110k might happen. probably not, but it could. 105k is my worldometers prediction
In two days I have to fly from Florida back to Seattle. Then have to look for an apartment. Getting a little anxious. 
2 Likes
Can we excise the school stuff? Seems worthy of its own thread, and different enough from the general covid updates.
I suggest “School in the time of Covid”
3 Likes
This thread isn’t too busy and OFS and OFB seem on point?
2 Likes
Without OFB and OFS, we just all are sitting here rocking back and forth gibbering to ourselves as the world burns around us.
1 Like
And counting dead people.
1 Like
The 7dma is going to exceed 80,000 most likely after today. Multiply that times a CFR of 1.7 and we are looking at 1400 or so average dead a day in the next few weeks.
Obviously CFR could go up if people don’t handle the virus as well in the winter or we see widespread hospital overruns.
I don’t have it handy but what was the 7 day in early October? I’m thinking we may be back above 1.7– closer to 2.
Sounds more like bartscottcan’twait.jpg. Seattle seems like it has a way better handle on the COVID situation than anywhere in Florida. Do you mean that you’re anxious that you can’t GTFO of FL sooner?
That’s a pretty good point of perspective with regard to Florida vs. Seattle. I guess the downside to Seattle now is that it is getting close to the time of the year that it starts raining and doesn’t stop until April. Though I think it’s more anxiety about having to travel during the time when COVID is peaking, with some extra layered on since there is a move involved.
I feel like if you wear an n95 door to door, the air travel is probably not that high risk, but it will be uncomfortable AF. I’ve had to fly from Florida to Seattle before and that is one long flight, especially when going west. But I get it. I wouldn’t want to get on a plane right now either.
If going back to KC for Xmas was just flying, I’d risk it. But I know I’ll be miserable the entire time worrying about my family acting like they can’t possibly catch covid from each other because they’re all in a big very permeable bubble.
1 Like
I’m seeing 99 and change.
Give it a couple minutes, I have to go eat dinner.
Looks like Nebraska will put us over.
It’s official.
11 Likes
USA! USA! USA!
We just crossed 100K cases in a day and I’m standing on my deck listening to a high school football game half a mile away - I can hear the crowd and the band.
I had to go into two casinos yesterday to cash in chips, there were a normal amount of people in there for a weekday afternoon. Poker is back in Philadelphia, they had 6-7 tables going.
I drove past a restaurant the other day. Not only were they about a third full inside, they had two dining rooms closed and everyone packed into one that was easiest to see from the road.
Without intervention it feels like 200K or bust by about Thanksgiving, 400K or bust by mid-December.
I assume we’ll intervene somewhat, but does anyone feel like most of society realizes what’s coming?
Like if everything shut down 11/10, I think 80-90% of society would be stunned and annoyed.
1 Like