Why did Texas and Florida have abnormally low death rates in April? I’m not denying that what you say is a part of what is going on now but I havent heard anything compelling to explain how they also had like 1/4 the death rate of similarly situated states in April while simultaneously having almost no testing. Texas was literally last in per capita testing towards the end of April.
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Yeah I mean to say I’ll allow some fudging too.
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So that’s 13 cases per million over the last month.
Orange County Florida (Orlando) has had 7,963 cases per million over the last month. Here in Philadelphia, where things are going pretty well, we’ve had 1,732 cases per million over the last month.
We’re now < 2 months away from the start of school and will almost certainly take fewer precautions than you guys.
Not directly COVID related but I can’t escape the parallels: the air in Los Angeles today is literally unhealthy because of all the fireworks people set off yesterday.
I mean I hope my family and loved ones survive and the world isn’t ruined forever, but humanity deserves everything we’re getting and more.
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I can’t believe how badly Obama has fucked this up.
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your post
Lower cfr due to better testing
Underreporting (regular and deceit)
Those are the top ones. I’m guessing in that order but it’s a guess.
I’m 100% that at >1% contagious people it will get into the old folks homes.
Do we have demographics on current cases vs. cases in March?
Things USA#1 is ranked USA#1 in among the developed world:
Covid R0
COVID cases
[ ] Testing
Bullshit
[ ] Freedom
Freedumb
Racist statues
Seriously we’re just giving dumb away at no charge.
(I didn’t actually look up my R0 and cases claim, it’s possible we’re like #2 or something. I also didn’t look up racist statues, but I’m pretty confident.)
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Tests were still reported at a normal rate just the percent positive dropped. More likely that death reporting is lagging tbh.
I’d expect case reporting effects to be felt early to mid next week
Obama GOAT in ROW…
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Isn’t USA#1 in absolute number of tests done?
Methodist’s leaders, who were planning for a surge and had been dealing with a stream of coronavirus patients since March, pointed to the most important difference between Houston now and New York then: the patient mix. The majority of new patients here are younger and healthier and are not as severely ill as many were in New York City, where officials report that over 22,000 are likely to have died from the disease.
Isn’t this strong evidence that the current population of infected people is much younger than back in April? It sounds like ICU-survival rate prognosis is a lot higher for these younger people which would explain fewer deaths for the moment.
However of course we don’t know about ICU-long term health issues rate, which is my primary personal fear.
Seems like the young’s getting infected at higher rates than before has to be a thing.
Many olds I know are taking this super seriously. Youngs have been sent out to man the cappuccino machines meanwhile.
Just increased precautions in nursing homes (ie not sending COVID people directly into them) has to make a big impact.
The fact that youngs are depressing the current mortality rate plays into the D&G side, not into the smooth sailing side.
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Florida banned visitation to nursing homes on 3/15, an action that has been cited as preventing outbreaks. https://s33330.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/DEM-ORDER-NO.-20-006-In-re-COVID-19-Public-Health-Emergency-Issued-March-15-2020.pdf
Compare with New York, where they sent COVID patients to nursing homes, and disallowed the homes to require testing before admission. https://skillednursingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2020/03/DOH_COVID19__NHAdmissionsReadmissions__032520_1585166684475_0.pdf
Or Massachusetts, where many homes were failing inspections: Before coronavirus, 2 out of 3 Mass. nursing homes broke the rules for preventing outbreaks - The Boston Globe .
So nursing home deaths as a fraction of overall deaths would be one statistic to compare, and the age distribution of deaths in each state would be another (as a proxy for nursing home deaths if the first statistic is unavailable).
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I’ve been watching the ‘Sailing Zatara’ youtubes for 2+ years now.
Keith did a blog c. 2 weeks ago about his opinions on Covid which didn’t go down well at all with all the NZ marinas that had recently helped them out. Sailing Zaztara took the video down after the dislike to like ratio was c. 9:1 (he was bitching about social distancing in store and didn’t GAF)
Basically, the US family got chased out of NZ and now they’re not be allowed into Tonga :)
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What’s happened with Sweden? Their new cases and deaths have gone down dramatically. The only restriction I see is no visits to nursing homes.
Given the huge disparity in death rates at different age groups, it does seem that nursing home safety plus a change in the age distribution of new cases could explain most of what’s happening.
It’s still pretty bad in AZ nursing homes:
“When we first started our lockdown in Arizona, our long-term care facilities were hit the hardest,” said Dana Marie Kennedy, Arizona state director at AARP.
“At one point, we had 82% to 84% of deaths coming from long-term care facilities. Today, that number has gone down to 55% of the deaths in a long-term care setting.”
Is this something we really need to prove through disastrous consequences? Can we just skip to the “well, duh” part?
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