We will be at an all time 7dma for deaths at the end of today.
Crazy that that’s going to be with artificially low days in nov 29 & 30 still included. December 7th is going to look really bad for 7dma
It’s up up and away from here. For deaths to go down you need the cases to plateau and start dropping and then 3-4 weeks. If today was peak cases we still would see a 75%-100% increase in deaths by the end of the year which puts us in the 3500-4k 7dma range with some days in the 5-6k/day range by New Years. There is literally nothing we can do to reverse that now. It’s happening and may be even worse.
Current 7da is likely to be inflated because it’s picking up lagged records from the long holiday weekend. I think 7da will start being more interpretable in the middle of this coming week.
I may have goofed the math slightly but we need to increase by 180 roughly to get there. Which means a week over week increase of 1260. We had 1222 last week so I get just under 2500 today to get there. California and Texas alone should get us to 2200. There are some other states yet to go also. If we don’t break it we will be very very close
That’s possible I suppose. You don’t think deaths will be even higher next week than this week though? It seems pretty likely to me.
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I’d gladly bet our 7dma at the end of next Saturday is higher than it is going to be at the end of today.
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But the WHO have nothing to do with getting masks for the NHS, or Canada etc.
It was obvious when all of Asia was wearing masks while WHO was not saying they were necessary that they were not correct.
I know this pandemic has lasted what seems like 13 years, but I remember March/April! We talked itt about this stuff!
We had runs on toilet paper, sanitizer and hundreds of other products with much more supply than masks.
If I had to guess, I’d say that next week’s reported deaths will be about the same as this week’s reported deaths.
I mean, this is just me being stupidly nitty - I have no doubt that real deaths next week will be greater than real deaths this week on an apples-to-apples basis. I’m just certain that there were a big chunk of deaths reported this week that, absent the holiday weekend, would have been reported in the prior week.
Errr that’s what they do every day? I’m confused.
I assume he is implying that their definition of “stabilizing” has now become something that is not actually that stable.
More often than not those types of stories tend to be the result of someone not understanding how and ER works
Could be. I was just trying to translate.
I agree there is some of that going on. I just think it’s going to get outweighed by the general trend.
I’m not going to go back and find it, but someone made this point a week before thanksgiving.
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Yeah I need someone at Johns Hopkins or wherever to back this up. Interesting if true.
I wonder if they had 4 transmission chains and one of them got into locker room. I skimmed this article earlier and I didn’t see any actual science.
2nd or 3rd hand but I did hear a story about some type of more aggressive at home care. Some version of cpap and/or O2 wnrichment.
Totally unconfirmed.
So my mom is under quarantine. Shes a teaching aide for kindergartners and the teacher is pozzed. Teacher found out Thursday, their class is done until after the holiday now. My mom took a test yesterday. Should get results early next week. I told her she should probably consider getting another test if she gets a negative on Monday as false negs can show up if the test is taken within five days of exposure.
Pretty worried. Shes having a bit of shortness of breath, low fever, and sinus issues which seem to just be a precursor to loss of smell and taste. Shes in her mid 60s, overweight, with high blood pressure and major thyroid issues.
Its gonna be an even longer next couple of weeks.
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