I want to go back to being a sweet summer child before I read these responses.
Right wing talking points are always shitty but effective, level one thinking. The mortality rate is down, thus it’s the flu, thus get the fuck out there and open for business.
So wouldn’t it all be explained if it’s aerosolized but needs a certain concentration to infect, thus we see it primarily spread with prolonged contact without masks, especially indoors?
We know it’s the best health care system because it turns the highest profits of any HC system globally.
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Would the excess-deaths statistics be a way to test this theory? Look at the change in excess deaths, see if the percent is increasing along with the rise in cases in these areas?
Gotta say it’s Christmas in July with all the red and green. Is that bad?
The fact that he has no sane cause of action here aside, he has no idea how much lawsuits cost if he thinks $125K is anywhere close to what he’d need in a case like this. He’ll need closer to an order of magnitude more.
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Yes but it’s a very lagging indicator. Essentially it’s an underestimate as currently done as well as I’m fairly confident that baseline deaths should be lower.
Car accidents and other communicable disease causes of death should be way down starting in March but to my knowledge that is not factored in. (Yes some deaths may go up from care avoidance or care rationing in extreme cases like NYC though one can argue those are covid related). Still I think the drops on other areas dwarf these special cases.
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People really have no clue how expensive litigation is. Litigation is a smallish percentage of my firm’s work, but we recently started providing detailed estimates as to how much litigation would cost when clients want to sue some local government or agency over a permitting matter. Most of them back down after we explain it to them. With issues of permitting, it’s so much smarter to do things right up from and maintain good relationships with local officials so you can keep things out of court.
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Here is a simple 9 day offset (today’s death vs 9 days ago cases) and the calculated CFR which has been trending down the whole time (pick your favorite reason).
I have some actual consulting work this week but when I get a chance I want to look at some of the individual states.
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Took a quick look at states before starting work. The 9 day offset CFRs are all over the map. PA and CT have run 6-7%. NY has drifted down to about 2%. A lot of the current biggies are down around 1%.
Lots of noise in places that have dumped batches of deaths in due to reclassification.
Basically it’s a mess and makes me think the biggest difference between states is likely reporting rules. Wouldn’t it be nice if someone, say the CDC was standardizing these things.
The gradual downtrend is likely testing.
USA: Hold my beer
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- Virus isn’t real
- Virus is real, but not very widespread
- Virus is real and widespread, but not very dangerous
- Virus is real, widespread, and dangerous; but is totally out of control now so we might as well just accept it
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Paywalled, but the gist of it is we’re fucked
The California coronavirus outlook worsened over the holiday weekend, as hospitalizations continued to rise and more counties were added Sunday to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s COVID-19 watch list, which is now at its highest level since the pandemic began.
The rate at which coronavirus tests in California are coming back positive has jumped 42% over the last two weeks, according to data published on the Los Angeles Times’ California coronavirus tracker. An increasing rate of positive test results is an indication that disease transmission is worsening.
The Fourth of July marked the 15th consecutive day that California tallied record hospitalization numbers of confirmed coronavirus patients. On Saturday, the state recorded 5,669 patients with confirmed coronavirus infections in California hospitals—an increase of 62% over the previous two weeks.
On June 27, just a week earlier, the state had reported 4,498 hospitalized patients with confirmed cases of COVID-19. On June 20, the number was 3,494.
The number of intensive care unit patients statewide with confirmed coronavirus infections is up 63% over the last three weeks. On Saturday, there were 1,711 people with confirmed coronavirus infections in the ICU; on the previous Saturday, there were 1,376; the week before that, there were 1,149; and on June 13, there were 1,049.
And Los Angeles County officials said Sunday that the holiday weekend saw the highest single-day count of new cases since the pandemic began. More than 3,200 new cases were reported in the county on Friday.
Hospitalizations of patients with confirmed coronavirus infections in Los Angeles County have jumped nearly 50% in the last three weeks. On Saturday, there were 1,921 patients in L.A. County hospitals with confirmed coronavirus infections; seven days earlier, there were 1,710; the week before that, there were 1,453; and the week prior to that, there were 1,285.
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