COVID-19: Chapter 5 - BACK TO SCHOOL

It never got started in Adelaide. There’s never been a need for it. This is my first time wearing one.

It’s pretty normal. It’s just like we’re having a recession. Also a bit weird and dull because there’s not much in the way of sports and concerts and whatnot.

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That’s not how you win a Darwin award

I thought AFL and NRL were happening?

Right but a lot of amateur sports isn’t happening and the professional ones have distanced crowds. Weird lifeless feel, just a reminder that things aren’t normal. Like life seems normal superficially but there are constant reminders that this is going on still.

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Yeah I think China’s numbers are much much closer to reality than USA’s numbers

They had less virulent strand and they lock down for real

Plus it’s pretty hard to be more than the 30%+ off we are on excess deaths

I can’t even read any politics tonight without feeling my BP going up. The idea that 60 million fellow citizens vote for the guy is just unbelievable to me. But yeah ho hum another covid 9-11 during the 4 days of the convention.

Guess I’ll watch some spor… never mind more racists cops killed another black man and then looked the other way while some white punk shot people with an ak47.

Such a dark time in the world and it doesn’t have to be this way.

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My sister-in-law posted pics of my nieces going to school. It’s a private school in a more liberal part of a red state. They are requiring all students, even the little ones, to wear masks in common areas. My nieces are young enough that their classes don’t require masks in classrooms, but third grade and up will be masked up at all times. They’ve put out a procedure for suspected cases and exposure that explicitly includes the possibility of closing down all or part of the school.

In more depressing news, OFC seems to be going great.

Alabama, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan (appears on the way up), Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Kansas (yesterday, and they had their highest Mon and Wed reporting by a wide margin this week) all had big days today.

And, uh, South Dakota reported 623 new cases today. Their previous high was 251 on 8/22. They hit over 200 only 2 other days in the pandemic, May 8 and 9. Most of the time they’ve been in the mid to high double digits and low triple digits.

Y’all are absolutely mad if you think China’s numbers are anything but fantasyland nonsense. This thing was already worldwide before China sounded the alarm, but somehow it didn’t spread at all within China outside Wuhan. Despite the mass travel during the lunar holiday. Amazing. Before we knew anything about how it flies under the radar, they had it totally under control.

C’mon man, there’s no way COVID isn’t going buck wild through China’s Uighur prison camps as we speak.

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They locked down in January.

And I mean actually locked down.

And their strain was less virulent.

Why would they have huge numbers when every other country that locked down like that also has super low numbers?

America’s numbers are fantasy land. I think it was 38% undercounting excess deaths as of July 1st? And of course cases who knows.

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You are mad if you think they are anything like USA, Brasil, India or Russia. They completely locked down any place that had cases. And their lockdown made New Zealand look open for business. When you do that and have 100% mask compliance then you kill this virus in 6-8 weeks. Their Wuhan death numbers are a joke but it never spread significantly in China outside of that province. It is Iran and Italy that messed up big time early and then were followed by even bigger failures in USA and Brasil.

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https://twitter.com/joshscampbell/status/1299203202328354816?s=19

What can you report about conditions in D.C. in general right now? It looks like cases are starting to move up this week.

They actually locked down weeks after the virus had already spread outside Wuhan.

Yeah, and they didn’t have zero cases.

But they locked down all over in January and nipped it in the bud.

I’m sure their numbers are lower than actual, but so are ours. I don’t buy that they are further off reality than USA’s for “reasons.”

As far as the data goes, case numbers have been jumping around quite a bit, but I do think we’re at a plateau / rising trend not a decline (even though the official R figure is still below one). Hospital capacity is good and positivity rates are decent, but the DC gov has acknowledged that lag in test processing is making the data dirtier than they would like and also making contact tracing more difficult.

On the personal behavior front, mask usage seems to be pretty good. The restaurants near me seem more crowded (I think people were still mostly doing takeout when dining was first permitted, but they’re eating at the restaurant more frequently now). Anecdotally, a lot of friends and coworkers decided that Covid wasn’t going to get in the way of a summer vacation, so I imagine there have been/will be some cases imported from the beaches in North Carolina, Florida, etc. Schools will be remote, but the pods and other quasi daycare arrangements are definitely gearing up.

I guess my overall sense is that people aren’t going full YOLO, but things are loosening up along the margins.

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That’s what the data seems to indicate. I think it’s pretty clear there’s at least a small real rise going on but it’s not alarming yet. I also agree that it looks like there is something going on with lag as well, meaning that today was the first day where I really thought there was a legit rise happening and not just dirty data. It’s basically at ~75 cases today when it’s been hovering around 50 per day for weeks with a few aberrations here and there almost always coinciding with testing level.

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Smash Mouth is connected to approximately 100 new cases of Covid-19.

Shockedpikachuface.jpg

https://mobile.twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1299223295338917888

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Fucking waygook ruining the already negative reputation of foreigners in South Korea.

The bare feet is even more infuriating.

Koreans accounted well for themselves though.

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