of course cops will get it first
According to current CDC guidance, the first populations to get a new vaccine that’s in short supply would be front-line and essential workers such as public health personnel, critical health care employees, law enforcement and the manufacturers of the vaccine.
FWIW I get mine at Walgreens where they already have my insurance on file. Takes me literally five minutes
Or New York City
Or the credit card tweet from JP Morgan I posted above
and yes definitely STFU
bitches be protestin
Here’s a little more analysis from last week’s new cases vs. SDI graphs. There are three tiers here. The worst tier has states that fell well below my target SDI guesses for multiple weeks. The second tier has states that fell well below my target SDI guesses but for only a short period of time. The third tier has states I think are on the danger line.
All of these states are ones that should be watched for prolonged surges (does not indicate level of case rise but may be more predictive of the length of surge). Those in the first tier might be in for the longest surges, but may also have the largest case rises during that surge period. I’m holding to my prediction that North Carolina will be one of the longest hotspots for an undetermined amount of time if my target SDI guess is right. I have no idea whether North Carolina will end up in a Florida type situation, but I think its best prospects, if my target SDI is right, are something similar to Arizona for a prolonged period of time. Again, all this is based on guesses of what I perceive to be the target SDI as of last week. I should be able to add more data on Monday or Tuesday if there is an update.
One last note is prolonged good SDI may nullify some of the effects that could happen below, which is part of why I think several places that aren’t performing poorly are worth tracking.
Tier 1:
North Carolina (4 weeks 12+ below target SDI, 1 week 7 below target SDI, 2 weeks 6 below target SDI)
Alaska (1 week 9 below target SDI, 2 weeks 8 below target SDI)
California (2 weeks 9 below target SDI, 2 weeks 5 below target SDI)
Georgia (2 weeks 7 below target SDI, 2 weeks 6 below target SDI)
Ohio (1 week 8 below target SDI, 1 week 7 below target SDI, 1 week 6 below target SDI)
Mississippi (1 week 8 below target SDI, 1 week 7 below target SDI, 1 week 6 below target SDI)
Wisconsin (1 week 9 below target SDI, 2 weeks 7 below target SDI, 1 week 6 below target SDI)
Kentucky (1 week 9 below target SDI, 1 week 8 below target SDI, 1 week 7 below target SDI, 1 week 5 below target SDI)
West Virginia (1 week 9 below target SDI, 1 week 8 below target SDI, 1 week 6 below target SDI, 1 week 5 below target SDI)
Rhode Island (3 weeks 7 below target SDI)
Tier 2:
Texas (1 week 8 below target SDI, 1 week 7 below target SDI, 1 week 6 below target SDI)
Florida (1 week 7 below target SDI, 1 week 6 below target SDI, 1 week 5 below target SDI)
Washington (1 week 8 below target SDI, 2 weeks 6 below target SDI)
Illinois (1 week 7 below target SDI, 2 weeks 6 below target SDI)
Tier 3:
South Carolina (1 week 7 below target SDI, 1 week 5 below target SDI)
Hawaii (1 week 7 below target SDI, 1 week 5 below target SDI)
Nevada (1 week 6 below target SDI, 1 week 5 below target SDI)
Oklahoma (2 weeks 5 below target SDI)
Iowa (if target SDI is 30, they have 3 weeks 9 below target SDI, if target SDI is 25, they don’t belong on this list)
South Dakota (1 week 6 below target SDI, 2 weeks 5 below target SDI)
North Dakota (1 week 6 below target SDI, 1 week 5 below target SDI)
Montana (1 week 6 below target SDI, 1 week 5 below target SDI)
Massachusetts (1 week 5 below target SDI)
Michigan (1 week 5 below target SDI)
Hopefully we have competent leadership by then. You probably want to involve the military and National Guard. You want to let doctors and nurses nationwide sign up. In theory one doctor/nurse should be able to vaccinate at least 60 people per minute if they’re all lined up. The messy part is the paperwork, let the military/guard do that.
