No, the upward trend is already happening and began on Tuesday or Wednesday if I remember correctly. I expect big increases coming next week probably by Wednesday. If there’s a lot of mask usage it might not get as high as the peak but I definitely don’t think we’re going to have anything close to resembling a 40-45k 7DMA coming soon. I’m not sure it will get below the 50k 7DMA until we make it through the OFS wave which could be months. I don’t think cases will ever get much higher than whatever that wave produces until ‘full’ OFS happens, which probably won’t based on how OFS is going to go and the data we’ve already been seeing that is really not promising.
It’s very important to remember all of these same conversations happened around June 12 (the obvious OFB surge started June 16) and then near July 12 (surge appears relatively obvious around July 14, but was in tandem with OFB so isn’t as easy to see an exact moment). You’re mentioning this August 15, when the first real effects of open OFS will begin noticeably showing up starting around August 17. We’re already seeing them in places like Indiana and Georgia, but I think we’ll be seeing a shoot up in cases probably no later than August 21 if one is coming. Also, testing is down down down and clearly being manipulated right now to make it look like it’s only a little bit down. Data is not trustworthy at this moment as far as I can tell.
I’ll say it again, right now things are worse than they appear based on the numbers we’re being shown. When it gets bad soon, it will not be as bad as it looks but will still be really bad. I’m expecting to see a third big hill on our graph when the effects come in.
National Titles mean nothing when all teams aren’t playing and when potential stars who could shape big time outcomes on teams are sick or dead. But gotta get dat money from their indentured servants…
Lol THE WHITE HOUSE. What the fuck is happening. This cannot be reality. We are going to kill people for SPORTSBAW so Donald has a slightly lower chance of losing.
At this point, I’m wondering if we should want these teams to start the season and have to cancel midway through because that makes Trump look the worst and harms his re-election chances the most.
MLB commish what’s his name says something about Reds have a chance to show how to handle their one positive. (This is what I understand from snippets I’ve heard today)
Hey shit for brains—whatever is going to happen with the Reds has always happened. If it’s going to be a cluster of cases it’s because the others are ALREADY infected. Why can’t supposedly smart people understand the lags involved. It’s not that hard yet the same thing keeps happening again and again and again.
As for the B1G football, if any of those teams play or any of the conference do play have a tragedy I’m going to give 0 fucks when they get sued for $100,000,000 and if they were the kids/parents involved with one of these stupid “let us play” letters I give them 0 fucks as well.
My sincere hope is that campus cases cause some early team outbreaks and the whole thing gets shut down soon and no one gets hurt. I don’t want to be right but kids on campus plus hundreds of fat football players putting all kinds of strain on their hearts is math that doesn’t make me hopeful.
Gawd I just search “Ohio state” on the twitters and what a collection of morons.
Weird I don’t see any actual B1G reporters commenting about any of this and I follow several. Starting think this is just wishcasting by the crazies and not an actual story.
He’s taken credit for a bill that Obama signed into law over 150 times, best believe he’s taking credit for anything good that happens in the US while he’s in office.
It will be bad when it looks bad, and likely worse than it looks because it’s always worse than it looks when we don’t test enough and undercount deaths by 30%.
The fact that it’s worse now than it appears means exponential growth will be even worse than expected.
I don’t buy into your “it won’t be as bad as it looks in the future” theory
What I mean by that is let’s say today 55k cases are presenting on average (they’re not). The testing reduction is clearly showing that we’re still probably in reality near 70k grabbable new cases per day, but those are being missed. That’s 105k cases per week being missed that could be caught in that scenario. It lulls people into a false sense of security thinking it’s going down significantly or plateauing.
When things get bad (if testing can keep up), we’ll probably be hitting something like 90-100k cases per day. That looks like a near double in cases from what we’re seeing today, when it’s really a much lower rise based on the scenario I described above. It will be good at scaring people into thinking things are really really bad, when they’ve just gone up another rung of the terrible Olympics.
It’s an absolute given that the numbers I’m saying about 70k are much lower than what actually infected numbers are, just like that 90-100k are much lower than what actually infected numbers will be. We still have to go inside the framework of the best data we’ve ever had and that was the data at the very peak of the pandemic (so far) the week Sun-Sat of 7/12-7/18. The case numbers were much higher than testing theoretically allowed at that time and that’s a lot of what I base how I view the pandemic on right now (similarities to that week no matter how much of a bad metric that might be).
Would you agree that going from 50k-55k cases per day to 90k per day looks worse than going from 70k to 90k? This is not in any way saying that the really bad thing is less bad. I’m saying it will look worse in growth than it actually is based on what’s being missed right now. Now if we start catching 130k cases per day without massive testing, watch out. The thing people don’t seem to understand is that we have added 2.6 million confirmed cases since July 4. We’ve added roughly 3.6 million confirmed cases since June 1. That is insane even in the midst of a moderate slow down in cases since the peak.
What’s gonna cause testing to go up enough to get 90k cases/day?
I don’t think the lower testing is going to reverse that much; it’s being done on purpose
If it does increase it’ll be gradual
The way it could go up would be positive percentage increasing, which is a given with OFS and all of the uncaught cases right now
I seem to recall you using the “not as bad as it seems” wording for the future when discussing this theory in the past, which is why I’m more sensitive; like it’s preemptively downplaying the future shit that OFS is gonna cause, but maybe I remember it wrong or maybe you just weren’t as careful with your wording as this time.