Seems like an insane policy if you are me. But me is also just a moron on the internet.
1 Like
why are you going into grocery stores?
Because the risk is tolerable.
Those planes are FUCKING HUGE
10 Likes
Just do curbside pickup, imo. At this point, you can buy 95% of the stuff inside online with no risk.
https://twitter.com/georebekah/status/1330704812380401664?s=21
Here is some more. The hard thing is getting true apples to apples and determining what’s leading and what’s trailing (your point)
As we discussed a couple of weeks ago, the less likely scenario is that schools don’t magically significantly contribute to spread.
I assume that there will be a lot of co-variance in that states/localities that follow guidelines poorly will follow them poorly in face to face schooling.
Having school when there is high community incidence is insane. The majority of US states have a known infected population of over 0.5% which means the real number is on the order of 2%. Very roughly a school of 500 people has 10 contagions running around. And it’s 4-5x worse in many states.
How good is the mask wearing? How long is the exposure (dose*time). These aren’t 15 minute trips to the grocery store. These are hours in set circulation patterns. As we’ve seen these are crowded hallways and locker rooms for sports teams.
Get community incidence low which includes no in person instruction, no activities which require indoor groupings. No fucking parents hosting events. Hey let’s have food cause that’s consistent with wearing masks!
Schools should be very high on the list to open. But when it’s bad there is no way in hell that leaving them open does not contribute to spread. Is it only 50% bad as indoor dining? I don’t know and it doesn’t ducking matter. The system can’t handle it in lolAmerica.
At some point in doesn’t matter if it’s -20 or -40 outside. You are getting frostbite either way. Right now schools being open is crazy. Indoor dining is crazy. Church is crazy. But the economy! The economy is going to ducking crash when 40,000 a week are dying.
I call absolute bullshit on the opposing view. The math will get there as more data comes in with careful analysis. I’ll let some ego show— I’m known in my field for marrying math and intuition. This math is all closely related to my life’s work and my gut has yet to be wrong when it so strongly points me in one direction. Sometimes it takes time getting the data and calcs right to provide proof!but what we know now is actionable.
1 Like
I’m suspect of all numbers starting Friday and going for about 10 days. We’ve seen testing and reporting lags around every holiday and face it- thanksgiving goes from the Friday before to Sunday/Monday after.
Now is the time to take a big gulp and be patient with the data. Accept that it’s likely going to be funky for a few days.
2 Likes
I have several reasons why I don’t do curbside pickup.
- I’m not wealthy and won’t pay extra for someone else to do my shopping.
- I have a moral objection to the gig economy and try to avoid utilizing it. I don’t do Uber, I don’t do DoorDash, I don’t do Instacart. Now, you may say that if a grocery store doing it then it’s not a gig economy job, but it’s still trying to operate in that space.
- I buy mainly fresh fruits, vegetables, and meat and don’t trust other people to pick out those things for me.
- My shopping list is determined on the fly based on what works with what I see that is available in stores. I don’t shop based on recipes for what I am going to cook. I create recipes based on what I see in the store.
I’m already willing to play live poker in places where there is a mask mandate that is enforced. Shopping in a grocery store, especially with my tendency to go during off-hours when it’s almost empty, seems like a much smaller risk.
6 Likes
Rebekah Jones is 100% on the grift.
1 Like
Well that needs some justification.
I wish these ghouls would be held accountable for this shit.
1 Like
Yeah, that’s my impression.
In this “analysis”, if I can dignify it with that word, she uses CDC indicators of risk of spread, but in its explanatory document accompanying this, the CDC says this:
If, after applying the core indicators described in the table below, a school is at “medium,” “higher,” or “highest” risk of transmission, it does not mean that the school cannot re-open for in-person learning
What is the point in using CDC indicators if you’re going to ignore what the CDC says they mean?
Like I know you’re for closing schools and that’s fine, I’m not actually trying to have that argument, but it doesn’t mean you need to give the tick of approval to every piece of pseudoscientific bullshit which happens to come to the same conclusion.
Either she didn’t read the accompanying CDC document explaining what the indicators mean, or she did but she decided to ignore it and forge ahead with telling her readers that this means that schools can’t open according to the CDC’s own criteria. I’ll let you pick.
I hope that’s not Risk. Terrible strategy to mass armies on interior territories.
1 Like
Quick Risk story. One of my sons who happens to be color blind celebrated after taking out his brother. Turns out he missed a country due to red/brown looking the same and no residual armies left to attack the lone holdout.
His asshole father took extreme advantage.
12 Likes
I essentially never dealt with the parents of my kids’ friends. Hard to imagine it being a problem. I stood around at some bday parties pretending to care about sports once in a while, but, not a big deal and I got some cake. PTA or something?
Here is the key paragraph from the blog post you just linked to:
We calculated district-wide case rates for 3,775 school districts for this analysis, from only those districts reporting enrollment data (both total and face-to-face enrollment) and a minimum of two COVID-19 cases in their schools.
The findings?
Fewer than 3% of open school districts reporting data have school case rates below 5 per 100,000.
That means 97% of school districts currently open and reporting cases do not fall into the “lowest risk” category for reopening schools.
If you filter the cases for students only enrolled in face-to-face instruction, only four districts have school-district case rates of fewer than 5 per 100,000. Four. Not four percent - four total districts. Three are in Virginia - a state that has made it difficult to track cases in schools, and the fourth is in Michigan.
It’s a little hard to tell exactly what’s going on because the explanation is unclear and the data is almost impossible to look at, but it appears that they filtered out the school districts with the fewest cases, then reported that the remaining population had a bunch of cases!
Yeah I squinted at this and moved on, because I was sure I must be misreading it, but maybe not. You’d need a student population of over 40,000 to get < 5 in 100,000 with at least 2 cases in the district, and population over 40,000 describes only about 1% of school districts in the US, but she said the number qualifying was “less than 3%”, implying more than 2%, so who knows.
Also can we talk about how insane a criterion < 5 in 100,000 is? There are what 330 million people in the US, so 5 per 100,000 would be 16.5K total active cases in the entire country. Like no shit you can’t open schools if that’s going to be your criterion, I don’t need a super sick analysis to tell me that.
Frankly Danspartan I have a hard time believing you actually read any of this shit before posting it.