COVID-19: Chapter 5 - BACK TO SCHOOL

There need to be more follow up studies like this - but from a pool of people to tested positive and maybe even test randomly for people with antibodies. Although some people don’t even develop antibodies, or lose them quickly. And of course it’s not even clear how reliable antibody tests are.

Basically it’s extremely difficult to get a random pool.

And I agree that there are enough anecdotal reports to scare the crap out of me. Like you said, we just don’t know - which is terrifying enough imo. I just didn’t want “78% chance of heart damage” to turn into a thing.

I propose you all just take an IQ test until we can get this thing figured out?

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Yeah, “78% of heart damage” shouldn’t turn into a thing.

But the study showed the damage/levels found was independent of severity of covid, so you are at risk of some amount of damage regardless of how bad your covid symptoms/recovery is. And this is 72 days on average after diagnosis.

But we don’t know if there will be real-world harm from this heart damage…is it temporary? Will it be noticeable in the future? Does it lower life expectancy? Does it create a comorbidity condition that increases your odds of other things like heart attacks or strokes in the future?

These are things I want answered before I send my kids to school.

I feel like this is the conclusion we got to when this study first came up.

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We’re not really ever going to know if it lowers life expectancy. (“we” as in us here now, as in we’ll be dead before that’s knowable) We’re not going to know about the risk for heart attacks or strokes in the future until your kids are well past school age.

If it keeps me from being able to hike up mountains I’d go into a pretty black depression, as that’s my only outlet right now. So that’s my personal biggest fear. Dying is way way down below long-term lung or heart issues on the fear scale for me.

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“I won’t send my kids back to school if there’s a reasonable chance they’ll get it” is a pretty reasonable take.

“It’s insane to send kids back to school when it’s obvious schools are just going to close again within a few weeks/months” is also a really reasonable take.

It doesn’t have to be “78% of kids are going to have long term damage” to not be open for business and back to school.

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I’m going with these numbers

5,000,000 x 10% serious long term implications is 500,000. Lets count those in addition to the 160,000 dead.

I don’t see anyway we don’t triple these numbers by next spring.

So that’s the very low end. 1.5 million people facing lifelong heart and/or lung issues.

I think that’s already past the point that it’s going to be an ongoing disaster.

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These are all true

But lots of non-reasonable people out there who want to open schools now even tho the first 2 points are true.

If people knew that kids may be affected long term (this study has zero relevance to kids) then maybe more people would act reasonably.

But you are right that we can’t know that anytime soon. But it’d be nice if we acted like it were a possibility and then followed your first statements.

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Following up on my post last week about herd immunity and the “low hanging fruit” idea that suzzer has posted about. I came across this academic article that explores the same idea and concludes that:

Our inferences result in herd immunity thresholds around 10-20%, considerably lower than the minimum coverage needed to interrupt transmission by random vaccination, which for R_0 higher than 2.5 is estimated above 60%. We emphasize that the classical formula, 1-1⁄R_0 , remains applicable to describe herd immunity thresholds for random vaccination, but not for immunity induced by infection which is naturally selective.

The article is not peer reviewed and I don’t know if the authors are cranks (they are from reputable universities, though). But the logic in the abstract makes sense to me and is essentially what I posted earlier: i.e. more susceptible people tend to get infected earlier, thus making the remaining pool of people less and less susceptible over time and decelerating transmission.

Now, 10-20% seems crazy to me. And I think schools reopening could destroy the assumptions here because it would radically change the percentage of people in the “susceptible” subpopulation. But I think the idea has some merit.

Was I sneaking across the border into Canada? Did I make it? Did I finally learn the words to O Canada?

A couple of things about this study that I don’t think were brought up last time.

First, I’m almost certain that there’s no way to compare the post-COVID measurements to the pre-COVID measurements, because there are no pre-COVID imaging-based measurements for these individuals. So it’s possible that these individuals already had elevated measures of whatever they’re measuring, and that COVID didn’t actually make those matters worse. Of course, this is why they use a control group that they attempt to match on relevant risk characteristics, so they can say, “Well, the COVID patients would probably look like this control group in the absence of having experienced COVID.” But that’s why random testing is so powerful, and why causal inference in the presence of selection is so difficult: it seems plausible to me that underlying heart measures (i.e., elevated heart measures that weren’t reported as symptomatic, but would have been detectable with the imaging used in this study) would be higher among the group of patients that got tested.

