A lot of state death numbers are really heading the wrong direction. We have talked extensively about Florida/Texas/Arizona/Cali for good reason but Georgia/Alabama/S. Carolina are over 200 combined today. Seems not good with cases either still rising or not off their highs in these places also.
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That’s pretty much what that article I posted said going off of memory.
Pool testing won’t change the data.
It just processes tests faster, in theory.
But if 20% are positive like we see right now, then only 10.74% of the time will all 10 in a pool be negative.
So 90% of the time you are doing 11 tests instead of 10 tests. Only 10% do you do just one test.
So 9x11=99 + 1x1 = 100 tests for 100 samples so same results with pooling or not pooling.
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North Dakota appears on its way to becoming a hotspot. I’m gonna take a wild guess that a good chunk of the people who went down to Rushmore were from North Dakota.
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We need Any (Lab) Test, the company with the unnecessary parentheses, to step up their game.
Anecdote: One day I was in the car with dlk9s jr and he randomly asked me from the back seat, “Are you hairy?”
I was all like wtf have you ever looked at me, then he pointed to the LED sign outside an Any (Lab) Test facility, which read, cryptically, “R U Hairy?”
We haven’t seen that message since. It has become a meme in our household.
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I understand that there are reasons. But there shouldn’t be reasons. We should find a way to make it work as a country.
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If only there was some magical law that allowed the President to order companies to produce things like reagents when there was a shortage, some kind of…I don’t know…production act or something. Maybe we could even use it for defense!
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This isn’t surprising. Here’s the graph from 21 days ago for plotting new cases (not population adjusted) vs. lagged CFR estimate for each state:
Don’t sleep on Louisiana.
My own state of Ohio is surprising, though, in that we don’t seem to be running nearly as high on deaths as I would have expected. Fingers crossed that continues.
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Oh definitely
And we should have made that a priority in January, then in February, then in March, then in …
Maybe by the end of January 2021 we will finally do it.
Last night Brian Williams said something like Trump gave an ‘excellent’ press conference yesterday for the beginning of April.
It seems likely, barring any funny business, that in the next couple weeks we are going to have three states (CA/FL/TX) with a 7DMA of 200+ each and a lot of other states in the 50-100 range or worse including Louisiana which as you mentioned is going the wrong way fast.
And if states continue to do next to nothing or even worse by reopening school, having fall sports, etc. then there really is no hope of this getting much better. OFB has been an unmitigated disaster but the governors of these states running huge numbers were also all part of the cheerleading squad for it so it’s hard to see them reversing course significantly. Something is going to have to give at some point though.
Will something have to give? Something hasn’t given for these states at 150 or so daily deaths. I highly doubt something gives at 200, or 300, or 500.
This analysis is now 6 days old. Here’s what it has for the next 3 weeks:
Original 7DMA: 767
7DMA after a week (tomorrow): 1064
7DMA after 2 weeeks: 1362
after 3 weeks: 1659
after a month (peak): 1957
However for an upward slope, obviously it matters if you take 7DMA looking backward 7 days from the date in question vs. 7DMA when centered over the date in question - which you don’t know unitl 3.5 days later. So in reality the first number might be pointing to the 7DMA in 4 days.
As we get closer to the peak that difference should be less.
That’s what I mean ultimately. Either a lot of governors are going to have to shut down or there is going to be widespread carnage. There is no scenario where we stay OFB and everything turns out fine.
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Pooling only makes sense when the frequency is low. You need a high proportion of your pools to come out negative otherwise what is the point other than a modest decline in total tests run with the trade off that there is an added delay in identifying individual results.
Also if the pooling is substantial there has to be a dilution effect which necessarily increases the detection threshold which means more false negatives.
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It seems likely we won’t have any weekdays below 1000 deaths at any point in the near future so I doubt you are that far off. I imagine if you move all those predictions forward 3-4 days (for the reasons you mention) you will have it about nailed.
Newsom did a great job in the very beginning but went with this stupid fucking phased reopening plan and now california’s numbers are dismal. Not that a republican would’ve done any better, but this guy is a buffoon. I have zero confidence in the leadership of this state.
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Not adjusting for population and tests makes a lot of these graphs pretty dumb. Like inside the gold medalists group there - CA has done about 10 times as many tests as AZ, so instead of CA looking a time and a half as bad as AZ, AZ should look about 7 times as bad as CA.
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Yeah the big question is how high we get in deaths/day before this FL/AZ/TX peaks.
The only excellent press conference would be a quick pep talk by the president (any president) and then turning the podium over to Fauci Et al (but not Deborah Scarfo)
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