I will save you the trouble:
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14 days is too late. Nevada is fucked with two weeks of unchecked growth heading into Thanksgiving
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Not at all, and yet I think I should.
Not sure what to do here. My 18 year old is being offered a job as a sushi chef. He had taken the semester off college in the hopes of getting a job and saving up to move out with friends and start college either next semester or fall 2021. This is the absolute worst time for him to do this, and yet I feel like telling someone with a history of depression that he can’t follow his dreams and jump at an opportunity he has really been working toward (has wanted to get into culinary for years) is possibly majorly stunting.
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The table I was using from Wikipedia is gone, so I’m not going to do the whole country by hand. What state?
California. I know things arent terribly right now but I’m curious how things are changing
7 day average will be approaching 250k (covid Tracking Project) by thanksgiving if 5% per day growth. 215k if 4%. A week ago we were about 4%, pushing toward 5% now. Will see if it sustains but the covid freight train seems to be picking up speed.
5% unabated until Xmas is a milly.
28 day cfr is 2% currently. Will probably go up with overwhelmed systems. But even at 2% that’s 5,000 deaths per day by Xmas and 20,000 day by the inauguration.
Hopefully we wake up and keep all that from happening. But the 250,000 cases per day and 5,000 deaths may be baked in already.
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I hearted it but fuck.
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My spreadsheet gives me…
California
R0 = 1.14
Hospital Capacity Estimate: 74 to 82%
Days to Overflow: 30 to 87
Disclaimers: I have not touched this spreadsheet since like late July or early August. I recall California testing better than other states and thus not being in as bad of shape as others in hospitality numbers, because they were identifying more cases and thus had lower hospitality rates than my spreadsheet was using.
California was in worse shape this summer than it is now, it appears, but it’s a big state and there may be quite a difference in weather in Northern California vs Southern right now. My guess is SoCal does pretty well this winter compared to the rest of the country, as indoor vs outdoor activities seem to make a huge difference.
Yeah this is bad, I was eyeballing 200K per day by Thanksgiving pre-election, we’re picking up speed and I didn’t account for the superspreading we likely did on Election Day and in subsequent celebrations.
I assume that doesn’t account for the super spreading of Election Day, celebrations, and Thanksgiving?
Getting worse ime.
I feel like a dynamic that is at play is that even those of us taking precautions and taking it seriously are less concerned with public policy than we were before. I think we partially feel like we lost the battle, and we partially have settled into our acceptable risk profiles and feel like we can mitigate it fairly well no matter how bad it gets by staying isolated, wearing masks, and focusing on outdoor activities.
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I think we are trending to 5% NOW. I expect testing to not keep.
My numbers are based on today’s basis of positivity so that I can keep the same cfr.
In reality the case counts will slow down or level based on testing limits but then the cfr will go up because positives/infections will go down.
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This.
The super strict response is going to be limiting maximum table size at Applebee’s to 6 and lower capacity by 25%.
The ship has sailed. We have surrendered. It is every man woman and child for themselves.
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I had an upper endoscopy done today. They tested me for covid before the procedure with a 15 minute turnaround. Is there a reason why this isn’t more widespread?
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That’s the spot test. False pos rate is on the order of 10-15%.
What’s the false neg rate? I think that’s more important, no?
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Someone here is more expert. Tired can’t remember who it is at the moment.
I think it’s time for me to go back to just home, work, grocery store for the next few weeks.
Have been in a pretty good groove of either seeing friends in parks or at outdoor bars, but feels like it’s only a matter of time til Chicago starts getting worse given every neighboring state right now.
I do have to go into the office but I get to work by myself at night and only overlap with other employees for like an hour each day in the morning, so my exposure risk is at least lower there.
1 Like