COVID-19: Chapter 5 - BACK TO SCHOOL

Germans are known the world over for being very rules oriented. It’s one of those stereotypes that has a ton of truth baked into IME (and I do have some experience dealing with German companies).

Meanwhile Americans are the opposite. Some german general in WW2 said that the trouble with understanding American battle doctrine was that we hadn’t read the manual and didn’t follow it. This also has a massive amount of truth baked into it.

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They don’t own you. You can just get that other shot. Would mess with their study but f em

How did y’all get into these studies? I’m interested.

This study is using my kids’ pediatrician’s office as a site and they emailed all the parents a few weeks ago asking who’d be interested. There’s also an NIH interest list we’re on, but haven’t heard from that.

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Thanks, I signed up on the NIH list. I get exposed frequently, so I’d guess I’d be a good candidate.

Concussions prevented him from fulfilling his potential as the next Mario Lemieux but us Rangers fans can remember that one season where he made the All-Star team as a Ranger.


Anyway, Czech government denying that this is the second wave. This is contradicted by the R0 rising to 1.3. Looks like they’re trying to maintain a politically effective position. If they overreact, people bitch that the restrictions were for nothing. If they underreact, lots of people die and the people accuse them of being too slow. Seems like they’re trying to find the politically beneficial solution over the healthiest solution. Fucking ANO.

Nick, Vladdie, Murph and all showed the legion of Doom to be frauds.

Good chance that rolling average is going to 1000 next week.

Day slope after testing plateaus several days ago. Just think how steep it really is.

Always start with the raw data and do your calcs before believing someone else’s.

If you can’t back engineer what they are doing then you can assume shenanigans or incompetence.

Usually it’s incompetence but in this case shenanigans may be the lead horse. I’ve built my whole career on finding others calculation errors (yeah I’m that guy). This is something else.

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All of this is why generally five years is a very aggressive timeline. 18 months is already insane. Hopefully we can capture 90% of the safety risk and 70% of the efficacy risk in that truncates schedule.

Normally for approval safety would need to be very high 90s and lasting efficacy not too far behind. Agree we need to go faster but there will be trade offs and risk. Hopefully that just means multiple shots over time.

By the way, I dump on Lindros because I think he was a bit of a dirty player. In real life he seems like a nice enough dude, I see him occasionally in Toronto on the street and he usually smiles and says hello. I’m sure it can be annoying to be a famous hockey player in Toronto.

Another covid casualty

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I’ve stopped seeing any of the anti-mask people around. I’m gonna assume they feel like wearing a mask in the dog park is tyranny, so they’re avoiding the dog park.

New C.D.C. Guidance for Reopening Schools Takes a Political Tone

The top U.S. public health agency issued a full-throated call to reopen schools in a package of new “resources and tools” posted on its website Thursday night that opened with a statement that sounded more like a political speech than a scientific document, listing numerous benefits for children of being in school and downplaying the potential health risks.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published the new guidance two weeks after President Trump criticized its earlier recommendations on school reopenings as “very tough and expensive,” ramping up what had already been an anguished national debate over the question of how soon children should return to classrooms. As the president was criticizing the initial C.D.C. recommendations, a document from the agency surfaced that detailed the risks of reopening and the steps that districts were taking to minimize those risks.

“Reopening schools creates opportunity to invest in the education, well-being, and future of one of America’s greatest assets — our children — while taking every precaution to protect students, teachers, staff and all their families,” the new opening statement said.

The package of materials began with the opening statement, titled “The Importance of Reopening America’s Schools This Fall,” and repeatedly described children as being at low risk for being infected by or transmitting the coronavirus, even though the science on both aspects is far from settled.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1286665571443134464

Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama are all gunning for highest per capita mortality.

Plot is 7da of per capita new cases x recent estimated CFR

Up and to the right is bad.

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I was in Germany for 3 weeks and only have a couple trivial anecdotes, but that stereotype was reinforced for me when I was there.

When I was watching a movie which recreated the Nuremberg Trials, one of the American prosecutors is trying to understand how ordinary Germans fell in line for Nazism.

Someone responds with, among other factors, “Germans do as they’re told.”