COVID-19: Chapter 5 - BACK TO SCHOOL

This must be why their stock tanked 8% a few days ago.

I fell asleep driving on the interstate through Atlanta. Luckily my friend in the passenger seat worked as a driver’s ed instructor for the summer and was used to grabbing the wheel.

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https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1300827011288461313

This needs to be a statue.

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The issue with any test is that it cannot serve two masters. Tests are evaluated by their sensitivity and specificity.

The more sensitive you make a test, you make it less likely to miss someone (false negative), but you run the risk of identifying people as having a disease when they really don’t (false positive). With testing sensitivity, you want to identify the true positives.

The more specific a test, the less likely you are to misidentify someone as having a disease when they don’t (false positive), but if the test is too specific, you might miss people who have the disease (false negative).

It helps to think of them like a guard dog. An overly sensitive test will be like a dog that barks at every sound, no matter how minor. Will they identify an intruder this way? Yes, but they will also bark at a lot of things that aren’t. An overly specific test will be like a dog that doesn’t bark until they see someone with a gun in your bedroom. Will the dog not wake you up multiple times per night? Yes. But they also won’t alarm you until it is too late.

From a smart guy on cheifsplanet. Best simple description of sensitivity and specificity I’ve heard.

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What if we gave the guard dog a gun

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https://twitter.com/NYGov/status/1300530314712940546

NY isn’t messing around. The “recent uptick” is having a regional positivity rate between 1% and 2% over the last 7 days.

Just another excuse for DeSantis to lower the amount of testing being done in Florida past its already completely criminally low level. If this problem is going on in Florida, it’s probably 10 times worse everywhere else Quest is doing major work (all of the former biggest hot spots, if I remember correctly).

I will remind everyone testing is a joke right now and has been for nearly 6 weeks. There is absolutely zero clear picture of what’s going on right now outside of what’s quickly becoming a handful of states and we’re very close to flying completely blind (off the top of my head, I’d guess no more than 10 states or so are giving a reliable picture). Other than the biggest ‘former’ hot spots, such as Florida, most of the country is heading back up in cases from the period of 8/26-9/1.

By next Tuesday evening, I wouldn’t be surprised if the country has its first completely red map since very early in the entire pandemic (cases going up everywhere). Places like Florida, Georgia, and Arizona have probably reported their lowest cases in 6-8 weeks in this period which means it can’t get much lower without testing being down to nearly zero.

lol Zoom stock is up 40% today

Whoa

I guess business bros are betting on no vaccine any time soon?

The jump is because the company’s Q2 results were incredible. Of course, that is to be expected so lolefficientmarkets?

Got my flu shot at CVS today. It was a little strange since it was the my first time inside a building other than my home for over 5 months. The Barnes and Noble around the corner has permanently closed.

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Honestly it’s incredible how well Zoom was able to handle what must have been an exponentially massive increase in traffic. There was a little security/privacy blip at the beginning but beyond that they’ve absolutely killed it. I use it a huge amount and can only recall two instances of connectivity problems over the course of six months.

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Now if the entertainment industry can get them to automatically provide at least 44.1kHz with hopefully 48kHz audio we can start creating content that doesn’t sound like it’s coming out of a cell phone dropped in a toilet. Its current quality is 32kHz and it’s a major deficiency with Zoom, the highest used platform for people doing interviews for various purposes including broadcast.

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https://twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/1300873089765584896?s=20

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Nice analogy on the 6% bullshit that my friend posted today:

Blockquote
Imagine this. Every day you have to walk along a very
dangerous cliff. You don’t like it, it’s just part of your life, but you’ve figured out how to live with it. Then one day someone very bad hiding along the trail pushes you off as you walk by, sending you to your untimely death.
In this case, did the dangerous but navigable trail murder you, or did the bad person who shoved you off that trail do it?
I’m asking for the 94% of people who died when COVID-19 pushed them to death from a preexisting condition that they had otherwise been managing to live with.

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My elevator pitch: Uber for flu shots.

Now throw $10M at me please.

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Uber for X doesn’t work anymore. Uber is too mainstream now and not really considered cutting edge disruption.

Zoom for flu shots

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