60 per minute comes to 92,000 man hours to do it. Say 12 hours a day, that’s 7,640 man days. Say you aim to do it in a month, that’s 255 man months. So having enough people to do it isn’t the issue.
The big issue is getting people to not all show up at the same time and getting it to rural areas.
If they can make 330M doses quick enough, a competent executive can administer them. Hopefully Biden wins. Otherwise throw out all the math and convert to Trump years, and my modeling shows we’ll be finished vaccinating in approximately the year 20never.
Well if they’re going to be all up in protesters faces then throwing Miami Beach porno parties, I’d prefer they not be transmitting it to the good guys. So I’m going to choose to go glass half full on this one.
Could be getting somewhat bad (by non lol-USA standards) in Melbourne (Australia not Florida). 108 new cases today and about 500 this week after being in single digits three weeks ago. Large majority is community spread whereas beforehand it’d been majority returning travellers tested in quarantine.
New Zealand are all returned travellers in quarantine. There is no local transmission. Melbourne outbreak started in badly managed quarantine hotels for returning travellers.
Complete with security guards banging the quarantined people!
Doesn’t this almost have to indicate that your target SDI is wrong for North Carolina? So much time has already passed, we’ve already seen the effects of that. Like I think the link is clear between SDI and cases once a threshold is crossed, but in order for it to be predictive you have to have the correct target SDI, and you also realistically need to factor in mask usage.
In the case of North Carolina, I wouldn’t be surprised if mask compliance is actually quite high in the Research Triangle area, which is highly educated. Perhaps also in Charlotte. Greensboro I could argue either way. Winston-Salem I’d suspect less, but it’s more of a suburban area than urban for the most part. (I lived there for a football and basketball season when I worked in sports broadcasting.)
I can’t know if it’s wrong for sure for at least another few weeks. The reason I have them at 40 is that their cases never ‘flattened’. In order to get any kind of flattening effect it appears you need several weeks of at least 10 above the target SDI. Getting anywhere near 40 started the rise, and the rise went big when they fell more than 10 below the target SDI. If their target is 35, then there would have been more flattening (in my opinion) than there was at the beginning. If it’s 30, there would have been significant flattening which I just don’t see.
After going back and looking through Wed-Fri numbers, I think it’s possible their number could be 35, but that still puts them solidly in tier 1 (1 week 11 below, 1 week 8 below, and 2 weeks 7 below). I’d have to dig deeper into testing to see if there’s any increase in testing that explains the jumps near the 40 line. I still think 4 weeks of 15 points above target SDI would have produced more flattening than we saw based on what I’m seeing in other places, so I really don’t know. It’s the only real outlier (other than the low case ones) I’m seeing, so it’s possible the target SDI is wrong. Still, that three week period where it was around 35 (if that’s the true target SDI I think it has too much case rise, as that kind of case rise shouldn’t have started until the week of 6/10-6/16).
Here’s the graph again (SDI not updated from 6/24-6/30 but cases are):
Here are the Wed-Fri. numbers since they last were above 40 SDI. If something jumps out at you, let me know (for me, the rise clearly has started by 5/6-5/8):
7/1-7/3: 5571
6/24-6/26: 4365
6/17-6/19: 3987
6/10-6/12: 3089
6/3-6/5: 3366
5/27-5/29: 2348
5/20-5/22: 1918
5/14-5/16: 2166
5/6-5/8: 1612
4/29-5/1: 1355
4/22-4/24: 1101
Are you sure that’s linear and not a percentage? Also SDI only measures movement, right? Not precautions?
Wouldn’t that graph also be explained by an SDI target of 35 and a ramp up of testing? Or, say, good distancing and precautions in some areas (as I mentioned) and not in others? Could be an R0 < 1 in most population centers but like 2-3 in the rural areas. You could find the geographic distribution of cases to check.
Based on your numbers, early May could be a spike from Easter and early June from Mother’s Day or from reopening. I forget their opening date off hand.
When trump said to liberate America for haircuts the protests were ok, not so much for systematic racism i guess.
