It’s going to be awesome when my kids’ middle school starts back with the in-person option next week and 70% of the students are back (mine won’t be among them).
2 Likes
Our Board of Education just voted this week to move from 50% in person to 100% in person, starting in 3 weeks.
It’s just astonishing.
Cases spiking to unprecedented levels?
Fuck it, let’s throw the largest disease vectors in our community all into the same room for 7 hours a day and then unleash them back into the community.
No fucking way anything can go wrong with that plan
3 Likes
Kamala cancelling travel plans because folks in her campaign pozzed.
Seriously, this open for school insanity is probably crazier overall than the OFB nutjobs. It makes me question ever sending my kid back to school since it’s obvious that these administrators have never had kids, or been near kids, or possibly ever seen a child in their lives.
Kids spread disease, plain and simple, and we are in the middle of a highly contagious worldwide pandemic. How fucking stupid can we be?
2 Likes
Gee I wonder when that could have happened.
1 Like
At this point I am wondering how bad this is really going to get. Even prior to this recent uptick hospital staffs are stretched thin all over the place. My wife has been stalking travel nursing jobs and there are 90-100/hr jobs popping up everywhere over the past couple of weeks.
That is one thing that makes the current situation so alarming. It won’t just be a few states getting hammered, literally almost every state outside of the previously hardest hit are setting records and facing a hospital crunch. Add in OPEN FOR SCHOOL, another 3 weeks of Trump superspreader events, holidays coming up, probably full attendance sporting events shortly and winter illnesses/immune system effects and I don’t really see how the worst isn’t yet to come.
The national numbers aren’t looking so good. The hospitalization curve is probably the most troubling.
2 Likes
I am convinced that a fundamental problem is the way that the data is presented. Here in Ohio, the state provides a dashboard. Here’s what you see on that dashboard:
So if you look at the most recent period on the right side of that graph, it looks like things are improving - cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are all declining! But that’s entirely due to the reporting lag. As I’ve said before, using report-date estimates is less accurate than using after-the-fact incident-date data, but report date estimates (orange line) correlate very well with that incident date data (blue line):
More importantly, report-date data can be used to make timely decisions, and to recognize trends quickly. So right now, people in Ohio are looking at something akin to the blue line and saying “Derp, things are improving”. In reality, the orange line is a better leading indicator and it shows that things are going to shit.
Same thing is true for hospitalizations:
The only place it isn’t showing up yet is in deaths, which would be very good if true.
I feel like making “Not great, Bob” my permanent signature.
7 Likes
October 7th you say
Small caveat here in that I don’t think temperature will matter as much as people huddling indoors. I’m just thankful for having UP as a resource and getting ready to raise my alarmism up a bit and preparedness.
Just reminding folks. ISO alcohol is available in bulk online right now and this is an indispensable resource. You can make sanitizer, wipes, and it has a shelf life of 2+ years. Just check the reviews as Scamazon had a few brands in stock that sounded bunk when reading reviews.
I already bought a gallon of 409. 40 K-n95s. Getting ready to stock up on however many of the reskopare n-95s I can afford.
1 Like
my brother has to quarantine. His co-producer on a documentary about the Failed dam flooding in Michigan contacted him. That guys brother tested positive and they share a house.
Brother is 60. We got lucky because he was supposed to drive my Dad somewhere this weekend. Dad is 91. Thought would be disaster.
I suggested that since his possible exposure was Wednesday that he should wait until next week to get tested unless he develops symptoms.
Maybe he should just show up at the hospital and demand free Remdesivir and mAbs.
3 Likes
Imagine handling an outbreak in your staff like a responsible adult.
1 Like
Wow, not good on the 7 day slope or 14 day case sum front.
Almost all the states have positive slopes.
As far as 14 day sum, the NYS spring outbreak topped out at 6 per 1,000
ND, SD are both >8, ND almost 9! MT is 6.5 and WI is 6.1.
UT is 5,0, ID 4.4 and NE 4.2
=3 are AK, AR, IA, KS, KY, MO, OK, TN, WY
So basically everywhere with rural areas getting hit now.
And some of the highest states are still going up strongly. To my knowledge, all are loosening are already OFS.
Since the national hospital numbers started going up a few days ago, we can expect the deaths to start trending up soon.
Nothing to like in this update. Nothing. We are just stupid. Saw another of those tiny mouth shield things at the airport today. I didnt wait around to see if they were permitted inside security with that setup or not.
1 Like
The thing that is really crazy to me is this wave is not being led by the highest population centers, as you mention, but the opposite. You add on a new wave in NYC or California/Texas/Florida and this whole thing gets out of control fast.
How can this be? I thought the governor of South Dakota was a genius because she didn’t do any shutdowns and just let the citizens decide on how to deal with the virus.
I think the argument I still see on social media is that deaths in SD aren’t very high…
…
…
…
…yet.
I don’t see how winter doesn’t end up mattering a ton. Indoor exposure for a prolonged period seems to be the critical scenario to avoid, and we’re going to see WAY more of that as it gets colder and people can’t socialize outside.
I haven’t looked closely at the data but the hot spots on the map right now seem clustered in northern states. Might be noise, but might also be because it’s already pretty cold up there?
2 Likes
You are the one with issues. Get honest with yourself. Get some help.
He’s not saying you have “issues”, he’s saying you’re an asshole.
15 Likes