There isn’t enough testing for us to catch 78k cases routinely right now.
The problem is the SDI curve impact on spread is probably S curve shaped though probably not symmetrical.
I imagine that below some SDI there is no further spread, as it maxes out but it’s probably fairly steep leading into a plateau range. Then fairly shallow response as the SDI increases through the flatten the curve range and then steep at the crush range.
It won’t be 60% because parents will react. But if we just left them in school it would be possible
The ONLY thing limiting this virus is our behavior. Government can restrict behavior options to a certain extent by minimizing crowds and mandating masks. In the absence of that leadership, the trailing indicators of sickness and death will self regulate the spread but with much worse consequences than doing it proactively.
Yeah, that sounds accurate to me. North Carolina is an extremely good example of that phenomenon. It has horrible sustained bad SDI but hasn’t ever spiked secondarily above the perceived peak. My goal with SDI is to possibly predict that case ‘cap’ in each place, as in what’s the peak going to be at really bad SDI under current testing conditions?
Nevada is doing something similar to North Carolina, where it looks like there isn’t an explosion beyond the peak. Idaho and Utah fall into that as well off the top of my head. Part of that may be due to new people getting infected at a lower number than people who are recovering each day (a pattern that had been going on for months in Nevada prior to the explosion that came out of OFB/4th of July).
I think Nevada is just exporting their cases.
That, too.
Yer pony is late for school
6 Likes
You mean 1/2 as much according to scientists as they are half as likely to spread when under 10 years old.
The 10% vs 50% being the index case is bullshit because it was when schools were closed so adults were much more likely to be exposed first than kids. Now that will change.
10+ are just as much spreaders as adults and under 10 1/2 as likely according to best known today…put all those 4th-12th graders (plus college!!) in schools again and they’ll be the index cases much more
Now show us the pic without telephoto lens…
Getting a lot of red their. I’m not too confident in drop with testing level at best. Especially outside CA.
Maybe this will be informative to someone and hopefully I did all the calculations right. The first set of data is new weekly cases since the peak, with increase/decrease percentage from the peak of 7/15-7/21 vs. 7/29-8/4, increase/decrease from 7/15-7/21 vs. 7/22-7/28, and increase decrease from 7/22-7/28 vs. 7/29-8/4. The second data set is testing and increase/decrease from those same periods. You’ll be able to easily see who’s up and down on testing as well as new cases and whether they look legit. It’s not quite the same idea as goofy’s numbers, but it’s in the same vein. I’ve also added this into the google sheet if anyone’s following that and wants to see the data side by side.
New Cases Weekly Data Set
| New Cases Weekly Data Since Officially Peak Week 7/15-7/21 | 7/15-7/21 | 7/22-7/28 | 7/29-8/4 | Increase 19-21 | Increase 19-20 | Increase 20-21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week (from covidtracking.com) | Week 19 | Week 20 | Week 21 | Week 19-21 | Week 19-20 | Week 20-21 |
