[cough]
I was a thousand percent not serious. There was some breathy “will we run out of dry ice” stories when Pfizer first announced applying for approval.
Then I made up some statistics.
Wasn’t obvious?
dry ice is just cold air
1 Like
Dry ice has a great PR firm (didn’t Jerry Seinfeld do a bit on that once?).
This absolutely has to be a total count. Looking at the major counties across the country right now (population>1 million), average daily cases per 100,000 range from 25 to 111. Franklin County, Ohio (where I live) is one of the highest at a daily average of 84 cases/100,000. Fulton County Georgia is running at an average of 43 cases/100,000, which translates to a total 14-day count of 600 per 100,000.
All Forsyth High Schools went virtual starting this week until the New Year (7 days of school) due to high pozzes.
Other grades are open thru next Tuesday.
Am I crazy for seeing a possible peak cases here?
https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1339009078064865280/photo/1
1 Like
We hit an inflection point like two weeks ago, but who knows how Christmas will fuck things up.
1 Like
I suppose it’s possible that self modified behavior has contributed to it not continuing as bad as it was going. Im sure a good portion of people that did big thanksgiving groups were already just not doing things safely anyway.
The tiny dip at the end there is the typical low Sunday/Monday reporting, but looks like there’s some flattening out. Week over week is fairly flat the last few days. Will be interesting to see how it pans out until Christmas.
Looks like some states may have potentially peaked (ND, IA, IL, etc) but most are still growing pretty solidly.
North and South Dakota seem to have gone herd, right? They haven’t closed anything at all and cases are way down. Any other explanation for this graph?
Manaus kind of looked like it went herd, then had a bigger second wave. Seems like every region has a tipping point where things get so bad govt steps in and people naturally change their behavior for a while. Then they get complacent again after a few months. Pretty sure both ND and SD finally shut some things down and required masks.
If I had to guess I’d say ND and SD still have one more wave in them, barring vaccine - which hopefully will make a dent before that happens.
That’s a seven day average that would take that precise thing into account right?
North Dakota is still at a 7dma of cases around 700 which is what .1% of their population testing positive a day? Obviously it is trending in the right direction but that is terrible. With the lack of density there you have to really be fucking up to get pozzed so it probably isn’t difficult for people to pull back a bit.
6 Likes
I’ll say it again. Please don’t try and read every wiggle. We know that testing is at least somewhat limiting. When a trend gets a week long without any BS like a holiday then we can start trusting the trend.
And I am still fearful that as the less populous states peak and start to fall that places like NY CA TX IL FL GA can rapidly dominate the math.
You can’t stop me from hoping
1 Like
Based af
Probably a combination of changing behavior and partially going herd. You’d have different needed percentage immune to get to herd for different levels of social distancing. So when everyone’s on edge 50% might be enough to get the outbreak down but if everyone’s totally back to normal it might be 75% and you get another outbreak.
2 Likes
Sigh. That’s NOT herd immunity. That’s social distancing.
I guess if you want some formula of % carrying antibodies plus social distancing plus mask wearing leads little or significant transmission chains you can do that. But you CANNOT call the whole equation herd immunity.
Words have meanings. Just because your understanding doesn’t meet the actual definition doesn’t mean you get to redefine the term.
DUCY?
Could a small subset of people reach herd? Some group that doesn’t interact outside of their little club? I guess if we had the “everyone that tested positive in the last 3 weeks club”. But as soon as they mix it doesn’t exist.
Cows in a barn? Yup you can get herd immunity. People in the wild? Not likely without the intervention of vaccines.
Herd means the population as a whole for a given geography.
The first wave receding in an area seems to be mostly behavior. Government or fear enforced. So far there doesn’t seem to be any place that surged then receded but didn’t surge again as soon as the environment and behavior changed (more time inside together without masks). As soon as an area gets sloppy the virus comes back, hence by definition not herd immunity in any significant sense of the term.
3 Likes