Here’s how that might play out: COVID interacts with heart/lungs in some way such that people with a previously-undiagnosed (and obviously minor) respiratory issue are more likely to experience COVID symptoms and/or have other reasons to get tested for COVID. If true, you’d expect to observe exactly what they find in this study - that heart measures are elevated for the COVID group. But it wouldn’t be because COVID caused the heart issues. Instead, it would be because the heart issues interacted with COVID to lead to over-sampling of the high-heart issue group.

I’m not saying that this is definitely what happened. (I think it’s likely that COVID does have some kind of long-term effects among some proportion of people who test positive.) What I’m saying is that this stuff is hard. I routinely have papers rejected at academic journals precisely because of this kind of selection issue, where the conclusions that you might want to draw simply aren’t possible based on the data you have.

The second issue is that there are two ways to interpret this “duration since diagnosis” statistic. One is scary, one not so much.

The scary interpretation is that if the detectable damage is not correlated with the time since diagnosis, it means the damage is permanent. That’s scary. What you’d like to have is evidence that the damage is high immediately after diagnosis, but then lessens over time.

The less-scary version forces you to (again) remember the selection issue. Who in this sample is going to have the longest period of time since diagnosis? The people that were most severely hospitalized. That’s because the study requires that the patients had to have experienced a resolution of their symptoms. In other words, hospitalized individuals will have taken the longest to recover (and thus have higher days since diagnosis), so it isn’t terribly surprising if those kinds of patients experience greater damage. But that doesn’t rule out the possibility that damage does actually decline/reverse over time. It’s just that in this study, an over-time decline would be offset by the higher proportion of more serious cases in the higher days since diagnosis group.

Short story of my opinion, before it gets misinterpreted: COVID is scary. Probably has long-term consequences for some people. There’s absolutely no way we can quantify those consequences with the current data.

I get that. Just look at Rodriguez a professional athlete who at 27, said he felt like 100 years old and is now out for the season with heart complications. I know it isn’t the flu, but my point stands. Covid is killing older people and people with underlying conditions. If you’re young and healthy, the chances of death by covid are statistically very low. The main issue is coming up with a plan that protects those who aren’t

To protect them by everyone wearing masks and like I said in my post, taking care of them monetarily so they can quarantine and don’t have to out and expose themselves

Your point is dumb because we have absolutely no idea how damaging this is to the people that COVID doesn’t kill. You bring up the professional athlete as a very visible, scary example of this, and then just completely ignore the implication of that example.

If you’re young and healthy, the chances of death by anything are statistically very low. I don’t see how that’s relevant. If we increase the current (very small) risk of death among 20-25 year olds by 20% to a still small risk of death, I think that’s still a big deal.

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I addressed all this in my post

Unfortunately, that’s not likely to happen because we got a shit-for-brains president and a corrupt political system that doesn’t give a single fuck about working class citizens

That’s not what I’m saying, it’s the situation we find ourselves in because of what I just stated above

No. I’m sorry to say you did have covid, but you seemed to be doing ok. It might have been that zikzak, jbro and I were building you a quarantine cabin or something - I don’t remember the details or if anything made any sense.

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Really disappointed that my volume of posting in this thread doesn’t get me a spot in your dream.

Bullshit imo

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Now I’ll probably have spidercrab nightmares. That’d be ok though. I have dreams with monsters all the time. When I woke up this morning my wife said I was breathing wildly and I said “I was fighting ghosts”. That’s not unusual. The covid dream was earlier. I probably got up from it to pee because I’m an old man.

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I think a lot of this comes down to semantics that people were getting tripped up on.

Let’s take the far extreme and 70% of the population never leaves the house for the entire duration of covid. Of course they’re out of the population that could get covid. That’s just basic common sense.

Now we know that’s not realistic. But maybe it’s realistic to say 50% of the population only goes to the grocery store and stuff like a park or the beach, where they take precautions in both places. So of course that’s going to reduce the effective pool a decent amount.

But then the argument is eventually those people will get complacent or somehow be forced back into the pool (like sending kids back to school). Maybe. But maybe not. Or most likely some of both.

Maybe we can somehow make it to a vaccine or the thing will even die out only having infected 20-30% of the population - as the rest stay isolated. It’s a huge unknown because we’re in completely uncharted territory.

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