| End of Week Total | 462850 | 451014 | 416887 | -11.0% | -2.6% | -8.2% |
| California | 64261 | 65781 | 52877 | -21.5% | 2.3% | -24.4% |
| Texas | 66881 | 52526 | 56916 | -17.5% | -27.3% | 7.7% |
| Florida | 78205 | 72143 | 55353 | -41.3% | -8.4% | -30.3% |
| Arizona | 20586 | 17251 | 14571 | -41.3% | -19.3% | -18.4% |
| Georgia | 25025 | 26064 | 22894 | -9.3% | 4.0% | -13.8% |
| North Carolina | 13377 | 13226 | 12074 | -10.8% | -1.1% | -9.5% |
| South Carolina | 12948 | 9772 | 10081 | -28.4% | -32.5% | 3.1% |
| Tennessee | 15156 | 14545 | 15952 | 5.0% | -4.2% | 8.8% |
| New York | 5006 | 4697 | 4711 | -6.3% | -6.6% | 0.3% |
| Illinois | 8240 | 10095 | 11020 | 25.2% | 18.4% | 8.4% |
| Alabama | 13103 | 12008 | 11336 | -15.6% | -9.1% | -5.9% |
| Ohio | 9220 | 9282 | 8609 | -7.1% | 0.7% | -7.8% |
| Louisiana | 14541 | 14455 | 13433 | -8.2% | -0.6% | -7.6% |
| Virginia | 6928 | 7623 | 7257 | 4.5% | 9.1% | -5.0% |
| Arkansas | 4922 | 5516 | 5200 | 5.3% | 10.8% | -6.1% |
| Utah | 4534 | 3843 | 3052 | -48.6% | -18.0% | -25.9% |
| Pennsylvania | 6094 | 6619 | 5625 | -8.3% | 7.9% | -17.7% |
| Mississippi | 8022 | 8775 | 7900 | -1.5% | 8.6% | -11.1% |
| Washington | 5986 | 5578 | 5394 | -11.0% | -7.3% | -3.4% |
| Maryland | 5285 | 5979 | 6330 | 16.5% | 11.6% | 5.5% |
| Minnesota | 4287 | 4824 | 4881 | 12.2% | 11.1% | 1.2% |
| Oklahoma | 3695 | 8324 | 5688 | 35.0% | 55.6% | -46.3% |
| Nevada | 7909 | 7408 | 7243 | -9.2% | -6.8% | -2.3% |
| New Jersey | 1341 | 3049 | 2675 | 49.9% | 56.0% | -14.0% |
| Iowa | 3620 | 3283 | 3265 | -10.9% | -10.3% | -0.6% |
| Wisconsin | 6487 | 6228 | 6107 | -6.2% | -4.2% | -2.0% |
| Indiana | 5211 | 5762 | 5577 | 6.6% | 9.6% | -3.3% |
| Michigan | 5189 | 4901 | 5217 | 0.5% | -5.9% | 6.1% |
| Missouri | 5336 | 7339 | 11979 | 55.5% | 27.3% | 38.7% |
| Massachusetts | 1903 | 2149 | 3021 | 37.0% | 11.4% | 28.9% |
| Colorado | 3324 | 3999 | 3403 | 2.3% | 16.9% | -17.5% |
| Kentucky | 3837 | 4066 | 4071 | 5.7% | 5.6% | 0.1% |
| Oregon | 2334 | 2277 | 2283 | -2.2% | -2.5% | 0.3% |
| Nebraska | 1448 | 2052 | 2057 | 29.6% | 29.4% | 0.2% |
| Kansas | 3276 | 2838 | 2704 | -21.2% | -15.4% | -5.0% |
| New Mexico | 1924 | 2487 | 1628 | -18.2% | 22.6% | -52.8% |
| Idaho | 3864 | 3428 | 2981 | -29.6% | -12.7% | -15.0% |
| Puerto Rico | 2818 | 2900 | 3484 | 19.1% | 2.8% | 16.8% |
| Connecticut | 566 | 981 | 1033 | 45.2% | 42.3% | 5.0% |
| Delaware | 777 | 730 | 661 | -17.5% | -6.4% | -10.4% |
| South Dakota | 447 | 473 | 587 | 23.9% | 5.5% | 19.4% |
| Rhode Island | 398 | 739 | 665 | 40.2% | 46.1% | -11.1% |
| District of Columbia | 481 | 518 | 453 | -6.2% | 7.1% | -14.3% |
| West Virginia | 792 | 974 | 878 | 9.8% | 18.7% | -10.9% |
| New Hampshire | 181 | 251 | 160 | -13.1% | 27.9% | -56.9% |
| North Dakota | 714 | 925 | 792 | 9.8% | 22.8% | -16.8% |
| Maine | 167 | 115 | 137 | -21.9% | -45.2% | 16.1% |
| Wyoming | 287 | 351 | 295 | 2.7% | 18.2% | -19.0% |
| Montana | 760 | 683 | 839 | 9.4% | -11.3% | 18.6% |
| Alaska | 946 | 825 | 775 | -22.1% | -14.7% | -6.5% |
| Hawaii | 150 | 318 | 737 | 79.6% | 52.8% | 56.9% |
| Vermont | 61 | 39 | 26 | -134.6% | -56.4% | -50.0% |
Testing Weekly Data Set
