lakers didn’t get one, dodgers won’t either
Maybe no parade but there should be people in the streets tonight
This. I i did the math on this and you can have an average of 300+ case a day for 120 days and only infect about 10% of the population, So we can go way higher and of course it wont be just a plateau of 300,000 cases it will be a big curve. So at 300,000 number we could see days at over 600,000. But we will not have the testing capacity to measure it so we wont even know.
What we will know is that our healthcare systems will be completely overwhelmed and basic care for other non covid life threating emergencies will be scarce.
We are almost a lock to hit 1,000,000+ cases a day in the peak of it. Maybe right around Christmas or New years.
Take care of yourself this winter. If you have any special medical needs make a plan now as to how you can get that care if needed, or if you are unable. If you have any friends or family that may need access to specialty or emergency medical care help them make a plan. Inform them, pray for them.
I was not sure just how bad this was going to be until this week but i have high confidence its going to be really bad. Nothing short of an air tight lock down, much stricter then the one last spring, is going to get this under control probably until early spring.
Prepare to be locked down.
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I think we should look at graphs like that and ask ourselves what they are measuring, Are they measuring the actual level of infection or are they just showing us the testing capacity?
Not that the two are not related but take the middle east for example where its very likely that the number of test per 100,000 people is way less then the in Europe. Unfortunately that is also true for the US.
We might see what looks like a leveling off in growth of new cases in the US soon but what is really happing is we just bumped up against the top of our testing capacity.
That’s win-win for the virus all in one shot. Evolution is pretty amazing sometimes. Most of the time, actually.
As I understand it, the spike protein is highly conserved, it’s not going to change that unless it’s really helpful.
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No, no, its alright. Ya see, they’re just gonna explain to the virus that they “won a world series*” and it will just leave them alone.
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Tucker got pozzed yesterday, tested positive again today, was told by MLB he can’t play, and did it anyway. WTF.
This seems really odd. Like based on what we know about how it spreads, you would think anybody sharing the air in a household would be screwed.
Would it be reasonable to theorize that regular conversations don’t aerosolize the virus for most people? Thus the spread is droplets for most people and the risk of spread is similar to a common cold with droplets, and what’s really driving enhanced likelihood of spread is yelling/singing/etc?
Like if that hypothesis is true, the biggest danger of bars is loud music making people huddle together and shout.
I guess another possible explanation is that most spread is once people are symptomatic? But don’t we already know that’s not true?
Don’t follow baseball, saw Tucker and thought Carlson had gotten pozzed and got light headed when all the blood rushed to my penis.
What a let down.
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Comes back out and takes off his mask. Unreal.
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Why didn’t any of the steroid guys try this LOLFUCKYOU defense?
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Definitely looks like a deplorable.
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If it spread as easily as you think, there would be no such things as super-spreader events because all gatherings would be super-spreader events.
Having unprotected sex with someone who has HIV is not an automatic sentence to get it yourself. That doesn’t mean you should start rawdogging prostitutes or have maskless parties, but the fact that people can interact unsafely and not automatically get it is one of the reasons why people think it is OK to open for business. They are stuck in a binary mode of thinking where either it is 100% safe or 100% unsafe and when they have anecdotal evidence that they acted normally and didn’t get COVID, then they think it is 100% safe.
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Yeah that’s a good way of putting it. But I thought spending like 10 hours a day in the same house sharing air would be way higher than those numbers, with your point still applying to briefer interactions.
Think of covid droplets as having a half-life. You and I aren’t scientists, unlike some people in this thread. We’re using analogies to try and understand the science the way that poker theorists use toy games to understand actual poker.
Here are some other things you can integrate into your mental model of what is going on:
Genetic material from the virus has also been detected in air samples from poorly ventilated rooms, such as hospital toilets – and one recent study identified live infectious virus in air samples. Prof Jonathan Reid at the University of Bristol, who is leading the new research said: “We know that when bacteria or viruses become airborne in respiratory droplets they very quickly dry down and can lose viability, so that’s an important step to understand when assessing the role of airborne transmission in Covid-19.”
For decades, scientists have used sealed vessels called Goldberg drums to investigate how long viruses can survive in aerosol droplets. The virus is sprayed into the drum, which rotates to keep the droplets airborne, and samples are removed at regular intervals and tested for live virus. Using this method, US researchers have estimated that Sars-CoV-2 has an aerosol half-life of 1.1-1.2 hours – meaning half the particles drop out of the air after this time – and infectious virus could still be detected after three hours, when the experiment was ended.
Until now, the team has been practising levitating aerosols containing a mouse coronavirus, which is harmless to humans. Here, they have seen a large drop in infectivity within the first 10 minutes of the virus being suspended. “We’ve also seen that at 10C, this mouse virus survives a lot longer than at warmer temperatures,” Haddrell says.
On Monday they will begin levitating live Sars-CoV-2 for the first time, meaning they could have initial results by the end of the week. These will be made available to policymakers and submitted for peer review in scientific journals, Reid said.
“I think the science is fine, and will show the principle that you can modify the environment to reduce the survivability of the virus. But the applicability might be tricky, depending on the environmental factors they identify,” warned Dr Julian Tang, a consultant virologist at Leicester Royal Infirmary. “You’re not going to sit in a theatre or cinema if the temperature is 35C and the humidity is 80%.”
It’s been suggested that initial viral load has some effect on how severe a case of COVID is. It’s not a far step to guess that initial viral load also has some bearing on whether you actually get infected. The viral load seems like it would be the highest when respiratory droplets have been immediately expelled. This decreases over time, I assume fitting some sort of exponential decay curve.
If spending 10 hours a day in the same house is a problem, then quarantining someone to their room wouldn’t protect people living in the same house. Spending 10 hours a day in the same room is a problem, which is why spouses are more likely to infect each other than unrelated roommates not sleeping together.
Overall, there’s a continuum of behaviors and practices from less safe to more safe with nothing being 100% safe or unsafe on a personal level (but we can use statistics and probability to say that things will result in more or fewer cases in a large enough population).
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I think some people are just way bigger spreaders than others so depends on which type of spreader you live with.
Could even depend where in their body the virus is mostly taking hold.
That would explain why lockdowns work and countries have been able to eradicate it. Those people can only spread it to 1-3 others who then don’t spread it to anyone else.
It’s going to eventually be known that simply not having crowds, no maskless interactions (so no restaurants and bars), and a few other changes could allow society to function mostly normally.
We literally killed 100s of thousands of people for free tea refills and cult rallies and bar gatherings.
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It’s this. This has been suspected for a long time and we keep getting more data confirming it. For example:
Scientists in the US teamed up with public health officials in the southeast Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh to track the infection pathways and mortality rate across over half a million people, just under 85,000 of whom had confirmed cases of Covid-19. Reported in the journal Science, they found that 71 percent of infected individuals did not infect anyone, instead just 8 percent of infected individuals were behind up to 60 percent of new infections.
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Do we know if this is due to the way the disease works, or due to that some people are morons and don’t quarantine when sick?
We don’t know. It’s probably, stop me if you’ve heard this one before, a combination of factors.