What the fuck, New Zealand? You defeat COVID and then you let people in for fucking cricket? And they’re supposed to be the smart ones?
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Seeing my post quoted and given my general tendency to be aggressive with some folks, it looks like it could be interpreted as aggressive toward @CaffeineNeeded, just wanted to say that wasn’t the intent. I was genuinely asking.
I’ll check that link out later if/when my Turkey Day becomes too relaxing lol…
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Pretty similar to what I was saying a week or two ago about Thanksgiving. The scary/eery part is both of us said 1M new pozzes on the low end and both of us made no attempt at factoring in travel, Wednesday drinking, or Black Friday.
If we don’t go into a full nationwide lockdown by Sunday/Monday, this surge is going to be a tidal wave.
The hard part is we are on pace for 6 million pozzes between now and Xmas IF we plateau.
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I’ll have to take some pictures in a bit when it’s set up, because I don’t seem to have described it accurately and I really value your input on this.
It’s a one car garage, and the hitting mat will be near the back (by the door into the house), the screen we hit into will be 5-7 feet away from the mat, in the middle of the garage, and then there will be another 5-10 feet to the big garage door you drive through.
The screen will be hanging off the tracks for the garage door, with curtains coming up the sides to contain errant shots. So essentially the hitting area will be like a U shape facing into the garage, with paths for airflow around the sides.
My thought was a box fan or two blowing in on one side, out on the other, and across in the back. There will also be a space heater in the back.
Alternatively, I was considering having all the fans blowing out around head level, assuming the outdoor air would flow in naturally from lower given the current and the cooler air being lower.
That’s where I have no idea what it is best to be doing. I could also get some sort of filter to put in the back, assuming there’s a consumer air filtration thing I could get that’s like similar in size/use to a space heater.
Initially I wanted the hitting area at the other end, so the outdoor air would flow in right there. Unfortunately, with the garage door open there’s not enough clearance for that.
The friend who will be using this with me if it’s deemed safe is being pretty careful. I’d like to have my Dad over for it, too, but so far he’s being less careful.
You’ve had a lot of good posts about the pandemic, but your take about this aspect was top notch right from the jump and really stands out as good posting imo.
It’s helped me remind myself that easing precautions in one area out of necessity should have no bearing on other areas, despite the natural inclination.
Like I’m playing 12 hours a month of live poker with an N95 out of necessity, but I’m still doing Instacart and wiping stuff down. Our risk builds cumulatively, it’s not like X is necessary, so thus everything < X is fine took.
Something important for all of us to keep front of mind as shit hits the fan even worse.
Either that or I’ll be upwind, inform him of such and let him decide if he’s cool with it lol…
But this makes me think that maybe two separate currents that are basically flowing in at ground level and out at head level are better than one current that is in on one side of the garage, across the back, and out the other side.
How much do these cost?
One big difference with COVID is that many people are lackadaisical about flu shots because if you don’t get one it’s easy to imagine that you can keep living your life anyway and it’s not a big deal. By the time our COVID vaccine arrives people will be so desperate to be able to resume their normal lives that we should get much higher compliance. And then on an annual basis thereafter there will likely be more apathy but public messaging based around “Do you want to have 2020 again? Because that’s how you get 2020 again.” will probably be more effectively than flu shot messaging.
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Looks like decent ones are 100
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Right, that’s what I thought you meant. Some seem to think the half dose full dose might be more effective for scientific/medical reasons, which seemed odd to me but the argument presented made some sense.
Disclaimer: I’m not arguing for/against this, just presenting it to get your expert opinion.
Disclaimer 2: This may be slightly out of your realm, maybe more of an epidemiology type question, I don’t know… I assume your knowledge here is way better than mine as a layperson though.
The theory was that because this vaccine is a live virus vaccine (apparently it uses some mostly innocuous virus to carry some kind of marker for covid that teaches us to fight COVID), a higher initial dose may trigger such an immune response against the carrier virus that the second dose would be immediately killed off and thus useless for teaching us how to fight COVID.
As a result, the theory goes, you need a smaller dose first such that we don’t immediately kill off the second dose and thus enjoy benefits from both and not just the first.
Is this bunk? Reasonable? In between?
Here’s Steven’s reply to your question:
The total CFR is about 2.1% over the course of the entire pandemic, but it has been falling from a CFR that had peaked at over 7% to what is now about 0.9%, but climbing again. The CFR could indeed be higher by the time the Thanksgiving Gen1 infections start dying - that’s a fair point and very likely. I just don’t model out CFR so I go with the most recent values. See the image below.
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I believe his is a 7 day offset cfr?
It’s going to go up. He really needs to stretch that out a bit to offset the lag between case rise and death reporting. 21 or 28 seems good. Those get into the high 1s to 2%.
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We are going to zip things up now again as well, as best we can anyway. My daughter’s school system had to have an emergency board meeting to go back to fully remote (from hybrid) after a couple of the nutbags on the board actually tried to force a full return to on campus classes after Thanksgiving. (They are now fully remote to at least Jan. 15. I was going to pull her out completely if they actually tried to force full in class.)
Looks like my niece now also has it, no official test yet but cough and very tired. I hope my sister is listening to my advice that she needs to quarantine my niece to one room, and if they are careful (and a little lucky) they can avoid others in the house catching it. I think my nephew is quarantined in his apt where he and several roommates have all tested positive.
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Some are backfilling in possible reasons. You can’t do that. It’s an example of exactly what not to do in a clinical study.
The theory is possibly true, although it still sounds like horseshit to me. The point here is that you can’t study it this way. They introduced a massive source of uncertainty and error with this garbage.
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To those of you who make graphs and models etc, where do you get the raw data from?
I’m curious to look at some stuff myself (particularly the CFR estimates, but also other stuff that might occur to me), but I’m not sure where to find the numbers. covidtracking.com/data has a csv that looks ok, although the numbers don’t match perfectly with worldometers, which is where I tend to look.
This csv is nice in that it has a lot of additional info, like breakdown by state and number of tests and a bunch more, but ideally I would find some spreadsheet with the worldometers numbers. Even just the cases and deaths (and maybe positive test rate) countrywide would be good enough for the first things I want to look at.
Any insight? Are the covidtracking numbers better anyway, and I should be using those? Is that what Millman or Danspartan etc are using?
Why do some of those vaccines need to be stored at -70? How is -50 too warm?
I use covid tracking into excel.
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mRNA is very unstable.
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