disease?
americanchopperthatssocialism.jpg
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