https://twitter.com/DWUhlfelderLaw/status/1290321741517139974?s=20
https://twitter.com/DWUhlfelderLaw/status/1290321897788452870?s=20
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Ooh, should have seen that episode coming from the writers. We’ve seen the “Protesters spread the 'rona”, and now we can move on to “Journalists are 'rona spreading terrorists”.
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I must not be understanding this because my answer doesn’t jive with the people I would expect to be in agreement with.
There is a lot more optimism here than I would have thought.
It’s not optimism I just think we’re almost all pozzed by then, cases dwindling because not many left.
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I just realized this was hypothetical about next August 3rd and I fixed my vote. I guess I’m an optimist too!
Yeah either there is a working vaccine or we all had it by then
Went in blind and glad my answer lined up with @Danspartan I’m basically science man at this point
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The only problem with the “we all had it” argument is that we need to average like 800,000 infections a day between now and then for that to actually be reality. I do think a vaccine is likely to be in play by next August.
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Yeah same here. Lowest option for me too
Unless we find out that only some people are susceptible to the virus or that only some people end up being really contagious, I just don’t see how we get under 20k cases per day. The virus is everywhere now, and there’s just too many people. Maybe if biden wins and we get enough testing capacity and a real contact tracing program, and everyone takes mask mandates/shutdowns seriously, well be ok.
I guess the other optimistic path is that we see schools open and nothing happen in europe, while huge outbreaks happen at every in person school in the US, finally getting people to understand what works.
My vote was based on Biden winning and implementing a nationwide lockdown instead of letting states pick and choose how to respond. I guess I should have factored SCOTUS ruling 5-4 that Presidents can’t do that because reasons but I chose to be optimistic.
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We’ve already been under 20k cases in a day not that long ago. I think we’re so used to the machine gun fire of 50k+ cases per day that people are forgetting 20k is an absolutely huge daily number.
On June 8, it was 16,690 daily new cases and June 9, it was 15,936. On June 15, it was 18,512. We left 30k cases per day behind on June 23, 40k on June 30, 50k on July 7, and 60k on July 14. In the last week, we are finally below 70k on average and this morning I saw a headline that said ‘lowest daily case number in weeks’ or something similar. I’m assuming it was talking about yesterday, when Texas didn’t report. Based on Texas’s usual numbers, it would have been a little below July 12’s numbers. I think this week is going to tell us a lot about what’s going on.
RE: anti-vaccine propaganda, I can tell you that there is a pro-COVID vaccine PSA currently in production in LA. So at least someone is thinking about countering the morons.
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I think < 20k is definitely possible. NY clipping at what, 500 cases a day after going nuclear and currently is pretty much open for business. It has something like 16% of the population of the US, and because I’m so good at math, that means we can “easily” get to like 4k cases per day ldo.
My personal take is that I am skeptical that we can ever consistently get below 10,000 new cases a day without further restriction or a vaccine. We are probably not adding new restrictions ever if 70k+ cases a day doesn’t do it. Maybe Biden does it, who knows. Then there is a question of whether or not there is a usable vaccine in a year and then there is the question of will enough people take it to slow down the disease.
Hitting herd immunity with this thing seems like a complete pipe dream. At minimum we need what 200,000,000 infected? Even the wildest predictions to this point have us at what 30-40,000,000? So we are 1/5 of the way there at best. I don’t see us getting there in a year. You would need to average hundreds of thousands a day for the entire next year to accomplish that. Add on top the fact we don’t know if you get long term immunity after having it and that makes it even less probable.
Now will that make for a less fertile pool of people to infect? Of course. But we are so far away from a less than 1k average it seems out of reach to me. Oklahoma which is a tiny state has a 7DMA of around 1000 right now.
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Ah, a coordinated campaign out of Hollywood to promote the vaccine. Just more proof of a liberal, Soros-backed conspiracy!
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The problem with this study is that it was done when the numbers of infections in Saxony were pretty low already. I could have done a study about Ebola and told everyone that students and teachers are not a source of infection. Yeah no shit if nobody has it how can you spread it. Unfortunately its all it takes these days to convince people its not so bad. We will see what happens if one student brings back this stuff from the holidays and goes to school for few days before he has a postive test.
Yeah obv. I’m being a bit flippant there, and while I know it is definitely possible, I don’t consider it likely. I also agree that herd immunity is a bust, for the simple fact that we’re finding it to be improbable that there is permanent (or even long term) immunity conveyed by infection. So my understanding is that we’d need to keep the infections constantly rolling to keep a large enough percentage of the population “currently immune”. Not a scientist though, and vaccine availability and efficacy would factor in as well.
Not a fan of herd immunity anymore. Today I read they are starting now research on the longterm effects. For example if you age faster because of the virus. The study will last 24 month but the leader of the study already said that you need to examine people who had Covid after 5-10 years. Not sure I want to take the gamble of herd immunity without fully knowing the consequences.
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Can someone who knows more about this stuff explain what the consequences of let’s say 50% of the population getting a vaccine and 50% not? Are the protections those of us who get vaccinated enjoy reduced by the 50% who do not? As in it gives the virus more chance to mutate and the vaccine to be less useful if it is still circulating? I assume on the flip side the 50% unvaccinated get to enjoy the benefits of the rest of us being vaccinated because it makes them less likely to get infected?