Took a quick look at states before starting work. The 9 day offset CFRs are all over the map. PA and CT have run 6-7%. NY has drifted down to about 2%. A lot of the current biggies are down around 1%.
Lots of noise in places that have dumped batches of deaths in due to reclassification.
Basically it’s a mess and makes me think the biggest difference between states is likely reporting rules. Wouldn’t it be nice if someone, say the CDC was standardizing these things.
The gradual downtrend is likely testing.
USA: Hold my beer
- Virus isn’t real
- Virus is real, but not very widespread
- Virus is real and widespread, but not very dangerous
- Virus is real, widespread, and dangerous; but is totally out of control now so we might as well just accept it
Paywalled, but the gist of it is we’re fucked
The California coronavirus outlook worsened over the holiday weekend, as hospitalizations continued to rise and more counties were added Sunday to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s COVID-19 watch list, which is now at its highest level since the pandemic began.
The rate at which coronavirus tests in California are coming back positive has jumped 42% over the last two weeks, according to data published on the Los Angeles Times’ California coronavirus tracker. An increasing rate of positive test results is an indication that disease transmission is worsening.
The Fourth of July marked the 15th consecutive day that California tallied record hospitalization numbers of confirmed coronavirus patients. On Saturday, the state recorded 5,669 patients with confirmed coronavirus infections in California hospitals—an increase of 62% over the previous two weeks.
On June 27, just a week earlier, the state had reported 4,498 hospitalized patients with confirmed cases of COVID-19. On June 20, the number was 3,494.
The number of intensive care unit patients statewide with confirmed coronavirus infections is up 63% over the last three weeks. On Saturday, there were 1,711 people with confirmed coronavirus infections in the ICU; on the previous Saturday, there were 1,376; the week before that, there were 1,149; and on June 13, there were 1,049.
And Los Angeles County officials said Sunday that the holiday weekend saw the highest single-day count of new cases since the pandemic began. More than 3,200 new cases were reported in the county on Friday.
Hospitalizations of patients with confirmed coronavirus infections in Los Angeles County have jumped nearly 50% in the last three weeks. On Saturday, there were 1,921 patients in L.A. County hospitals with confirmed coronavirus infections; seven days earlier, there were 1,710; the week before that, there were 1,453; and the week prior to that, there were 1,285.
More bad news from the Spain study:
Seroprevalence was 5·0% (95% CI 4·7–5·4) by the point-of-care test and 4·6% (4·3–5·0) by immunoassay, with a specificity–sensitivity range of 3·7% (3·3–4·0; both tests positive) to 6·2% (5·8–6·6; either test positive), with no differences by sex and lower seroprevalence in children younger than 10 years (<3·1% by the point-of-care test). There was substantial geographical variability, with higher prevalence around Madrid (>10%) and lower in coastal areas (<3%). Seroprevalence among 195 participants with positive PCR more than 14 days before the study visit ranged from 87·6% (81·1–92·1; both tests positive) to 91·8% (86·3–95·3; either test positive). In 7273 individuals with anosmia or at least three symptoms, seroprevalence ranged from 15·3% (13·8–16·8) to 19·3% (17·7–21·0). Around a third of seropositive participants were asymptomatic, ranging from 21·9% (19·1–24·9) to 35·8% (33·1–38·5). Only 19·5% (16·3–23·2) of symptomatic participants who were seropositive by both the point-of-care test and immunoassay reported a previous PCR test.
Wasn’t there some hope that a large number of people (1) don’t develop antibodies, (2) have fought the virus off, and (3) therefore might be immune but not showing up in antibody tests?
This doesn’t mean herd immunity is “unachievable.” But it does indicate that we aren’t anywhere near achieving it, and this is evidence against any theory that we’re closer to achieving it than we think.
The military seems to be struggling mightily with Covid. 3400 new cases reported today and 2 more deaths among active duty military.
mom should be going to prison sigh
Or the White House to be honored as a Gold Star parent in the War On Reality.
No they won’t.
You need to move the date to end of July, not July 19, which is the July 13-19 period for 7dma. It takes longer to die than 3-4 weeks.
I have pretty bad allergies and sometimes get asthma symptoms, even though that’s pretty much under control. My allergist suggested wearing a mask when walking the dog and it’s kinda mind blowing how much better I feel after walks now. What I’m trying to say is that the “I can’t wear a mask because of allergies and asthma” people are dumb.
“Fine people on both sides”
Mom should 100% be charged with child neglect.
The only positive in that story is that the child only took up a hospital bed for 3 days. That sounds cold and harsh, but if somebody is going to die from this after insanely stupid and irresponsible behavior I’d rather that bed be freed up quickly for another patient who wasn’t willfully getting infected. Sucks it was a kid who had little choice in the matter though.
