COVID-19: Chapter 5 - BACK TO SCHOOL

https://mobile.twitter.com/JimSwiftDC/status/1281270668546445315

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The plan is to blame the Guatemalan janitor for probably being an illegal and that’s why little Jimmy got sick.

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Great article about kids returning to school that addresses a lot of concerns raised ITT would love to hear thoughts

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Man, you got unlucky.

When I had mono, I was out for I think three weeks, with semester exams right in the middle. My biology teacher surprised me with a call at home to tell me that I didn’t have to take the exam. He said all I needed was a B to keep my A in the class and he knew I would get it, so he just gave me the A. My guidance counselor then went to the rest of my teachers to tell them that, so a couple more did the same thing. I had one “exam exemption,” which I used, so I only ended up having to take one final when I was healthy.

I grew up in Wisconsin and despite that, I can’t remember having a snow day because we were so used to snow that the plows were always out at like 4:00am clearing the streets. Once we had about a day and a half off because it was TOO COLD and a water main at the school broke. It was something like -70 with wind chill.

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I spent 5 years in Maine as a kid so yeah I totally remember the no snow days thing. The states that get a lot of snow know how to handle it basically. There were more days off for inclement weather in Texas than in Maine lol.

It’s a piece with a deceptive headline trying to smuggle reality to people who still haven’t made contact with it.

Over 100 kids in one school in Israel.

Don’t tell me kids don’t get it or that they don’t spread it.

Households are more likely to be adult → child than vice-versa because adults go out more and are more exposed than children other than school.

Only 5% require hospitalization? That’s one kid per class that will have to be hospitalized.

I don’t care much about studies in Iceland which had so few cases; they can open schools there. We have a fuckton of cases right now and likely more by August. We can’t safely open schools.

And then there is the unknown about long-term damage to kids, whether lung capacity or neurological or other issues.

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I like that he looks at the problem from all sides and is acknowledges the risks. He does make a lot of minimizing arguments in his writing style which I don’t like “only 5%…”

I think he is missing a couple of factors, apologies if I missed something as I did a quick read:

  1. Long term effects- we simply don’t know but there are some disturbing reports that this thing causes a lot more damage and long lived damage than is currently understood.

  2. No where else is anyone trying to open up with case densities with an order of magnitude of what is present in a good chunk of ‘Mercia#1

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https://twitter.com/georebekah/status/1281413882037391360?s=21

Wow. They did a backwards look To cases 2 months ago in Florida best I can tell. I assume that means that as testing has gone up we can expect cfr to go down but not that much. Still going to be at least 3%. Ouch. Florida is going to be at 10,000/month in August/September if this holds.

https://twitter.com/maddow/status/1281356159849562112?s=21

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I was kinda thinking about this the other day, but if this had happened when I was a kid, it would have literally been hell on earth. Both my parents home and all my siblings with nothing to do and nowhere to go? fuuuuuuuuuck. I can still hear it now, “You have to do something productive, you can’t just lay around all day.” I feel horrible for all the kids out there today, I don’t know how they’re dealing with it.

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I just said to my wife last night that we are acting like 1793 Philly during the Yellow Fever. Total mystery. Total voodoo. Blaming the helpers (in that case the free Blacks that were helping nurse patients and Collect the dead).

https://twitter.com/jotis13/status/1280949294099505152?s=21

https://twitter.com/mj_mouton/status/1281401970234884096?s=21

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I agree, like the 6 weeks idea is based on us being able to do an actual shutdown, like only employees allowed in the grocery store kinda shutdown, which we won’t do.

It’s insane that people minimize numbers like this. Before this pandemic, if one kid in a classroom was hospitalized for any reason, at least the entire grade, if not the entire school, would make him cards, there would be a #TimmyStrong campaign, the local Little League would have a fundraiser, etc.

Now it’s like, oh, it’s just a cost of doing business.

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I don´t think it is that remarkable at all. Your mind somehow has to deal with probabilities and it steers you toward acceptance as that is psychologically the easiest way of doing so.

When I had testicular cancer, my doctor told me, that I had metastases in/ near my kidneys and that this would decrease my likelyhood of survival from 98% to 95%. This did not really change my outlook at all. Had I played poker back than, it might have been different, but the chance of dying just felt like a different but still really small number and I really did not want to think about it too much.

I think the difference is that I was not able to change anything, so I had to cope somehow. As a collective there are lots of things the US could have done/ could do, but individually there is obviously a limit too that (and also don´t forget that students and even most teachers are in age groups that will not be very badly affected - I go to school every day and do not really fear for myself - a little more for my mother-in-law who I also see every day).

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I’m leaning heavily towards keeping my kids out of school this year. Which will absolutely suck, but I don’t see any other responsible decision.

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As I teach at a high school in Germany I could do an AMA on teaching during the COVID 19 pandemic, if people are interested in a thread dedicated to that topic.

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Florida 11,433/93. 44,000 tests performed for a 26% positive rate.

Florida is doing a significantly lower amount of tests this week and still doing terrible. I guess just shutting off testing doesn’t solve it. Who knew.

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This is obviously pretty bad. It’s about the same as peak daily new confirmed cases in New York. New York’s peak positive rate was about twice as high, so real new cases in New York had to be much higher than what is currently happening in Florida. At the same time, New York was seriously locked down when it was posting these type of numbers. Florida isn’t and likely never will be.

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My wife registered my kids today for online learning, apparently they are giving the option to change what you want to do every 9 weeks though. So i guess we will take it 9 weeks at a time.

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