| Tests Weekly Data Since Officially Peak Week 7/15-7/21 | 7/15-7/21 | 7/22-7/28 | 7/29-8/4 | Increase 19-21 | Increase 19-20 | Incraease 20-21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week (from covidtracking.com) | Week 19 | Week 20 | Week 21 | Week 19-21 | Week 19-20 | Week 20-21 |
| End of Week Total | 5454929 | 5639799 | 5431206 | -0.4% | 3.3% | -3.8% |
| California | 861977 | 880934 | 887847 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Texas | 444894 | 433352 | 407922 | -9.1% | -2.7% | -6.2% |
| Florida | 414507 | 380549 | 304159 | -36.3% | -8.9% | -25.1% |
| Arizona | 85723 | 83265 | 80313 | -6.7% | -3.0% | -3.7% |
| Georgia | 164257 | 192035 | 177086 | 7.2% | 14.5% | -8.4% |
| North Carolina | 204151 | 204543 | 190486 | -7.2% | 0.2% | -7.4% |
| South Carolina | 81212 | 71637 | 70127 | -15.8% | -13.4% | -2.2% |
| Tennessee | 166345 | 173219 | 181198 | 8.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% |
| New York | 446054 | 453565 | 469221 | 4.9% | 1.7% | 3.3% |
| Illinois | 267457 | 261678 | 278969 | 4.1% | -2.2% | 6.2% |
| Alabama | 71292 | 65018 | 56902 | -25.3% | -9.6% | -14.3% |
| Ohio | 156274 | 198710 | 157079 | 0.5% | 21.4% | -26.5% |
| Louisiana | 146507 | 153342 | 173553 | 15.6% | 4.5% | 11.6% |
| Virginia | 109242 | 119318 | 108628 | -0.6% | 8.4% | -9.8% |
| Arkansas | 49336 | 50271 | 43953 | -12.2% | 1.9% | -14.4% |
| Utah | 50922 | 39066 | 30447 | -67.2% | -30.3% | -28.3% |
| Pennsylvania | 108480 | 113397 | 102369 | -6.0% | 4.3% | -10.8% |
| Mississippi | 44985 | 37935 | 30658 | -46.7% | -18.6% | -23.7% |
| Washington | 118080 | 106950 | 75518 | -56.4% | -10.4% | -41.6% |
| Maryland | 98298 | 103889 | 104090 | 5.6% | 5.4% | 0.2% |
| Minnesota | 99245 | 103129 | 83000 | -19.6% | 3.8% | -24.3% |
| Oklahoma | 56196 | 91636 | 68150 | 17.5% | 38.7% | -34.5% |
| Nevada | 38642 | 52064 | 38201 | -1.2% | 25.8% | -36.3% |
| New Jersey | 96724 | 166349 | 180632 | 46.5% | 41.9% | 7.9% |
| Iowa | 42025 | 35002 | 32936 | -27.6% | -20.1% | -6.3% |
| Wisconsin | 83854 | 92233 | 97385 | 13.9% | 9.1% | 5.3% |
| Indiana | 66396 | 72004 | 68209 | 2.7% | 7.8% | -5.6% |
| Michigan | 195589 | 198507 | 226533 | 13.7% | 1.5% | 12.4% |
| Missouri | 75217 | 72604 | 68599 | -9.6% | -3.6% | -5.8% |
| Massachusetts | 80967 | 81935 | 101160 | 20.0% | 1.2% | 19.0% |
| Colorado | 46344 | 49131 | 51573 | 10.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% |
| Kentucky | 53137 | 49020 | 50142 | -6.0% | -8.4% | 2.2% |
| Oregon | 39807 | 42393 | 32258 | -23.4% | 6.1% | -31.4% |
| Nebraska | 22206 | 22662 | 22756 | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Kansas | 30356 | 17405 | 22903 | -32.5% | -74.4% | 24.0% |
| New Mexico | 52142 | 52393 | 48920 | -6.6% | 0.5% | -7.1% |
| Idaho | 20787 | 19646 | 17061 | -21.8% | -5.8% | -15.2% |
| Puerto Rico | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Connecticut | 71076 | 89851 | 83583 | 15.0% | 20.9% | -7.5% |
| Delaware | 16747 | 16276 | 14685 | -14.0% | -2.9% | -10.8% |
| South Dakota | 7681 | 7646 | 7890 | 2.6% | -0.5% | 3.1% |
| Rhode Island | 10306 | 15996 | 10993 | 6.2% | 35.6% | -45.5% |
| District of Columbia | 21795 | 22311 | 22105 | 1.4% | 2.3% | -0.9% |
| West Virginia | 26314 | 29518 | 28595 | 8.0% | 10.9% | -3.2% |
