Yup partial here immunity doesn’t stand up to exponential growth
1 Like
That’s obviously what I was saying. I guess you can huff and puff and say that’s not true herd immunity, which I never claimed it was. Who gives a shit?
More like it doesn’t stand up to all possible Rt. An immunity percentage that provides protection to a socially distancing population won’t prevent exponential growth when they increase the Rt by stopping social distancing. Or higher transmissibility due to cold weather, or whatever.
Hmmm. DeSantis headlines.
https://twitter.com/emergencyprep3/status/1339072146190917632?s=21
https://twitter.com/georgeshaeffer1/status/1339072452773744641?s=21
Any support for this idea from other states?
https://twitter.com/nicole_creston/status/1339073264098938881?s=21
What does per capita mean?
https://twitter.com/faire72667093/status/1339057681718530049?s=21
Yeah California is in shit shape and getting worse, hopefully the new guidelines help but they havent gone far enough. Plus, localities arent enforcing them
The math is exponential, which means that while it is possible to be in that exact spot, it’s a super small area to be in that no one is remotely close to
13% of North Dakotans have a positive test. How many more have been exposed and not tested? Probably at least that many. If the Rt is not much more than one that might be significant enough to drive it down below 1. Particularly because you’re going to have a split in the population – people who are out working and in the community, and others who are isolating.
Potato Potahto.
Apparently I would live 2 years less if I stopped drinking entirely lol
Seems that I’ll gain a couple years onto my life expectancy in a couple of years when it becomes 10+ years since I quit smoking.
1 Like
3 pump chump
Youyang Gu does some good work on estimating infections from positive tests over at covid19-projections.com. Nowadays we are roughly catching about 1 in 3 infections. He estimates North Dakota is at about 34% infected. (Because of lag in reported cases, he doesn’t have estimates for the last 14 days included yet). Could be 50%+ by the time significant vaccine rollout happens. Some nice buffer to hit herd even if significant portion of population is reluctant to get the vaccine.
4 Likes
Edmonton, Canada.
Got my test Mon at 1pm, had my results by Tues 1pm. Thankfully neg.
The brain scrape wasn’t what I’d call enjoyable, but it’s not nearly as bad as people make out.
8 Likes
The “corona port” is what you should call it.
Here’s a public health expert weighing in on mitigation measures:
2 Likes
She is without question potentially more dangerous than her father.
1 Like
Ya the throat one is easy but the nose one sucks. Apparently it’s more accurate though.
1 Like
Complete governmental incompetence.
5 Likes
I don’t think the actual manufacturing space you need to make the vaccines is all that large. Even if Pfizer makes half a trillion doses next year it will require a small fraction of its manufacturing capacity. Moderna is obviously different and it sounds like that’s exactly what they did, since they’ve never made anything ever.
1 Like
Would have gotten expensive. Wouldn’t just be 10 extra plants for the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, it would be 5 more for the each of the dozen other vaccines in production.