Just got caught up on a couple hundred posts so this is a bit late, but I can answer the question of what NJ is doing effectively. Facemasks are required in every public building. They are required outdoors when distancing is not possible. Compliance is near 100% from what I’ve seen. Gyms are not open. Restaurants are outdoor/pickup only. If you ask the Republicans, our Governor is a tyrannical dictator. But he has turned the state’s covid trajectory around and kept it manageable.
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They processed only 50,000 tests to get 9,440 positives. So about 19% positive. That is trending down a bit but Tuesday has typically been one of their lower case reporting days for some reason. Last Tuesday had only 9,100 new cases so today’s number actually is a week over week increase.
ETA - Today is actually a record for both deaths and cases for a Tuesday for Florida. So I don’t think you can take today’s data as much of a downward trend. They also aren’t running anywhere near enough tests.
Wisconsin smashes it’s old record and goes over 1k for the first time with 1,117 new cases today. 13,000 or so tests ran so still a sub 10% positivity rate although it does appear to be climbing.
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These are the places that I think at one time had bent their curve after having extreme amounts of cases. The only one I think is still doing astonishingly well is New Jersey (one of a small handful of states still appearing to be on decline). Several of these places probably would have crushed the curve if they’d gone just two weeks longer. If NY and NJ went two weeks longer they’d probably have very very low caseloads right now. You’ll be able to easily see what seems to cause the ‘good’ and ‘bad’. Maybe you can make more sense of it than me, but I think we’re still a solid 2-3 weeks away from knowing if really good performance early means you can put the genie back in the bottle after some poor behavior.
I haven’t seen the numbers for Arizona yet today (I use 1point3acres for consistency), but their recent performance suggests it’s possible. Texas is a better case for a place a little later to the party and how quickly it starts lowering. Soon we’re going to need to see how quickly rebounds can get under control in places that performed well, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned over the last 6 weeks it’s that once places open for real after long shut downs they don’t want to close again. Once they open the bottle, they might not want to get the genie back in.
As an FYI, I might be revising PA to 35+ target SDI guess later this week. Rhode Island might move down to 30+ in that same measurement period.
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That’s pretty much what I expected to see. I think the single biggest change any place can make is not allowing any indoor dining/bars. Sorry casinos, you’re a very dangerous place right now…
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Dude dems absolutely need just hire the same people Republicans do for ads. They’re soooooooo much better. That was fucking incredible
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As is always pointed out mitch only has this power because all the other Republicans give it to him. It’s not one guy it’s the whole party. Only takes like 5 of them to remove him from the position. They just use him for cover.
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Oklahoma now on day 3 of having a “technical glitch” prevent them from releasing data. Coincidentally the school board is voting today on whether or not to start school normally on August 10th.
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Not sure if anyone else watches All Gas No Breaks, but this will both help and hurt your COVID depression.
All Gas no Brakes - 4th of July https://youtu.be/EbxwGi8bTO8
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They keep him because he’s the procedure/parliamentary king. No one else is as shameless and soulless as him. I’m gonna take a wild guess and say Thune would probably be easier to work with than him when the time comes. But that’s not saying much.
Just by eyeball I’m imagining that an SDI requires 3 weeks to produce a real change. I’d think that is some of the normal lags plus it probably takes a couple of infection cycles to make the number changes obvious.
Also looks like your running just above or below your targets gives a fairly flat curve.
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For the SDI, yeah, I think in general it takes about 3 weeks to see the positive early effects and about 4 for them to be easily noticeable (but this is again based on early pandemic watching and not after 6+ weeks in many places of bad behavior). So, it’s 3-4 weeks to turn ‘good’, and 2 weeks to turn ‘bad’, unless you had a lot of good early or often. At that point, I think it begins to mirror the ‘good’ turn with 3-4 weeks before negative effects start showing again. I just think we’re still another 2-3 weeks out before any real conclusions can be made about any improvements. By then, we might have pool testing results as the norm meaning all of this might become worthless again…
For the above/below target statement, yeah, that’s exactly what the target SDI is. It’s the minimum amount required to ‘slow’ spread. I think to bend it, you need to be at least 4 weeks 10+ above the target SDI minimum. To crush it, I think you need to be 20+ above for 6 weeks or 30+ above for 4 minimum. That’s why I think it took so long for some of the sparse places to become hotspots again. They were well above their target early, even if not for that long and it made a huge difference.
To me, the real outliers are Rhode Island and Connecticut. They are population dense, but their problems have been very slow to return despite relatively bad SDI numbers based on target guesses. Since MA has done largely okay until recently, that might be why Rhode Island’s been doing okay. I think early response might have been what saved Connecticut (one of the best state responses in the country) but still think we need more data.
Jfc
I think where we disagree is that you see this as something being corporate and soulless when it’s really just the money people finally figuring out how to invest in good chefs and make really good food profitable.
This is about a robust set of back end services being available to visionaries and random enthusiasts. Does it mean they are less greasy? Yes. I feel like most of the greasy spoons who produced anything resembling and excellent product would still crush it in this environment.
Basically this is about the supply chain for restaurants changing, which incentivizes a restaurant supply chain to build several 1-5 store concepts in one metro and develop the ability to source IN THAT CITY instead of building a 500 store concept that has at least one location in every city over 10,000 in the country. The first one has lower food cost, a better product, and can charge more money. It’s a superior business in ever possible way and it’s crushing the life out of companies like Applebees. It’s not a David and Goliath story lol. These guys aren’t winning because they’re the underdog.
The problem in the old days is that you would see a chef driven concept as an investor and immediately think about how impossible it would be to scale that very good restaurant up beyond one city at most. Like it might make money in one place where you could keep the standards high and source just the right food… but move it across town and make the same chef manage both and how does it go?
It turns out that chef can manage 5 restaurants no problem if his produce guy is amazing, his meat guy is amazing, nobody every misses a delivery, and he doesn’t have to worry about worrying about accounting or regulatory problems etc. Suddenly his only job is to control the kitchen in 5 places and make sure they are producing what they need to produce to be competitive. Much easier job.
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Thee WAFFLE HOUSE is one of the most underrated dining experiences known to man. I’m WH for life.
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I watched 30 seconds and felt like I’d seen a 3-hour movie. When will this end? IT’S NOT EVEN HALFWAY OVER?!
Checked out for an hour and come back to…853 deaths with a ton of state data out. Seems really bad. We haven’t broken 1147 deaths since May. That seems very possible.
I just found out that a bridesmaid at a wedding where I was a groomsman had it. She’s literally the only person I know so far and I haven’t talked to her in ten years.
I don’t know anyone that got Covid-19 and I’ve never heard of a Kansas City strip steak.
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Hard to stay serious when things are so god damn depressing and it seems like nothing can be done.
I’ve had friends die and permanently injured from this. I understood why it happened in NYC because you couldn’t expect it, but there’s no reason for this.
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