| New Hampshire | 8794 | 11261 | 8753 | -0.5% | 21.9% | -28.7% |
| North Dakota | 12260 | 12753 | 10424 | -17.6% | 3.9% | -22.3% |
| Maine | 16768 | 16857 | 16661 | -0.6% | 0.5% | -1.2% |
| Wyoming | 4137 | 6615 | 4463 | 7.3% | 37.5% | -48.2% |
| Montana | 19606 | 20406 | 19828 | 1.1% | 3.9% | -2.9% |
| Alaska | 31782 | 35249 | 38774 | 18.0% | 9.8% | 9.1% |
| Hawaii | 10713 | 7360 | 16569 | 35.3% | -45.6% | 55.6% |
| Vermont | 7323 | 6914 | 6940 | -5.5% | -5.9% | 0.4% |
Editing to add this.
These are the places I think are legitimately going down in cases based on testing spread even if the cases are increasing in a raw data way:
U.S. as a whole, California, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, New York, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, Kentucky, Kansas, New Mexico, D.C., West Virginia, New Hampshire, Alaska, and Vermont
Substantially the Same As Previous Week (0-2 percent spread between testing and new cases):
Nebraska, Idaho, Delaware, and Hawaii
Cases Going Up (2-10 percent spread between testing and new cases):
South Carolina, Tennessee, Illinois, Alabama, Virginia, Arkansas, Utah, Maryland, Iowa, Indiana, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and North Dakota
Cases Going Way Up (more than 10 percent spread between testing and new cases):
Texas, Ohio, Mississippi, Washington, Minnesota (might be off due to them pulling 173k tests during this measurement period), Nevada, Missouri, Oregon, South Dakota, Rhode Island, Maine, Wyoming, and Montana
This did not factor in whether new cases are being pushed into a different measurement period than when the test happened, which has happened in some places.
wtf happened in TX? A week or so ago they were the lowest on the chart, did they up testing or loosen restrictions again?
1 Like
https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1290759259471454211
Odd way to phrase things when we’re pushing up against 160,000 dead.
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America = the stock market. Peasant lives dont matter.
6 Likes
I’d love to be optimistic about schools, but in particular I worry that the viral load at school is going to be worse than the typical exposure we’ve seen in kids thus-far. Yeah, kids are resilient. But how well can their system handle circulated AC in a dense school environment with 5-10% positive cases and inevitably-low mask usage?
Just another area where the slightest bit of national leadership could have prevented so much suffering.
1 Like
McDonalds giving away free faces masks in the UK
3 Likes
The y axis changed when other states started declining cases.
Prediction: Trump is going to announce a policy of not testing people under the age of, say, 35-40 in an effort to suppress numbers.
He made some vague statement in his presser yesterday about how we need “focused testing”, and how young people don’t get sick from it. He’s been saying for weeks that we do too much testing. This “second wave” has been driven by younger people getting sick. And he’s pushing for schools reopening which is going to make the numbers explode among young people.
All he needs to do is make it a talking point and he’ll have a dozen red states making it their policies.