What does your R0 say for those weeks if you’ve measured that far back?
I’m pretty sure SDI score doesn’t factor anything like masks in, so probably largely movement. For the actual graph, I have the data on the testing and I’ll give it a look tomorrow to see if that plays into what’s happening. It will be fairly easy to see where case rises are happening by looking in a few places. Phase 1 was May 8-22. Phase 2 started May 22.
From examining the graphs in depth earlier this week, the effects definitely appear to be point based and not percentage based (I’m guessing about what looks like flattening or bent curve). Every place that bent their curve without a fast bounce back was 20+ SDI points above their target for a minimum of 4 weeks. Anything 3 weeks or below showed a significant bounce back relatively quickly after they fell below their target SDI (suggests flattening at 3 weeks rather than bending). As always, these truly are guesses with little data that I think could come into clearer focus in about another month (super helpful I know).
Alaska: 3 weeks 20+ above target SDI guess (major bounce since falling below target SDI guess)
New York: 5 weeks 20+ above target SDI guess (very slow bounce back and has barely ever been below their target SDI guess)
D.C.: 3 weeks 20+ above target SDI guess, 7 weeks 15+ above target SDI guess (curve appears crushed)
Nevada: 3 weeks 20+ above target SDI guess, 6 weeks 15+ above target SDI guess (had a flat curve for a long time but has had severe bounce back after falling below target SDI guess)
Illinois: 3 weeks 20+ above target SDI guess, 6 weeks 15+ above target SDI guess (slow bounce back)
Pennsylvania: 6 weeks 20+ above target SDI guess (slow bounce back present below SDI target guess)
Maryland: 4 weeks 20+ above target SDI guess (seems to have bent its curve but is having a slight bounce back)
New Jersey: 5 weeks 20+ above target SDI guess, 7 weeks 15+ above target SDI (curve’s still bent but slowing)
Michigan: 5 weeks 20+ above target SDI guess, 8 weeks 15+ above target SDI (slow bounce back)
Colorado: 6 weeks 20+ above target SDI guess (slow bounce back without falling below target SDI guess)
Connecticut: 5 weeks 20+ above target SDI guess, 7 weeks 15+ above target SDI guess (bent curve slowing)
Delaware: 5 weeks 20+ above target SDI guess, 7 weeks 15+ above target SDI guess (bent curve is slowly bouncing back while having only one week under target SDI guess)
Rhode Island: 5 weeks 20+ above target SDI guess (curve still bent)
New Hampshire: 6 weeks 20+ above target SDI guess (bent curve slowly turning around)
Vermont: 5 weeks 20+ above target SDI guess (bent curve)
Turns out the 15 days to slow the spread are the 15 days before the election when the tiny sliver of Americans that decide every election decide who to vote for.
I am going to assume the bottle neck with testing is lab capacity which is not needed for vaccines.
The vaccine roll out is a logistical nightmare. The bigger problem is who in their right mind is going to get a vaccine that has skipped normal testing steps and been overseen by Trump and his band of morons under the banner of OPERATION WARP SPEED.
You couldn’t pick a worse name to make people distrust it if you tried. You might as well call it I don’t give a fuck if you die or have serious health consequences as long as I win the election.
A few years ago my county ran a disaster preparedness drill with their department of health to test their ability to mass inoculate for probably just the situation we are dealing with now. It was a free flu shot they were using to test the drill and they made it available for free to anyone who would sign up in advance to generate inoculating a few thousand people over the course of a few hours. Anyway I signed up, as did my wife. We were in and out in like 5 minutes, it was very efficient. This isn’t that hard.
The other reason why a vaccine isn’t too likely to matter much here is we will reach herd immunity before it is done with 330m doses available. Let’s say we are 5x undercounting cases. That means roughly 8 million people infected a month or 2.5% of the population a month at today’s infection rate. That is going to grow over the coming months as there is no hope in sight for any real measures against it. There is a very real chance 60% of us have had this by the end of the year.
